Addressing supply uncertainties using multi-period stochastic economic evaluation: A graph-theoretic aided element targeting approach
The challenges to commercialize biomass industry includes biomass supply shortage which is dependent on geographical location and seasonality. Most of the present biomass supply chain studies had not considered incorporation of supply chain uncertainties that may lead to overestimation of financial...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2022-10-01
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| Series: | Cleaner Engineering and Technology |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666790822001598 |
| _version_ | 1811267040121454592 |
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| author | Shirleen Lee Yuen Lo Chun Hsion Lim Michael Francis D. Benjamin Hon Loong Lam Jaka Sunarso Bing Shen How |
| author_facet | Shirleen Lee Yuen Lo Chun Hsion Lim Michael Francis D. Benjamin Hon Loong Lam Jaka Sunarso Bing Shen How |
| author_sort | Shirleen Lee Yuen Lo |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The challenges to commercialize biomass industry includes biomass supply shortage which is dependent on geographical location and seasonality. Most of the present biomass supply chain studies had not considered incorporation of supply chain uncertainties that may lead to overestimation of financial performance. Therefore, a hybrid framework was proposed via integration of stochastic Monte Carlo Simulation model with element targeting approach (Biomass Element Life Cycle Analysis, BELCA-P-graph model) to perform scheduling and economic analysis for the biomass supply chain. The BELCA-P-graph model aimed to generate a baseline for the feedstock ratio of each input biomass. This was then input into the stochastic model, capable of estimating the financial probability of the supply chain while incorporating supply chain uncertainties (i.e., biomass element characteristics, transportation-related parameters, raw material pricing, biomass availability, market demand, and selling price of final product). Results showed that biomass shortage had decreased the mean Net Present Value (NPV) of the base case scenario (without consideration biomass supply shortage) by 1.39%–12.21%. Storage capacity consideration had decreased the mean NPV by 11.59%–12.21%. The sensitivity analysis found that syngas demand and syngas selling price uncertainty offered significant impact on the mean NPV outcome. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-12T20:54:10Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-f374781d84e746c78ba467244b2a3e95 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2666-7908 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-12T20:54:10Z |
| publishDate | 2022-10-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Cleaner Engineering and Technology |
| spelling | doaj.art-f374781d84e746c78ba467244b2a3e952022-12-22T03:17:02ZengElsevierCleaner Engineering and Technology2666-79082022-10-0110100554Addressing supply uncertainties using multi-period stochastic economic evaluation: A graph-theoretic aided element targeting approachShirleen Lee Yuen Lo0Chun Hsion Lim1Michael Francis D. Benjamin2Hon Loong Lam3Jaka Sunarso4Bing Shen How5Biomass Waste-to-Wealth Special Interest Group, Research Centre for Sustainable Technologies, Faculty of Engineering, Computing and Science, Swinburne University of Technology, Jalan Simpang Tiga, 93350, Kuching, Sarawak, MalaysiaSchool of Engineering and Physical Sciences, Heriot-Watt University Malaysia, Jalan Venna P5/2, Precinct 5, 62200 Putrajaya, MalaysiaResearch Center for the Natural and Applied Sciences / Chemical Engineering Department, University of Santo Tomas, España Blvd., 1015, Manila, PhilippinesDepartment of Chemical and Environmental Engineering, The University of Nottingham, Malaysia Campus, Jalan Broga, 43500 Semenyih, Selangor, MalaysiaBiomass Waste-to-Wealth Special Interest Group, Research Centre for Sustainable Technologies, Faculty of Engineering, Computing and Science, Swinburne University of Technology, Jalan Simpang Tiga, 93350, Kuching, Sarawak, MalaysiaBiomass Waste-to-Wealth Special Interest Group, Research Centre for Sustainable Technologies, Faculty of Engineering, Computing and Science, Swinburne University of Technology, Jalan Simpang Tiga, 93350, Kuching, Sarawak, Malaysia; Corresponding author.The challenges to commercialize biomass industry includes biomass supply shortage which is dependent on geographical location and seasonality. Most of the present biomass supply chain studies had not considered incorporation of supply chain uncertainties that may lead to overestimation of financial performance. Therefore, a hybrid framework was proposed via integration of stochastic Monte Carlo Simulation model with element targeting approach (Biomass Element Life Cycle Analysis, BELCA-P-graph model) to perform scheduling and economic analysis for the biomass supply chain. The BELCA-P-graph model aimed to generate a baseline for the feedstock ratio of each input biomass. This was then input into the stochastic model, capable of estimating the financial probability of the supply chain while incorporating supply chain uncertainties (i.e., biomass element characteristics, transportation-related parameters, raw material pricing, biomass availability, market demand, and selling price of final product). Results showed that biomass shortage had decreased the mean Net Present Value (NPV) of the base case scenario (without consideration biomass supply shortage) by 1.39%–12.21%. Storage capacity consideration had decreased the mean NPV by 11.59%–12.21%. The sensitivity analysis found that syngas demand and syngas selling price uncertainty offered significant impact on the mean NPV outcome.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666790822001598Biomass element life cycle analysisMonte CarloUncertaintiesMulti-period operationP-graph |
| spellingShingle | Shirleen Lee Yuen Lo Chun Hsion Lim Michael Francis D. Benjamin Hon Loong Lam Jaka Sunarso Bing Shen How Addressing supply uncertainties using multi-period stochastic economic evaluation: A graph-theoretic aided element targeting approach Cleaner Engineering and Technology Biomass element life cycle analysis Monte Carlo Uncertainties Multi-period operation P-graph |
| title | Addressing supply uncertainties using multi-period stochastic economic evaluation: A graph-theoretic aided element targeting approach |
| title_full | Addressing supply uncertainties using multi-period stochastic economic evaluation: A graph-theoretic aided element targeting approach |
| title_fullStr | Addressing supply uncertainties using multi-period stochastic economic evaluation: A graph-theoretic aided element targeting approach |
| title_full_unstemmed | Addressing supply uncertainties using multi-period stochastic economic evaluation: A graph-theoretic aided element targeting approach |
| title_short | Addressing supply uncertainties using multi-period stochastic economic evaluation: A graph-theoretic aided element targeting approach |
| title_sort | addressing supply uncertainties using multi period stochastic economic evaluation a graph theoretic aided element targeting approach |
| topic | Biomass element life cycle analysis Monte Carlo Uncertainties Multi-period operation P-graph |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666790822001598 |
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