Carbon stored in live ponderosa pines in the Sierra Nevada will not return to pre-drought (2012) levels during the 21st century due to bark beetle outbreaks
Outbreaks of several bark beetle species can develop rapidly in response to drought and may result in large transfers of carbon (C) stored in live trees to C stored in dead trees (10s of Tg C yr-1 in the western U.S. alone), which over time will be released back to the atmosphere. The western pine b...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2023-03-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Environmental Science |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2023.1112756/full |
| _version_ | 1827991043588489216 |
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| author | Zachary J. Robbins Zachary J. Robbins Chonggang Xu Alex Jonko Rutuja Chitra-Tarak Christopher J. Fettig Jennifer Costanza Leif A. Mortenson Brian H. Aukema Lara M. Kueppers Robert M. Scheller |
| author_facet | Zachary J. Robbins Zachary J. Robbins Chonggang Xu Alex Jonko Rutuja Chitra-Tarak Christopher J. Fettig Jennifer Costanza Leif A. Mortenson Brian H. Aukema Lara M. Kueppers Robert M. Scheller |
| author_sort | Zachary J. Robbins |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Outbreaks of several bark beetle species can develop rapidly in response to drought and may result in large transfers of carbon (C) stored in live trees to C stored in dead trees (10s of Tg C yr-1 in the western U.S. alone), which over time will be released back to the atmosphere. The western pine beetle (WPB) outbreak incited by the 2012–2015 mega-drought in the Sierra Nevada, California, U.S., could portend more frequent and/or severe bark beetle outbreaks as the temperature warms and drought frequency and intensity increase in the future. However, changes in the frequency and/or severity (resultant levels of host tree mortality) of beetle outbreaks are difficult to predict as outbreaks are complex with non-linear and eruptive processes primarily driven by interactions among beetle populations, the demography of hosts and other tree species, and climate and weather. Using an insect phenology and tree defense model, we projected the future likelihood of WPB outbreaks in the Sierra Nevada with climate drivers from different Earth System Models. Our goal was to understand how host (ponderosa pine, PIPO) recovery and future warming and drought affect the frequency and severity of WPB outbreaks and their C consequences. Our projections suggested that by 2100 the C stored in live PIPO (mean: 1.98 kg C m-2, 95% CI: 1.74–2.21 kg C m-2) will not return to levels that occurred before the 2012–2015 drought (2012: ∼2.30 kg C m-2) due to future WPB outbreaks. However, differences in climate models indicate a wide range of possible WPB outbreak frequencies and severities. Our results suggest that total plot basal area is the most significant factor in the mortality rate of PIPO by WPB in any given year, followed by drought severity and temperature. High levels of host basal area, higher temperature, and extreme drought all contribute to the frequency and severity of future WPB outbreaks. While PIPO basal area may decline under increased drought and warming, limiting high-stand basal area (>60 m2 ha-1) may reduce the severity of future WPB outbreaks in the Sierra Nevada. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-10T00:44:31Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-f29be63d253347baad6cced61fc4a7f2 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2296-665X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-10T00:44:31Z |
| publishDate | 2023-03-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Environmental Science |
| spelling | doaj.art-f29be63d253347baad6cced61fc4a7f22023-03-14T04:23:43ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Environmental Science2296-665X2023-03-011110.3389/fenvs.2023.11127561112756Carbon stored in live ponderosa pines in the Sierra Nevada will not return to pre-drought (2012) levels during the 21st century due to bark beetle outbreaksZachary J. Robbins0Zachary J. Robbins1Chonggang Xu2Alex Jonko3Rutuja Chitra-Tarak4Christopher J. Fettig5Jennifer Costanza6Leif A. Mortenson7Brian H. Aukema8Lara M. Kueppers9Robert M. Scheller10Earth and Environmental Science Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, United StatesDepartment of Forestry and Environmental Resources, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, United StatesEarth and Environmental Science Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, United StatesEarth and Environmental Science Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, United StatesEarth and Environmental Science Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, United StatesPacific Southwest Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Davis, CA, United StatesSouthern Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Research Triangle Park, NC, United StatesPacific Southwest Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Davis, CA, United StatesDepartment of Entomology, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN, United StatesEnergy and Resources Group, University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, United StatesDepartment of Forestry and Environmental Resources, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, United StatesOutbreaks of several bark beetle species can develop rapidly in response to drought and may result in large transfers of carbon (C) stored in live trees to C stored in dead trees (10s of Tg C yr-1 in the western U.S. alone), which over time will be released back to the atmosphere. The western pine beetle (WPB) outbreak incited by the 2012–2015 mega-drought in the Sierra Nevada, California, U.S., could portend more frequent and/or severe bark beetle outbreaks as the temperature warms and drought frequency and intensity increase in the future. However, changes in the frequency and/or severity (resultant levels of host tree mortality) of beetle outbreaks are difficult to predict as outbreaks are complex with non-linear and eruptive processes primarily driven by interactions among beetle populations, the demography of hosts and other tree species, and climate and weather. Using an insect phenology and tree defense model, we projected the future likelihood of WPB outbreaks in the Sierra Nevada with climate drivers from different Earth System Models. Our goal was to understand how host (ponderosa pine, PIPO) recovery and future warming and drought affect the frequency and severity of WPB outbreaks and their C consequences. Our projections suggested that by 2100 the C stored in live PIPO (mean: 1.98 kg C m-2, 95% CI: 1.74–2.21 kg C m-2) will not return to levels that occurred before the 2012–2015 drought (2012: ∼2.30 kg C m-2) due to future WPB outbreaks. However, differences in climate models indicate a wide range of possible WPB outbreak frequencies and severities. Our results suggest that total plot basal area is the most significant factor in the mortality rate of PIPO by WPB in any given year, followed by drought severity and temperature. High levels of host basal area, higher temperature, and extreme drought all contribute to the frequency and severity of future WPB outbreaks. While PIPO basal area may decline under increased drought and warming, limiting high-stand basal area (>60 m2 ha-1) may reduce the severity of future WPB outbreaks in the Sierra Nevada.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2023.1112756/fullbark beetlesclimate changeDendroctonus brevicomisforest disturbanceforest recoveryPinus ponderosa |
| spellingShingle | Zachary J. Robbins Zachary J. Robbins Chonggang Xu Alex Jonko Rutuja Chitra-Tarak Christopher J. Fettig Jennifer Costanza Leif A. Mortenson Brian H. Aukema Lara M. Kueppers Robert M. Scheller Carbon stored in live ponderosa pines in the Sierra Nevada will not return to pre-drought (2012) levels during the 21st century due to bark beetle outbreaks Frontiers in Environmental Science bark beetles climate change Dendroctonus brevicomis forest disturbance forest recovery Pinus ponderosa |
| title | Carbon stored in live ponderosa pines in the Sierra Nevada will not return to pre-drought (2012) levels during the 21st century due to bark beetle outbreaks |
| title_full | Carbon stored in live ponderosa pines in the Sierra Nevada will not return to pre-drought (2012) levels during the 21st century due to bark beetle outbreaks |
| title_fullStr | Carbon stored in live ponderosa pines in the Sierra Nevada will not return to pre-drought (2012) levels during the 21st century due to bark beetle outbreaks |
| title_full_unstemmed | Carbon stored in live ponderosa pines in the Sierra Nevada will not return to pre-drought (2012) levels during the 21st century due to bark beetle outbreaks |
| title_short | Carbon stored in live ponderosa pines in the Sierra Nevada will not return to pre-drought (2012) levels during the 21st century due to bark beetle outbreaks |
| title_sort | carbon stored in live ponderosa pines in the sierra nevada will not return to pre drought 2012 levels during the 21st century due to bark beetle outbreaks |
| topic | bark beetles climate change Dendroctonus brevicomis forest disturbance forest recovery Pinus ponderosa |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2023.1112756/full |
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