Numerical Modeling of the Dynamics of Malaria Transmission in a Highly Endemic Region of India
Abstract Using a dynamical model (VECTRI) for malaria transmission that accounts for the influence of population and climatic conditions, malaria transmission dynamics is investigated for a highly endemic region (state of Odisha) in India. The model is first calibrated over the region, and subsequen...
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| Format: | Article |
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Nature Portfolio
2019-08-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-47212-6 |
| _version_ | 1830208568327929856 |
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| author | Ruchi Singh Parihar Prasanta Kumar Bal Vaibhav Kumar Saroj Kanta Mishra Sandeep Sahany Popat Salunke Sushil Kumar Dash Ramesh Chand Dhiman |
| author_facet | Ruchi Singh Parihar Prasanta Kumar Bal Vaibhav Kumar Saroj Kanta Mishra Sandeep Sahany Popat Salunke Sushil Kumar Dash Ramesh Chand Dhiman |
| author_sort | Ruchi Singh Parihar |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Using a dynamical model (VECTRI) for malaria transmission that accounts for the influence of population and climatic conditions, malaria transmission dynamics is investigated for a highly endemic region (state of Odisha) in India. The model is first calibrated over the region, and subsequently numerical simulations are carried out for the period 2000–2013. Using both model and observations we find that temperature, adult mosquito population, and infective biting rates have increased over this period, and the malaria vector abundance is higher during the summer monsoon season. Regionally, the intensity of malaria transmission is found to be higher in the north, central and southern districts of Odisha where the mosquito populations and the number of infective bites are more and mainly in the forest or mountainous ecotypes. We also find that the peak of the malaria transmission occurs when the monthly mean temperature is in the range of ~28–29 °C, and monthly rainfall accumulation in the range of ~200–360 mm. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-18T04:51:42Z |
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| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-18T04:51:42Z |
| publishDate | 2019-08-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
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| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj.art-f30baf77f7bd45428018e813622df2ac2022-12-21T21:20:24ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222019-08-01911910.1038/s41598-019-47212-6Numerical Modeling of the Dynamics of Malaria Transmission in a Highly Endemic Region of IndiaRuchi Singh Parihar0Prasanta Kumar Bal1Vaibhav Kumar2Saroj Kanta Mishra3Sandeep Sahany4Popat Salunke5Sushil Kumar Dash6Ramesh Chand Dhiman7Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology DelhiCentre for Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology DelhiCentre for Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology DelhiCentre for Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology DelhiCentre for Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology DelhiCentre for Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology DelhiCentre for Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology DelhiNational Institute of Malaria Research (ICMR)Abstract Using a dynamical model (VECTRI) for malaria transmission that accounts for the influence of population and climatic conditions, malaria transmission dynamics is investigated for a highly endemic region (state of Odisha) in India. The model is first calibrated over the region, and subsequently numerical simulations are carried out for the period 2000–2013. Using both model and observations we find that temperature, adult mosquito population, and infective biting rates have increased over this period, and the malaria vector abundance is higher during the summer monsoon season. Regionally, the intensity of malaria transmission is found to be higher in the north, central and southern districts of Odisha where the mosquito populations and the number of infective bites are more and mainly in the forest or mountainous ecotypes. We also find that the peak of the malaria transmission occurs when the monthly mean temperature is in the range of ~28–29 °C, and monthly rainfall accumulation in the range of ~200–360 mm.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-47212-6 |
| spellingShingle | Ruchi Singh Parihar Prasanta Kumar Bal Vaibhav Kumar Saroj Kanta Mishra Sandeep Sahany Popat Salunke Sushil Kumar Dash Ramesh Chand Dhiman Numerical Modeling of the Dynamics of Malaria Transmission in a Highly Endemic Region of India Scientific Reports |
| title | Numerical Modeling of the Dynamics of Malaria Transmission in a Highly Endemic Region of India |
| title_full | Numerical Modeling of the Dynamics of Malaria Transmission in a Highly Endemic Region of India |
| title_fullStr | Numerical Modeling of the Dynamics of Malaria Transmission in a Highly Endemic Region of India |
| title_full_unstemmed | Numerical Modeling of the Dynamics of Malaria Transmission in a Highly Endemic Region of India |
| title_short | Numerical Modeling of the Dynamics of Malaria Transmission in a Highly Endemic Region of India |
| title_sort | numerical modeling of the dynamics of malaria transmission in a highly endemic region of india |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-47212-6 |
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