LLUNPIY Simulations of the 1877 Northward Catastrophic Lahars of Cotopaxi Volcano (Ecuador) for a Contribution to Forecasting the Hazards
LLUNPIY (lahar modeling by local rules based on an underlying pick of yoked processes, from the Quechua word “llunp’iy“, meaning flood) is a cellular automata (CA) model that simulates primary and secondary lahars, here applied to replicate those that occurred during the huge 1877 Cotopaxi Volcano e...
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MDPI AG
2021-02-01
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3263/11/2/81 |
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| author | Valeria Lupiano Paolo Catelan Claudia R. Calidonna Francesco Chidichimo Gino M. Crisci Valeria Rago Salvatore Straface Salvatore Di Gregorio |
| author_facet | Valeria Lupiano Paolo Catelan Claudia R. Calidonna Francesco Chidichimo Gino M. Crisci Valeria Rago Salvatore Straface Salvatore Di Gregorio |
| author_sort | Valeria Lupiano |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | LLUNPIY (lahar modeling by local rules based on an underlying pick of yoked processes, from the Quechua word “llunp’iy“, meaning flood) is a cellular automata (CA) model that simulates primary and secondary lahars, here applied to replicate those that occurred during the huge 1877 Cotopaxi Volcano eruption. The lahars flowing down the southwestern flanks of the volcano were already satisfactorily simulated in previous investigations of ours, assuming two possible different triggering mechanisms, i.e., the sudden and homogeneous melting of the summit ice and snow cap due to pyroclastic flows and the melting of the glacier parts hit by free-falling pyroclastic bombs after being upwardly ejected during the volcanic eruption. In a similar fashion, we apply here the CA LLUNPIY model to simulate the 1877 lahars sprawling out the Cotopaxi northern slopes and eventually impacting densely populated areas. Our preliminary results indicate that several important public infrastructures (among them the regional potable water supply system) and the Valle de Los Chillos and other Quito suburban areas might be devastated by northward-bound lahars, should a catastrophic Cotopaxi eruption comparable to the 1877 one occur in the near future. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T00:57:07Z |
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| id | doaj.art-f373af88093844e8a171db6785f1dafb |
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| issn | 2076-3263 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T00:57:07Z |
| publishDate | 2021-02-01 |
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| record_format | Article |
| series | Geosciences |
| spelling | doaj.art-f373af88093844e8a171db6785f1dafb2023-12-11T16:50:09ZengMDPI AGGeosciences2076-32632021-02-011128110.3390/geosciences11020081LLUNPIY Simulations of the 1877 Northward Catastrophic Lahars of Cotopaxi Volcano (Ecuador) for a Contribution to Forecasting the HazardsValeria Lupiano0Paolo Catelan1Claudia R. Calidonna2Francesco Chidichimo3Gino M. Crisci4Valeria Rago5Salvatore Straface6Salvatore Di Gregorio7CNR-IRPI, Research Institute for Geo-Hydrological Protection, Via Cavour 6, 87030 Rende, ItalyDepartment of Environmental Engineering, University of Calabria, 87036 Rende, ItalyCNR-ISAC, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Area ex SIR, 88046 Lamezia Terme, ItalyDepartment of Environmental Engineering, University of Calabria, 87036 Rende, ItalyDepartment of Biology, Ecology, Earth Science, University of Calabria, 87036 Rende, ItalyCNR-IRPI, Research Institute for Geo-Hydrological Protection, Via Cavour 6, 87030 Rende, ItalyDepartment of Environmental Engineering, University of Calabria, 87036 Rende, ItalyCNR-ISAC, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Area ex SIR, 88046 Lamezia Terme, ItalyLLUNPIY (lahar modeling by local rules based on an underlying pick of yoked processes, from the Quechua word “llunp’iy“, meaning flood) is a cellular automata (CA) model that simulates primary and secondary lahars, here applied to replicate those that occurred during the huge 1877 Cotopaxi Volcano eruption. The lahars flowing down the southwestern flanks of the volcano were already satisfactorily simulated in previous investigations of ours, assuming two possible different triggering mechanisms, i.e., the sudden and homogeneous melting of the summit ice and snow cap due to pyroclastic flows and the melting of the glacier parts hit by free-falling pyroclastic bombs after being upwardly ejected during the volcanic eruption. In a similar fashion, we apply here the CA LLUNPIY model to simulate the 1877 lahars sprawling out the Cotopaxi northern slopes and eventually impacting densely populated areas. Our preliminary results indicate that several important public infrastructures (among them the regional potable water supply system) and the Valle de Los Chillos and other Quito suburban areas might be devastated by northward-bound lahars, should a catastrophic Cotopaxi eruption comparable to the 1877 one occur in the near future.https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3263/11/2/81natural hazardslaharsvolcanic eruptionsmodeling and simulationcellular automataCotopaxi |
| spellingShingle | Valeria Lupiano Paolo Catelan Claudia R. Calidonna Francesco Chidichimo Gino M. Crisci Valeria Rago Salvatore Straface Salvatore Di Gregorio LLUNPIY Simulations of the 1877 Northward Catastrophic Lahars of Cotopaxi Volcano (Ecuador) for a Contribution to Forecasting the Hazards Geosciences natural hazards lahars volcanic eruptions modeling and simulation cellular automata Cotopaxi |
| title | LLUNPIY Simulations of the 1877 Northward Catastrophic Lahars of Cotopaxi Volcano (Ecuador) for a Contribution to Forecasting the Hazards |
| title_full | LLUNPIY Simulations of the 1877 Northward Catastrophic Lahars of Cotopaxi Volcano (Ecuador) for a Contribution to Forecasting the Hazards |
| title_fullStr | LLUNPIY Simulations of the 1877 Northward Catastrophic Lahars of Cotopaxi Volcano (Ecuador) for a Contribution to Forecasting the Hazards |
| title_full_unstemmed | LLUNPIY Simulations of the 1877 Northward Catastrophic Lahars of Cotopaxi Volcano (Ecuador) for a Contribution to Forecasting the Hazards |
| title_short | LLUNPIY Simulations of the 1877 Northward Catastrophic Lahars of Cotopaxi Volcano (Ecuador) for a Contribution to Forecasting the Hazards |
| title_sort | llunpiy simulations of the 1877 northward catastrophic lahars of cotopaxi volcano ecuador for a contribution to forecasting the hazards |
| topic | natural hazards lahars volcanic eruptions modeling and simulation cellular automata Cotopaxi |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3263/11/2/81 |
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