Global crop output and irrigation water requirements under a changing climate
The anthropogenic increases in CO2 atmospheric concentrations are expected to lead to multiple and possibly opposing effects on crop performance with important implications for crop water productivity. The study integrates the global responses to mounting concentrations at three levels – climatic, c...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2019-03-01
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| Series: | Heliyon |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405844018336661 |
| _version_ | 1818160201948200960 |
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| author | Victor Nechifor Matthew Winning |
| author_facet | Victor Nechifor Matthew Winning |
| author_sort | Victor Nechifor |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The anthropogenic increases in CO2 atmospheric concentrations are expected to lead to multiple and possibly opposing effects on crop performance with important implications for crop water productivity. The study integrates the global responses to mounting concentrations at three levels – climatic, cropping and economic – to determine the deviations in crop production and irrigation water requirements from a 'no climate change' socioeconomic development storyline. The biophysical effects are considered comprehensively for eight crop classes by taking into account alterations both to rainfed and irrigation yields, and to irrigation water intensities. These changes in crop growing conditions are explored in the 2004–2050 timeframe across two concentrations pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP 8.5) with the inclusion of the CO2 fertilisation effect. The economic responses are determined through a global water CGE model (RESCU-Water) comprising a bottom-up representation of crop systems. Changes in climatic conditions reduce crop output and depress the global water demand for irrigated crops in spite of an increase in irrigation water intensities. Discrepancies in crop production impacts between tropical and temperate regions increase with CO2 concentration levels. Embedding CO2 fertilisation more than offsets these adverse effects by determining a net increase in crop production and a reduction in irrigation water requirements at a regional level. The resulting water savings potential, even in the lower concentrations scenario (RCP2.6), warrant more research with the aim of reducing the different classes of uncertainty regarding the effects of CO2 fertilisation. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-11T15:58:07Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-f2c8ac070300446fa0a12b704b37763d |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2405-8440 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-11T15:58:07Z |
| publishDate | 2019-03-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Heliyon |
| spelling | doaj.art-f2c8ac070300446fa0a12b704b37763d2022-12-22T00:59:22ZengElsevierHeliyon2405-84402019-03-0153e01266Global crop output and irrigation water requirements under a changing climateVictor Nechifor0Matthew Winning1Corresponding author.; UCL Institute for Sustainable Resources, 14 Upper Woburn Place, WC1H 0NN London, United KingdomUCL Institute for Sustainable Resources, 14 Upper Woburn Place, WC1H 0NN London, United KingdomThe anthropogenic increases in CO2 atmospheric concentrations are expected to lead to multiple and possibly opposing effects on crop performance with important implications for crop water productivity. The study integrates the global responses to mounting concentrations at three levels – climatic, cropping and economic – to determine the deviations in crop production and irrigation water requirements from a 'no climate change' socioeconomic development storyline. The biophysical effects are considered comprehensively for eight crop classes by taking into account alterations both to rainfed and irrigation yields, and to irrigation water intensities. These changes in crop growing conditions are explored in the 2004–2050 timeframe across two concentrations pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP 8.5) with the inclusion of the CO2 fertilisation effect. The economic responses are determined through a global water CGE model (RESCU-Water) comprising a bottom-up representation of crop systems. Changes in climatic conditions reduce crop output and depress the global water demand for irrigated crops in spite of an increase in irrigation water intensities. Discrepancies in crop production impacts between tropical and temperate regions increase with CO2 concentration levels. Embedding CO2 fertilisation more than offsets these adverse effects by determining a net increase in crop production and a reduction in irrigation water requirements at a regional level. The resulting water savings potential, even in the lower concentrations scenario (RCP2.6), warrant more research with the aim of reducing the different classes of uncertainty regarding the effects of CO2 fertilisation.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405844018336661Environmental scienceEconomicsAgriculture |
| spellingShingle | Victor Nechifor Matthew Winning Global crop output and irrigation water requirements under a changing climate Heliyon Environmental science Economics Agriculture |
| title | Global crop output and irrigation water requirements under a changing climate |
| title_full | Global crop output and irrigation water requirements under a changing climate |
| title_fullStr | Global crop output and irrigation water requirements under a changing climate |
| title_full_unstemmed | Global crop output and irrigation water requirements under a changing climate |
| title_short | Global crop output and irrigation water requirements under a changing climate |
| title_sort | global crop output and irrigation water requirements under a changing climate |
| topic | Environmental science Economics Agriculture |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405844018336661 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT victornechifor globalcropoutputandirrigationwaterrequirementsunderachangingclimate AT matthewwinning globalcropoutputandirrigationwaterrequirementsunderachangingclimate |