Population-based simulations of influenza pandemics: validity and significance for public health policy
OBJECTIVE: To examine the validity and usefulness of pandemic simulations aimed at informing practical decision-making in public health. METHODS: We recruited a multidisciplinary group of nine experts to assess a case-study simulation of influenza transmission in a Swedish county. We used a non-stat...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
The World Health Organization
2009-04-01
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| Series: | Bulletin of the World Health Organization |
| Online Access: | http://www.scielosp.org/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0042-96862009000400016&lng=en&tlng=en |
| _version_ | 1797283127675060224 |
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| author | Toomas Timpka Henrik Eriksson Elin A Gursky James M Nyce Magnus Morin Johan Jenvald Magnus Strömgren Einar Holm Joakim Ekberg |
| author_facet | Toomas Timpka Henrik Eriksson Elin A Gursky James M Nyce Magnus Morin Johan Jenvald Magnus Strömgren Einar Holm Joakim Ekberg |
| author_sort | Toomas Timpka |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | OBJECTIVE: To examine the validity and usefulness of pandemic simulations aimed at informing practical decision-making in public health. METHODS: We recruited a multidisciplinary group of nine experts to assess a case-study simulation of influenza transmission in a Swedish county. We used a non-statistical nominal group technique to generate evaluations of the plausibility, formal validity (verification) and predictive validity of the simulation. A health-effect assessment structure was used as a framework for data collection. FINDINGS: The unpredictability of social order during disasters was not adequately addressed by simulation methods; even minor disruptions of the social order may invalidate key infrastructural assumptions underpinning current pandemic simulation models. Further, a direct relationship between model flexibility and computation time was noted. Consequently, simulation methods cannot, in practice, support integrated modifications of microbiological, epidemiological and spatial submodels or handle multiple parallel scenarios. CONCLUSION: The combination of incomplete surveillance data and simulation methods that neglect social dynamics limits the ability of national public health agencies to provide policy-makers and the general public with the critical and timely information needed during a pandemic. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-07T17:26:45Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-f31d728eb9a54c7f86c314f841f2a87c |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 0042-9686 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-07T17:26:45Z |
| publishDate | 2009-04-01 |
| publisher | The World Health Organization |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Bulletin of the World Health Organization |
| spelling | doaj.art-f31d728eb9a54c7f86c314f841f2a87c2024-03-02T19:14:59ZengThe World Health OrganizationBulletin of the World Health Organization0042-96862009-04-01874305311S0042-96862009000400016Population-based simulations of influenza pandemics: validity and significance for public health policyToomas Timpka0Henrik Eriksson1Elin A Gursky2James M Nyce3Magnus Morin4Johan Jenvald5Magnus Strömgren6Einar Holm7Joakim Ekberg8Linköpings universitetLinköpings universitetAnalytic Services Inc.Ball State UniversityVSL Systems ABVSL Systems ABUmeå UniversitetUmeå UniversitetLinköpings universitetOBJECTIVE: To examine the validity and usefulness of pandemic simulations aimed at informing practical decision-making in public health. METHODS: We recruited a multidisciplinary group of nine experts to assess a case-study simulation of influenza transmission in a Swedish county. We used a non-statistical nominal group technique to generate evaluations of the plausibility, formal validity (verification) and predictive validity of the simulation. A health-effect assessment structure was used as a framework for data collection. FINDINGS: The unpredictability of social order during disasters was not adequately addressed by simulation methods; even minor disruptions of the social order may invalidate key infrastructural assumptions underpinning current pandemic simulation models. Further, a direct relationship between model flexibility and computation time was noted. Consequently, simulation methods cannot, in practice, support integrated modifications of microbiological, epidemiological and spatial submodels or handle multiple parallel scenarios. CONCLUSION: The combination of incomplete surveillance data and simulation methods that neglect social dynamics limits the ability of national public health agencies to provide policy-makers and the general public with the critical and timely information needed during a pandemic.http://www.scielosp.org/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0042-96862009000400016&lng=en&tlng=en |
| spellingShingle | Toomas Timpka Henrik Eriksson Elin A Gursky James M Nyce Magnus Morin Johan Jenvald Magnus Strömgren Einar Holm Joakim Ekberg Population-based simulations of influenza pandemics: validity and significance for public health policy Bulletin of the World Health Organization |
| title | Population-based simulations of influenza pandemics: validity and significance for public health policy |
| title_full | Population-based simulations of influenza pandemics: validity and significance for public health policy |
| title_fullStr | Population-based simulations of influenza pandemics: validity and significance for public health policy |
| title_full_unstemmed | Population-based simulations of influenza pandemics: validity and significance for public health policy |
| title_short | Population-based simulations of influenza pandemics: validity and significance for public health policy |
| title_sort | population based simulations of influenza pandemics validity and significance for public health policy |
| url | http://www.scielosp.org/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0042-96862009000400016&lng=en&tlng=en |
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