Flash flood detection via copula-based intensity–duration–frequency curves: evidence from Jamaica
<p>Extreme rainfall events frequently cause hazardous floods in many parts of the world. With growing human exposure to floods, studying conditions that trigger floods is imperative. Flash floods, in particular, require well-defined models for the timely warning of the population at risk. Inte...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2024-03-01
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| Series: | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| Online Access: | https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/24/873/2024/nhess-24-873-2024.pdf |
| _version_ | 1797262277667192832 |
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| author | D. Collalti D. Collalti N. Spencer E. Strobl E. Strobl |
| author_facet | D. Collalti D. Collalti N. Spencer E. Strobl E. Strobl |
| author_sort | D. Collalti |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>Extreme rainfall events frequently cause hazardous floods in many parts of the world. With growing human exposure to floods, studying conditions that trigger floods is imperative. Flash floods, in particular, require well-defined models for the timely warning of the population at risk. Intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves are a common way to characterize rainfall and flood events. Here, the copula method is employed to model the dependence between the intensity and duration of rainfall events flexibly and separately from their respective marginal distribution. Information about the localization of 93 flash floods in Jamaica was gathered and linked to remote-sensing rainfall data, and additional data on location-specific yearly maximum rainfall events were constructed. The estimated normal copula has Weibull and generalized extreme value (GEV) marginals for duration and intensity, respectively. Due to the two samples, it is possible to pin down above which line in the intensity duration space a rainfall event likely triggers a flash flood. The parametric IDF curve with an associated return period of <span class="inline-formula"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="M1" display="inline" overflow="scroll" dspmath="mathml"><mrow><mn mathvariant="normal">2</mn><mstyle displaystyle="false"><mfrac style="text"><mn mathvariant="normal">1</mn><mn mathvariant="normal">6</mn></mfrac></mstyle></mrow></math><span><svg:svg xmlns:svg="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="14pt" height="16pt" class="svg-formula" dspmath="mathimg" md5hash="7e1097c5cceda4529ea66911d1c182f2"><svg:image xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="nhess-24-873-2024-ie00001.svg" width="14pt" height="16pt" src="nhess-24-873-2024-ie00001.png"/></svg:svg></span></span> years is determined as the optimal threshold for flash flood event classification. This methodology delivers a flexible approach to generating rainfall IDF curves that can directly be used to assess flash flood risk.</p> |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-24T23:54:34Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-f326acc955584f4baeca9a7f4a6f755d |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1561-8633 1684-9981 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-24T23:54:34Z |
| publishDate | 2024-03-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| spelling | doaj.art-f326acc955584f4baeca9a7f4a6f755d2024-03-14T15:42:27ZengCopernicus PublicationsNatural Hazards and Earth System Sciences1561-86331684-99812024-03-012487389010.5194/nhess-24-873-2024Flash flood detection via copula-based intensity–duration–frequency curves: evidence from JamaicaD. Collalti0D. Collalti1N. Spencer2E. Strobl3E. Strobl4Department of Economics, University of Bern, Bern, SwitzerlandOeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, SwitzerlandDepartment of Economics, University of the West Indies, Kingston, JamaicaDepartment of Economics, University of Bern, Bern, SwitzerlandOeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland<p>Extreme rainfall events frequently cause hazardous floods in many parts of the world. With growing human exposure to floods, studying conditions that trigger floods is imperative. Flash floods, in particular, require well-defined models for the timely warning of the population at risk. Intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves are a common way to characterize rainfall and flood events. Here, the copula method is employed to model the dependence between the intensity and duration of rainfall events flexibly and separately from their respective marginal distribution. Information about the localization of 93 flash floods in Jamaica was gathered and linked to remote-sensing rainfall data, and additional data on location-specific yearly maximum rainfall events were constructed. The estimated normal copula has Weibull and generalized extreme value (GEV) marginals for duration and intensity, respectively. Due to the two samples, it is possible to pin down above which line in the intensity duration space a rainfall event likely triggers a flash flood. The parametric IDF curve with an associated return period of <span class="inline-formula"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="M1" display="inline" overflow="scroll" dspmath="mathml"><mrow><mn mathvariant="normal">2</mn><mstyle displaystyle="false"><mfrac style="text"><mn mathvariant="normal">1</mn><mn mathvariant="normal">6</mn></mfrac></mstyle></mrow></math><span><svg:svg xmlns:svg="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="14pt" height="16pt" class="svg-formula" dspmath="mathimg" md5hash="7e1097c5cceda4529ea66911d1c182f2"><svg:image xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="nhess-24-873-2024-ie00001.svg" width="14pt" height="16pt" src="nhess-24-873-2024-ie00001.png"/></svg:svg></span></span> years is determined as the optimal threshold for flash flood event classification. This methodology delivers a flexible approach to generating rainfall IDF curves that can directly be used to assess flash flood risk.</p>https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/24/873/2024/nhess-24-873-2024.pdf |
| spellingShingle | D. Collalti D. Collalti N. Spencer E. Strobl E. Strobl Flash flood detection via copula-based intensity–duration–frequency curves: evidence from Jamaica Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| title | Flash flood detection via copula-based intensity–duration–frequency curves: evidence from Jamaica |
| title_full | Flash flood detection via copula-based intensity–duration–frequency curves: evidence from Jamaica |
| title_fullStr | Flash flood detection via copula-based intensity–duration–frequency curves: evidence from Jamaica |
| title_full_unstemmed | Flash flood detection via copula-based intensity–duration–frequency curves: evidence from Jamaica |
| title_short | Flash flood detection via copula-based intensity–duration–frequency curves: evidence from Jamaica |
| title_sort | flash flood detection via copula based intensity duration frequency curves evidence from jamaica |
| url | https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/24/873/2024/nhess-24-873-2024.pdf |
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