Extracting causation from millennial-scale climate fluctuations in the last 800 kyr
Abstract The detection of cause-effect relationships from the analysis of paleoclimatic records is a crucial step to disentangle the main mechanisms at work in the climate system. Here, we show that the approach based on the generalized Fluctuation–Dissipation Relation, complemented by the analysis...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2022-09-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-18406-2 |
| _version_ | 1811267657196896256 |
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| author | Marco Baldovin Fabio Cecconi Antonello Provenzale Angelo Vulpiani |
| author_facet | Marco Baldovin Fabio Cecconi Antonello Provenzale Angelo Vulpiani |
| author_sort | Marco Baldovin |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The detection of cause-effect relationships from the analysis of paleoclimatic records is a crucial step to disentangle the main mechanisms at work in the climate system. Here, we show that the approach based on the generalized Fluctuation–Dissipation Relation, complemented by the analysis of the Transfer Entropy, allows the causal links to be identified between temperature, CO $$_2$$ 2 concentration and astronomical forcing during the glacial cycles of the last 800 kyr based on Antarctic ice core records. When considering the whole spectrum of time scales, the results of the analysis suggest that temperature drives CO $$_2$$ 2 concentration, or that are both driven by the common astronomical forcing. However, considering only millennial-scale fluctuations, the results reveal the presence of more complex causal links, indicating that CO $$_2$$ 2 variations contribute to driving the changes of temperature on such time scales. The results also evidence a slow temporal variability in the strength of the millennial-scale causal links between temperature and CO $$_2$$ 2 concentration. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-12T21:06:42Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-f2bb185b0a184675828bf5b57822e2a7 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-12T21:06:42Z |
| publishDate | 2022-09-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj.art-f2bb185b0a184675828bf5b57822e2a72022-12-22T03:16:41ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222022-09-0112111210.1038/s41598-022-18406-2Extracting causation from millennial-scale climate fluctuations in the last 800 kyrMarco Baldovin0Fabio Cecconi1Antonello Provenzale2Angelo Vulpiani3CNRS, LPTMS, Université Paris-SaclayCNR-Istituto dei Sistemi Complessi and INFNCNR-Istituto di Geoscienze e GeorisorseDipartimento di Fisica, Università “Sapienza”Abstract The detection of cause-effect relationships from the analysis of paleoclimatic records is a crucial step to disentangle the main mechanisms at work in the climate system. Here, we show that the approach based on the generalized Fluctuation–Dissipation Relation, complemented by the analysis of the Transfer Entropy, allows the causal links to be identified between temperature, CO $$_2$$ 2 concentration and astronomical forcing during the glacial cycles of the last 800 kyr based on Antarctic ice core records. When considering the whole spectrum of time scales, the results of the analysis suggest that temperature drives CO $$_2$$ 2 concentration, or that are both driven by the common astronomical forcing. However, considering only millennial-scale fluctuations, the results reveal the presence of more complex causal links, indicating that CO $$_2$$ 2 variations contribute to driving the changes of temperature on such time scales. The results also evidence a slow temporal variability in the strength of the millennial-scale causal links between temperature and CO $$_2$$ 2 concentration.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-18406-2 |
| spellingShingle | Marco Baldovin Fabio Cecconi Antonello Provenzale Angelo Vulpiani Extracting causation from millennial-scale climate fluctuations in the last 800 kyr Scientific Reports |
| title | Extracting causation from millennial-scale climate fluctuations in the last 800 kyr |
| title_full | Extracting causation from millennial-scale climate fluctuations in the last 800 kyr |
| title_fullStr | Extracting causation from millennial-scale climate fluctuations in the last 800 kyr |
| title_full_unstemmed | Extracting causation from millennial-scale climate fluctuations in the last 800 kyr |
| title_short | Extracting causation from millennial-scale climate fluctuations in the last 800 kyr |
| title_sort | extracting causation from millennial scale climate fluctuations in the last 800 kyr |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-18406-2 |
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