Simulating Changes in Hydrological Extremes—Future Scenarios for Morocco
This paper presents a comprehensive river discharge analysis to estimate past and future hydrological extremes across Morocco. Hydrological simulations with historical forcing and climate change scenario inputs have been performed to better understand the change in magnitude and frequency of extreme...
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| Format: | Article |
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MDPI AG
2023-07-01
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| Series: | Water |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/15/15/2722 |
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| author | Laura Giustarini Guy J. -P. Schumann Albert J. Kettner Andrew Smith Raphael Nawrotzki |
| author_facet | Laura Giustarini Guy J. -P. Schumann Albert J. Kettner Andrew Smith Raphael Nawrotzki |
| author_sort | Laura Giustarini |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This paper presents a comprehensive river discharge analysis to estimate past and future hydrological extremes across Morocco. Hydrological simulations with historical forcing and climate change scenario inputs have been performed to better understand the change in magnitude and frequency of extreme discharge events that cause flooding. Simulations are applied to all major rivers of Morocco, including a total of 16 basins that cover the majority of the country. An ensemble of temperature and precipitation input parameter sets was generated to analyze input uncertainty, an approach that can be extended to other regions of the world, including data-sparse regions. Parameter uncertainty was also included in the analyses. Historical simulations comprise the period 1979–2021, while future simulations (2015–2100) were performed under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5. Clear patterns of changing flood extremes are projected; these changes are significant when considered as a proportion of the land area of the country. Two types of basins have been identified, based on their different behavior in climate change scenarios. In the Northern/Mediterranean basins we observe a decrease in the frequency and intensity of events by 2050 under both SSPs, whereas for the remaining catchments higher and more frequent high-flow events in the form of flash floods are detected. Our analysis revealed that this is a consequence of the reduction in rainfall accumulation and intensity in both SSPs for the first type of basins, while the opposite applies to the other type. More generally, we propose a methodology that does not rely on observed time series of discharge, so especially for regions where those do not exist or are not available, and that can be applied to undertake future flood projections in the most data-scarce regions. This method allows future hydrological hazards to be estimated for essentially any region of the world. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T00:14:03Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-f355927f0ee94893ad040a7bdf73d180 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4441 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T00:14:03Z |
| publishDate | 2023-07-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Water |
| spelling | doaj.art-f355927f0ee94893ad040a7bdf73d1802023-11-18T23:46:52ZengMDPI AGWater2073-44412023-07-011515272210.3390/w15152722Simulating Changes in Hydrological Extremes—Future Scenarios for MoroccoLaura Giustarini0Guy J. -P. Schumann1Albert J. Kettner2Andrew Smith3Raphael Nawrotzki4Research and Education Department, RSS-Hydro, Kayl, L-3593 Luxembourg, LuxembourgResearch and Education Department, RSS-Hydro, Kayl, L-3593 Luxembourg, LuxembourgDFO—Flood Observatory, INSTAAR, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309-0545, USAFathomTM, Square Works, Bristol BS8 1HB, UKGerman Institute for Development Evaluation, 53113 Bonn, GermanyThis paper presents a comprehensive river discharge analysis to estimate past and future hydrological extremes across Morocco. Hydrological simulations with historical forcing and climate change scenario inputs have been performed to better understand the change in magnitude and frequency of extreme discharge events that cause flooding. Simulations are applied to all major rivers of Morocco, including a total of 16 basins that cover the majority of the country. An ensemble of temperature and precipitation input parameter sets was generated to analyze input uncertainty, an approach that can be extended to other regions of the world, including data-sparse regions. Parameter uncertainty was also included in the analyses. Historical simulations comprise the period 1979–2021, while future simulations (2015–2100) were performed under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5. Clear patterns of changing flood extremes are projected; these changes are significant when considered as a proportion of the land area of the country. Two types of basins have been identified, based on their different behavior in climate change scenarios. In the Northern/Mediterranean basins we observe a decrease in the frequency and intensity of events by 2050 under both SSPs, whereas for the remaining catchments higher and more frequent high-flow events in the form of flash floods are detected. Our analysis revealed that this is a consequence of the reduction in rainfall accumulation and intensity in both SSPs for the first type of basins, while the opposite applies to the other type. More generally, we propose a methodology that does not rely on observed time series of discharge, so especially for regions where those do not exist or are not available, and that can be applied to undertake future flood projections in the most data-scarce regions. This method allows future hydrological hazards to be estimated for essentially any region of the world.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/15/15/2722hydrological simulationclimate changeGCMIPCC AR6Moroccoregional impact |
| spellingShingle | Laura Giustarini Guy J. -P. Schumann Albert J. Kettner Andrew Smith Raphael Nawrotzki Simulating Changes in Hydrological Extremes—Future Scenarios for Morocco Water hydrological simulation climate change GCM IPCC AR6 Morocco regional impact |
| title | Simulating Changes in Hydrological Extremes—Future Scenarios for Morocco |
| title_full | Simulating Changes in Hydrological Extremes—Future Scenarios for Morocco |
| title_fullStr | Simulating Changes in Hydrological Extremes—Future Scenarios for Morocco |
| title_full_unstemmed | Simulating Changes in Hydrological Extremes—Future Scenarios for Morocco |
| title_short | Simulating Changes in Hydrological Extremes—Future Scenarios for Morocco |
| title_sort | simulating changes in hydrological extremes future scenarios for morocco |
| topic | hydrological simulation climate change GCM IPCC AR6 Morocco regional impact |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/15/15/2722 |
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