Predicting the outcomes and costs for a cohort of 426 patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) in Bulgaria through a Markov model
The aim was to estimate the economic burden, as well as rate of progression of COPD for a cohort of 426 patients for a 10-year period. A total of 426 patients from 19 regions with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease were enrolled in a representative, ambispective, national study for Bulgaria. Pati...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Pensoft Publishers
2019-07-01
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| Series: | Pharmacia |
| Online Access: | https://pharmacia.pensoft.net/article/35162/download/pdf/ |
| _version_ | 1818384393617539072 |
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| author | Konstantin Tachkov Konstantin Mitov Alexandra Savova |
| author_facet | Konstantin Tachkov Konstantin Mitov Alexandra Savova |
| author_sort | Konstantin Tachkov |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The aim was to estimate the economic burden, as well as rate of progression of COPD for a cohort of 426 patients for a 10-year period. A total of 426 patients from 19 regions with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease were enrolled in a representative, ambispective, national study for Bulgaria. Patients were recorded on disease stage, occupation, smoking habits and medication. Cost of treatment was calculated and a 10-year one-way Markov model was used by employing transition probabilities and quality of life data from available literature. Costs and outcomes were recorded and a cost-effectiveness acceptability curve (CEAC) was established.
Out of all patients included in the study 288 were non-smokers with a mortality percentage after 10 years of 42.7%. Smokers showed faster transition rate with 139 of them transitioning to more severe states and mortality was 54.6%. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was 863.75 BGN. Patients who smoked had a lower quality of life – cumulatively for the 10-year period QALY = 623.51 for smokers vs. 1557.51 for non-smokers, but also lower costs for treatment (538 007.52 BGN vs. 1 344 757.95 BGN) accounted by the high transition rate and mortality amongst that group. Relatively few non-smokers transitioned from a less severe to a more severe state (6%), while most of the very severe stage patients experienced a lethal outcome within 10 years (81%).
Despite the higher costs associated with the disease, the Quality of Life and lower transition probability would enable patients to live a normal life. The ICER was well below the WHO threshold. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-14T03:21:33Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-f2e37a1730404b21b76659221c2c420f |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2603-557X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-14T03:21:33Z |
| publishDate | 2019-07-01 |
| publisher | Pensoft Publishers |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Pharmacia |
| spelling | doaj.art-f2e37a1730404b21b76659221c2c420f2022-12-21T23:19:01ZengPensoft PublishersPharmacia2603-557X2019-07-01662535710.3897/pharmacia.66.e3516235162Predicting the outcomes and costs for a cohort of 426 patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) in Bulgaria through a Markov modelKonstantin Tachkov0Konstantin Mitov1Alexandra Savova2Medical University of SofiaMedical University of SofiaMedical University of SofiaThe aim was to estimate the economic burden, as well as rate of progression of COPD for a cohort of 426 patients for a 10-year period. A total of 426 patients from 19 regions with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease were enrolled in a representative, ambispective, national study for Bulgaria. Patients were recorded on disease stage, occupation, smoking habits and medication. Cost of treatment was calculated and a 10-year one-way Markov model was used by employing transition probabilities and quality of life data from available literature. Costs and outcomes were recorded and a cost-effectiveness acceptability curve (CEAC) was established. Out of all patients included in the study 288 were non-smokers with a mortality percentage after 10 years of 42.7%. Smokers showed faster transition rate with 139 of them transitioning to more severe states and mortality was 54.6%. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was 863.75 BGN. Patients who smoked had a lower quality of life – cumulatively for the 10-year period QALY = 623.51 for smokers vs. 1557.51 for non-smokers, but also lower costs for treatment (538 007.52 BGN vs. 1 344 757.95 BGN) accounted by the high transition rate and mortality amongst that group. Relatively few non-smokers transitioned from a less severe to a more severe state (6%), while most of the very severe stage patients experienced a lethal outcome within 10 years (81%). Despite the higher costs associated with the disease, the Quality of Life and lower transition probability would enable patients to live a normal life. The ICER was well below the WHO threshold.https://pharmacia.pensoft.net/article/35162/download/pdf/ |
| spellingShingle | Konstantin Tachkov Konstantin Mitov Alexandra Savova Predicting the outcomes and costs for a cohort of 426 patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) in Bulgaria through a Markov model Pharmacia |
| title | Predicting the outcomes and costs for a cohort of 426 patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) in Bulgaria through a Markov model |
| title_full | Predicting the outcomes and costs for a cohort of 426 patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) in Bulgaria through a Markov model |
| title_fullStr | Predicting the outcomes and costs for a cohort of 426 patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) in Bulgaria through a Markov model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Predicting the outcomes and costs for a cohort of 426 patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) in Bulgaria through a Markov model |
| title_short | Predicting the outcomes and costs for a cohort of 426 patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) in Bulgaria through a Markov model |
| title_sort | predicting the outcomes and costs for a cohort of 426 patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease copd in bulgaria through a markov model |
| url | https://pharmacia.pensoft.net/article/35162/download/pdf/ |
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