Long-Term Forecasting of Iran's Electricity Demand (A Scenario-Based Approach Using a Combined ARDL and ARIMA Approach)
The electricity industry is not only one of the most significant industries in the nation, but it is also one of the most significant pillars of economic development. The numerous roles that electricity plays in a country's economy make it clear that anticipating electricity consumption is cruc...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | fas |
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Allameh Tabataba'i University Press
2022-09-01
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| Series: | Pizhūhishnāmah-i Iqtiṣād-i Inirzhī-i Īrān |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://jiee.atu.ac.ir/article_15028_f91107d1e087c31e111a09937c8bb1ee.pdf |
| _version_ | 1797369211816771584 |
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| author | Hossein Hafezi Mahbube Delfan |
| author_facet | Hossein Hafezi Mahbube Delfan |
| author_sort | Hossein Hafezi |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The electricity industry is not only one of the most significant industries in the nation, but it is also one of the most significant pillars of economic development. The numerous roles that electricity plays in a country's economy make it clear that anticipating electricity consumption is crucial. In this regard, the combined ARDL and ARIMA technique is used in the current study to forecast the nation's electricity demand. With an emphasis on the impact of temperature and various rates of economic growth, this study attempts to forecast Iran's total electricity demand over 30 years (2021 to 2050) under 4 alternative scenarios. The development of the scenario is based on the rise in the nation's average temperature and various rates of economic growth. The first and second scenarios rely on the country's average temperature increase of 0. 26% per annum and economic growth rates of 2% and 8%. Furthermore, the third and fourth ones are based on the country's average temperature increase of 0. 45% a year and economic growth rates of 2 and 8%. The study's findings reveal that temperature and economic growth have a substantial impact on how much electricity is consumed, but they also indicate that as temperatures rise and the GDP expands, there will be a huge increase in demand for electricity. Additionally, additional findings show that the power demand is inelastic to price fluctuations. As a result, efforts to reduce electricity consumption should be based on policies to increase energy efficiency as well as policies to regulate temperature and greenhouse gas emissions by increasing the proportion of renewable technologies in the nation's electricity supply portfolio. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T17:44:24Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-f36b0ab9a37f4ff4afc42e4bca76c9c6 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2423-5954 2476-6437 |
| language | fas |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-08T17:44:24Z |
| publishDate | 2022-09-01 |
| publisher | Allameh Tabataba'i University Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Pizhūhishnāmah-i Iqtiṣād-i Inirzhī-i Īrān |
| spelling | doaj.art-f36b0ab9a37f4ff4afc42e4bca76c9c62024-01-02T10:50:09ZfasAllameh Tabataba'i University PressPizhūhishnāmah-i Iqtiṣād-i Inirzhī-i Īrān2423-59542476-64372022-09-011144417110.22054/jiee.2022.70675.195915028Long-Term Forecasting of Iran's Electricity Demand (A Scenario-Based Approach Using a Combined ARDL and ARIMA Approach)Hossein Hafezi0Mahbube Delfan1Master Student of Energy Economics, Kharazmi University, Tehran, IranAssistant Professor, Department of Economics, Lorestan University, Lorestan, IranThe electricity industry is not only one of the most significant industries in the nation, but it is also one of the most significant pillars of economic development. The numerous roles that electricity plays in a country's economy make it clear that anticipating electricity consumption is crucial. In this regard, the combined ARDL and ARIMA technique is used in the current study to forecast the nation's electricity demand. With an emphasis on the impact of temperature and various rates of economic growth, this study attempts to forecast Iran's total electricity demand over 30 years (2021 to 2050) under 4 alternative scenarios. The development of the scenario is based on the rise in the nation's average temperature and various rates of economic growth. The first and second scenarios rely on the country's average temperature increase of 0. 26% per annum and economic growth rates of 2% and 8%. Furthermore, the third and fourth ones are based on the country's average temperature increase of 0. 45% a year and economic growth rates of 2 and 8%. The study's findings reveal that temperature and economic growth have a substantial impact on how much electricity is consumed, but they also indicate that as temperatures rise and the GDP expands, there will be a huge increase in demand for electricity. Additionally, additional findings show that the power demand is inelastic to price fluctuations. As a result, efforts to reduce electricity consumption should be based on policies to increase energy efficiency as well as policies to regulate temperature and greenhouse gas emissions by increasing the proportion of renewable technologies in the nation's electricity supply portfolio.https://jiee.atu.ac.ir/article_15028_f91107d1e087c31e111a09937c8bb1ee.pdfelectricity demand forecasteffect of climate change on electricity demandardl modelarima model |
| spellingShingle | Hossein Hafezi Mahbube Delfan Long-Term Forecasting of Iran's Electricity Demand (A Scenario-Based Approach Using a Combined ARDL and ARIMA Approach) Pizhūhishnāmah-i Iqtiṣād-i Inirzhī-i Īrān electricity demand forecast effect of climate change on electricity demand ardl model arima model |
| title | Long-Term Forecasting of Iran's Electricity Demand
(A Scenario-Based Approach Using a Combined ARDL and ARIMA Approach) |
| title_full | Long-Term Forecasting of Iran's Electricity Demand
(A Scenario-Based Approach Using a Combined ARDL and ARIMA Approach) |
| title_fullStr | Long-Term Forecasting of Iran's Electricity Demand
(A Scenario-Based Approach Using a Combined ARDL and ARIMA Approach) |
| title_full_unstemmed | Long-Term Forecasting of Iran's Electricity Demand
(A Scenario-Based Approach Using a Combined ARDL and ARIMA Approach) |
| title_short | Long-Term Forecasting of Iran's Electricity Demand
(A Scenario-Based Approach Using a Combined ARDL and ARIMA Approach) |
| title_sort | long term forecasting of iran s electricity demand a scenario based approach using a combined ardl and arima approach |
| topic | electricity demand forecast effect of climate change on electricity demand ardl model arima model |
| url | https://jiee.atu.ac.ir/article_15028_f91107d1e087c31e111a09937c8bb1ee.pdf |
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