Lockdowns exert selection pressure on overdispersion of SARS-CoV-2 variants
The SARS-CoV-2 ancestral strain has caused pronounced superspreading events, reflecting a disease characterized by overdispersion, where about 10% of infected people cause 80% of infections. New variants of the disease have different person-to-person variability in viral load, suggesting for example...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2022-09-01
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| Series: | Epidemics |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S175543652200055X |
| _version_ | 1828147787365089280 |
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| author | Bjarke Frost Nielsen Andreas Eilersen Lone Simonsen Kim Sneppen |
| author_facet | Bjarke Frost Nielsen Andreas Eilersen Lone Simonsen Kim Sneppen |
| author_sort | Bjarke Frost Nielsen |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The SARS-CoV-2 ancestral strain has caused pronounced superspreading events, reflecting a disease characterized by overdispersion, where about 10% of infected people cause 80% of infections. New variants of the disease have different person-to-person variability in viral load, suggesting for example that the Alpha (B.1.1.7) variant is more infectious but relatively less prone to superspreading. Meanwhile, non-pharmaceutical mitigation of the pandemic has focused on limiting social contacts (lockdowns, regulations on gatherings) and decreasing transmission risk through mask wearing and social distancing. Using a mathematical model, we show that the competitive advantage of disease variants may heavily depend on the restrictions imposed. In particular, we find that lockdowns exert an evolutionary pressure which favours variants with lower levels of overdispersion. Our results suggest that overdispersion is an evolutionarily unstable trait, with a tendency for more homogeneously spreading variants to eventually dominate. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-11T21:05:27Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-f2f2866edd404903ace3895c8ed186aa |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1755-4365 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-11T21:05:27Z |
| publishDate | 2022-09-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Epidemics |
| spelling | doaj.art-f2f2866edd404903ace3895c8ed186aa2022-12-22T04:03:21ZengElsevierEpidemics1755-43652022-09-0140100613Lockdowns exert selection pressure on overdispersion of SARS-CoV-2 variantsBjarke Frost Nielsen0Andreas Eilersen1Lone Simonsen2Kim Sneppen3Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Blegdamsvej 17, 2100 Copenhagen, Denmark; Department of Science and Environment, Roskilde University, Universitetsvej 1, 4000 Roskilde, DenmarkNiels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Blegdamsvej 17, 2100 Copenhagen, DenmarkDepartment of Science and Environment, Roskilde University, Universitetsvej 1, 4000 Roskilde, DenmarkNiels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Blegdamsvej 17, 2100 Copenhagen, Denmark; Corresponding author.The SARS-CoV-2 ancestral strain has caused pronounced superspreading events, reflecting a disease characterized by overdispersion, where about 10% of infected people cause 80% of infections. New variants of the disease have different person-to-person variability in viral load, suggesting for example that the Alpha (B.1.1.7) variant is more infectious but relatively less prone to superspreading. Meanwhile, non-pharmaceutical mitigation of the pandemic has focused on limiting social contacts (lockdowns, regulations on gatherings) and decreasing transmission risk through mask wearing and social distancing. Using a mathematical model, we show that the competitive advantage of disease variants may heavily depend on the restrictions imposed. In particular, we find that lockdowns exert an evolutionary pressure which favours variants with lower levels of overdispersion. Our results suggest that overdispersion is an evolutionarily unstable trait, with a tendency for more homogeneously spreading variants to eventually dominate.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S175543652200055XOverdispersionEvolutionSuperspreadingNon-pharmaceutical interventions |
| spellingShingle | Bjarke Frost Nielsen Andreas Eilersen Lone Simonsen Kim Sneppen Lockdowns exert selection pressure on overdispersion of SARS-CoV-2 variants Epidemics Overdispersion Evolution Superspreading Non-pharmaceutical interventions |
| title | Lockdowns exert selection pressure on overdispersion of SARS-CoV-2 variants |
| title_full | Lockdowns exert selection pressure on overdispersion of SARS-CoV-2 variants |
| title_fullStr | Lockdowns exert selection pressure on overdispersion of SARS-CoV-2 variants |
| title_full_unstemmed | Lockdowns exert selection pressure on overdispersion of SARS-CoV-2 variants |
| title_short | Lockdowns exert selection pressure on overdispersion of SARS-CoV-2 variants |
| title_sort | lockdowns exert selection pressure on overdispersion of sars cov 2 variants |
| topic | Overdispersion Evolution Superspreading Non-pharmaceutical interventions |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S175543652200055X |
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