Time series analysis of cutaneous leishmaniasis incidence in Shahroud based on ARIMA model
Abstract Background Leishmaniasis is a zoonotic disease and Iran is one of the ten countries with has the highest estimated cases of leishmaniasis. This study aimed to determine the time trend of cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) incidence using the ARIMA model in Shahroud County, Semnan, Iran. Methods I...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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BMC
2023-06-01
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| Series: | BMC Public Health |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-023-16121-9 |
| _version_ | 1797795484424732672 |
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| author | Mostafa Majidnia Zahra Ahmadabadi Poneh Zolfaghari Ahmad Khosravi |
| author_facet | Mostafa Majidnia Zahra Ahmadabadi Poneh Zolfaghari Ahmad Khosravi |
| author_sort | Mostafa Majidnia |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background Leishmaniasis is a zoonotic disease and Iran is one of the ten countries with has the highest estimated cases of leishmaniasis. This study aimed to determine the time trend of cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) incidence using the ARIMA model in Shahroud County, Semnan, Iran. Methods In this study, 725 patients with leishmaniasis were selected in the Health Centers of Shahroud during 2009–2020. Demographic characteristics including; history of traveling, history of leishmaniasis, co-morbidity of other family members, history of treatment, underlying disease, and diagnostic measures were collected using the patients’ information listed in the Health Ministry portal. The Box-Jenkins approach was applied to fit the SARIMA model for CL incidence from 2009 to 2020. All statistical analyses were done by using Minitab software version 14. Results The mean age of patients was 28.2 ± 21.3 years. The highest and lowest annual incidence of leishmaniasis were in 2018 and 2017, respectively. The average ten-year incidence was 132 per 100,000 population. The highest and lowest incidence of the disease were 592 and 195 for 100,000 population in the years 2011 and 2017, respectively. The best model was SARIMA (3,1,1) (0,1,2)4 (AIC: 324.3, BIC: 317.7 and RMSE: 0.167). Conclusions This study suggested that time series models would be useful tools for predicting cutaneous leishmaniasis incidence trends; therefore, the SARIMA model could be used in planning public health programs. It will predict the course of the disease in the coming years and run the solutions to reduce the cases of the disease. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-13T03:18:39Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-f34cfad0a91943cd848d2533ff7d499a |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1471-2458 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-13T03:18:39Z |
| publishDate | 2023-06-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | BMC Public Health |
| spelling | doaj.art-f34cfad0a91943cd848d2533ff7d499a2023-06-25T11:31:32ZengBMCBMC Public Health1471-24582023-06-012311710.1186/s12889-023-16121-9Time series analysis of cutaneous leishmaniasis incidence in Shahroud based on ARIMA modelMostafa Majidnia0Zahra Ahmadabadi1Poneh Zolfaghari2Ahmad Khosravi3Student Research Committee, School of Public Health, Shahroud University of Medical SciencesStudent Research Committee, School of Medicine, Shahroud University of Medical SciencesVice-chanceller of Health, Shahroud University of Medical SciencesCenter for Health Related Social and Behavioral Sciences Research, Shahroud University of Medical SciencesAbstract Background Leishmaniasis is a zoonotic disease and Iran is one of the ten countries with has the highest estimated cases of leishmaniasis. This study aimed to determine the time trend of cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) incidence using the ARIMA model in Shahroud County, Semnan, Iran. Methods In this study, 725 patients with leishmaniasis were selected in the Health Centers of Shahroud during 2009–2020. Demographic characteristics including; history of traveling, history of leishmaniasis, co-morbidity of other family members, history of treatment, underlying disease, and diagnostic measures were collected using the patients’ information listed in the Health Ministry portal. The Box-Jenkins approach was applied to fit the SARIMA model for CL incidence from 2009 to 2020. All statistical analyses were done by using Minitab software version 14. Results The mean age of patients was 28.2 ± 21.3 years. The highest and lowest annual incidence of leishmaniasis were in 2018 and 2017, respectively. The average ten-year incidence was 132 per 100,000 population. The highest and lowest incidence of the disease were 592 and 195 for 100,000 population in the years 2011 and 2017, respectively. The best model was SARIMA (3,1,1) (0,1,2)4 (AIC: 324.3, BIC: 317.7 and RMSE: 0.167). Conclusions This study suggested that time series models would be useful tools for predicting cutaneous leishmaniasis incidence trends; therefore, the SARIMA model could be used in planning public health programs. It will predict the course of the disease in the coming years and run the solutions to reduce the cases of the disease.https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-023-16121-9ARIMA modelCutaneous leishmaniasisZoonotic diseaseTime series analysis |
| spellingShingle | Mostafa Majidnia Zahra Ahmadabadi Poneh Zolfaghari Ahmad Khosravi Time series analysis of cutaneous leishmaniasis incidence in Shahroud based on ARIMA model BMC Public Health ARIMA model Cutaneous leishmaniasis Zoonotic disease Time series analysis |
| title | Time series analysis of cutaneous leishmaniasis incidence in Shahroud based on ARIMA model |
| title_full | Time series analysis of cutaneous leishmaniasis incidence in Shahroud based on ARIMA model |
| title_fullStr | Time series analysis of cutaneous leishmaniasis incidence in Shahroud based on ARIMA model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Time series analysis of cutaneous leishmaniasis incidence in Shahroud based on ARIMA model |
| title_short | Time series analysis of cutaneous leishmaniasis incidence in Shahroud based on ARIMA model |
| title_sort | time series analysis of cutaneous leishmaniasis incidence in shahroud based on arima model |
| topic | ARIMA model Cutaneous leishmaniasis Zoonotic disease Time series analysis |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-023-16121-9 |
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