Monitoring climate change, drought conditions and wheat production in Eurasia: the case study of Kazakhstan

Wheat is an important global food security commodity. Kazakhstan is currently a producer and exporter of high-quality wheat to global markets. The most important wheat-growing regions, which lie in the northern part of Kazakhstan, are based on spring-sown rain-fed cultivation and are susceptible to...

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Main Authors: Marat Karatayev, Michèle Clarke, Vitaliy Salnikov, Roza Bekseitova, Marhaba Nizamova
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Elsevier 2022-01-01
Series:Heliyon
Subjects:
Online Access:http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405844021027638
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author Marat Karatayev
Michèle Clarke
Vitaliy Salnikov
Roza Bekseitova
Marhaba Nizamova
author_facet Marat Karatayev
Michèle Clarke
Vitaliy Salnikov
Roza Bekseitova
Marhaba Nizamova
author_sort Marat Karatayev
collection DOAJ
description Wheat is an important global food security commodity. Kazakhstan is currently a producer and exporter of high-quality wheat to global markets. The most important wheat-growing regions, which lie in the northern part of Kazakhstan, are based on spring-sown rain-fed cultivation and are susceptible to climate change and drought. Using the monthly surface air temperature and precipitation data from 1950 to 2020 from 110 meteorological stations over Kazakhstan and in addition wheat cultivation data, the research aims to analyze climate change, drought occurrence, and wheat cultivation trends in Kazakhstan in recent 70 years and investigate relationships between wheat productivity and drought. The linear method and two drought indices (Standardized Precipitation Index and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index) and in addition, Pearson's correlation coefficient have been used to characterise the climate change trends and vulnerability of agriculture in Kazakhstan to drought. The geographic information system (GIS) was applied to display climate change, drought, and wheat referenced information. The research has shown that the 70-year (1950–2020) linear rates of annual mean surface temperature in Kazakhstan have significantly increased (on average 0.31 °C per decade) with the precipitation trends are not obvious and fluctuated trends of drought. The wheat yield demonstrates strong internal variability and wheat yields were significantly correlated with 3-month June and July drought indices over the period of 1950–2020. The results underline the potential susceptibility of wheat yields in Kazakhstan to any future reductions in precipitation and increase in drought occurrence and intensity.
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spelling doaj.art-f2ffa6b2284649eaa40267853d2540302022-12-21T17:15:20ZengElsevierHeliyon2405-84402022-01-0181e08660Monitoring climate change, drought conditions and wheat production in Eurasia: the case study of KazakhstanMarat Karatayev0Michèle Clarke1Vitaliy Salnikov2Roza Bekseitova3Marhaba Nizamova4Institute of System Sciences, Innovation and Sustainability Research, Karl-Franzens University of Graz, Merangasse 18-1, A-8010, Graz, Austria; Energy Technologies Research Institute, University of Nottingham, Innovation Park, NG7 2TU, Nottingham, United Kingdom; Corresponding author.Energy Technologies Research Institute, University of Nottingham, Innovation Park, NG7 2TU, Nottingham, United Kingdom; School of Geography, University of Nottingham, University Park, NG7 2RD, Nottingham, United KingdomSchool of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Al-Farabi ave. 71, 050000, Almaty, KazakhstanSchool of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Al-Farabi ave. 71, 050000, Almaty, KazakhstanSchool of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Al-Farabi ave. 71, 050000, Almaty, KazakhstanWheat is an important global food security commodity. Kazakhstan is currently a producer and exporter of high-quality wheat to global markets. The most important wheat-growing regions, which lie in the northern part of Kazakhstan, are based on spring-sown rain-fed cultivation and are susceptible to climate change and drought. Using the monthly surface air temperature and precipitation data from 1950 to 2020 from 110 meteorological stations over Kazakhstan and in addition wheat cultivation data, the research aims to analyze climate change, drought occurrence, and wheat cultivation trends in Kazakhstan in recent 70 years and investigate relationships between wheat productivity and drought. The linear method and two drought indices (Standardized Precipitation Index and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index) and in addition, Pearson's correlation coefficient have been used to characterise the climate change trends and vulnerability of agriculture in Kazakhstan to drought. The geographic information system (GIS) was applied to display climate change, drought, and wheat referenced information. The research has shown that the 70-year (1950–2020) linear rates of annual mean surface temperature in Kazakhstan have significantly increased (on average 0.31 °C per decade) with the precipitation trends are not obvious and fluctuated trends of drought. The wheat yield demonstrates strong internal variability and wheat yields were significantly correlated with 3-month June and July drought indices over the period of 1950–2020. The results underline the potential susceptibility of wheat yields in Kazakhstan to any future reductions in precipitation and increase in drought occurrence and intensity.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405844021027638Wheat yieldFood securityClimate changeDrought trendsEurasiaKazakhstan
spellingShingle Marat Karatayev
Michèle Clarke
Vitaliy Salnikov
Roza Bekseitova
Marhaba Nizamova
Monitoring climate change, drought conditions and wheat production in Eurasia: the case study of Kazakhstan
Heliyon
Wheat yield
Food security
Climate change
Drought trends
Eurasia
Kazakhstan
title Monitoring climate change, drought conditions and wheat production in Eurasia: the case study of Kazakhstan
title_full Monitoring climate change, drought conditions and wheat production in Eurasia: the case study of Kazakhstan
title_fullStr Monitoring climate change, drought conditions and wheat production in Eurasia: the case study of Kazakhstan
title_full_unstemmed Monitoring climate change, drought conditions and wheat production in Eurasia: the case study of Kazakhstan
title_short Monitoring climate change, drought conditions and wheat production in Eurasia: the case study of Kazakhstan
title_sort monitoring climate change drought conditions and wheat production in eurasia the case study of kazakhstan
topic Wheat yield
Food security
Climate change
Drought trends
Eurasia
Kazakhstan
url http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405844021027638
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AT vitaliysalnikov monitoringclimatechangedroughtconditionsandwheatproductionineurasiathecasestudyofkazakhstan
AT rozabekseitova monitoringclimatechangedroughtconditionsandwheatproductionineurasiathecasestudyofkazakhstan
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