Calibration and validation of modeled 5-year survival predictions among people with cystic fibrosis treated with the cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator modulator ivacaftor using United States registry data.
<h4>Objectives</h4>Cystic fibrosis (CF) is a rare genetic disease characterized by life-shortening lung function decline. Ivacaftor, a CF transmembrane conductance regulator modulator (CFTRm), was approved in 2012 for people with CF with specific gene mutations. We used real-world eviden...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2023-01-01
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| Series: | PLoS ONE |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0283479 |
| _version_ | 1797843278679244800 |
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| author | Lisa J McGarry Zahra Bhaiwala Andrea Lopez Conor Chandler Christopher G Pelligra Jaime L Rubin Theodore G Liou |
| author_facet | Lisa J McGarry Zahra Bhaiwala Andrea Lopez Conor Chandler Christopher G Pelligra Jaime L Rubin Theodore G Liou |
| author_sort | Lisa J McGarry |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <h4>Objectives</h4>Cystic fibrosis (CF) is a rare genetic disease characterized by life-shortening lung function decline. Ivacaftor, a CF transmembrane conductance regulator modulator (CFTRm), was approved in 2012 for people with CF with specific gene mutations. We used real-world evidence of 5-year mortality impacts of ivacaftor in a US registry population to validate a CF disease-progression model that estimates the impact of ivacaftor on survival.<h4>Methods</h4>The model projects the impact of ivacaftor vs. standard care in people with CF aged ≥6 years with CFTR gating mutations by combining parametric equations fitted to historical registry survival data, with mortality hazards adjusted for fixed and time-varying person-level characteristics. Disease progression with standard care was derived from published registry studies and the expected impact of ivacaftor on clinical characteristics was derived from clinical trials. Individual-level baseline characteristics of the registry ivacaftor-treated population were entered into the model; 5-year model-projected mortality with credible intervals (CrIs) was compared with registry mortality to evaluate the model's validity.<h4>Results</h4>Post-calibration 5-year mortality projections closely approximated registry mortality in populations treated with standard care (6.4% modeled [95% CrI: 5.3% to 7.6%] vs. 6.0% observed) and ivacaftor (3.4% modeled [95% CrI: 2.7% to 4.4%] vs. 3.1% observed). The model accurately predicted 5-year relative risk of mortality (0.53 modeled [0.47 to 0.60] vs. 0.51 observed) in people treated with ivacaftor vs. standard care.<h4>Conclusions</h4>Modeled 5-year survival projections for people with CF initiating ivacaftor vs. standard care align closely with real-world registry data. Findings support the validity of modeling CF to predict long-term survival and estimate clinical and economic outcomes of CFTRm. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-09T17:02:35Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-f383c0ab1efb464592cb3b9aa2390bc9 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1932-6203 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-09T17:02:35Z |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PLoS ONE |
| spelling | doaj.art-f383c0ab1efb464592cb3b9aa2390bc92023-04-21T05:32:13ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032023-01-01184e028347910.1371/journal.pone.0283479Calibration and validation of modeled 5-year survival predictions among people with cystic fibrosis treated with the cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator modulator ivacaftor using United States registry data.Lisa J McGarryZahra BhaiwalaAndrea LopezConor ChandlerChristopher G PelligraJaime L RubinTheodore G Liou<h4>Objectives</h4>Cystic fibrosis (CF) is a rare genetic disease characterized by life-shortening lung function decline. Ivacaftor, a CF transmembrane conductance regulator modulator (CFTRm), was approved in 2012 for people with CF with specific gene mutations. We used real-world evidence of 5-year mortality impacts of ivacaftor in a US registry population to validate a CF disease-progression model that estimates the impact of ivacaftor on survival.<h4>Methods</h4>The model projects the impact of ivacaftor vs. standard care in people with CF aged ≥6 years with CFTR gating mutations by combining parametric equations fitted to historical registry survival data, with mortality hazards adjusted for fixed and time-varying person-level characteristics. Disease progression with standard care was derived from published registry studies and the expected impact of ivacaftor on clinical characteristics was derived from clinical trials. Individual-level baseline characteristics of the registry ivacaftor-treated population were entered into the model; 5-year model-projected mortality with credible intervals (CrIs) was compared with registry mortality to evaluate the model's validity.<h4>Results</h4>Post-calibration 5-year mortality projections closely approximated registry mortality in populations treated with standard care (6.4% modeled [95% CrI: 5.3% to 7.6%] vs. 6.0% observed) and ivacaftor (3.4% modeled [95% CrI: 2.7% to 4.4%] vs. 3.1% observed). The model accurately predicted 5-year relative risk of mortality (0.53 modeled [0.47 to 0.60] vs. 0.51 observed) in people treated with ivacaftor vs. standard care.<h4>Conclusions</h4>Modeled 5-year survival projections for people with CF initiating ivacaftor vs. standard care align closely with real-world registry data. Findings support the validity of modeling CF to predict long-term survival and estimate clinical and economic outcomes of CFTRm.https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0283479 |
| spellingShingle | Lisa J McGarry Zahra Bhaiwala Andrea Lopez Conor Chandler Christopher G Pelligra Jaime L Rubin Theodore G Liou Calibration and validation of modeled 5-year survival predictions among people with cystic fibrosis treated with the cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator modulator ivacaftor using United States registry data. PLoS ONE |
| title | Calibration and validation of modeled 5-year survival predictions among people with cystic fibrosis treated with the cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator modulator ivacaftor using United States registry data. |
| title_full | Calibration and validation of modeled 5-year survival predictions among people with cystic fibrosis treated with the cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator modulator ivacaftor using United States registry data. |
| title_fullStr | Calibration and validation of modeled 5-year survival predictions among people with cystic fibrosis treated with the cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator modulator ivacaftor using United States registry data. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Calibration and validation of modeled 5-year survival predictions among people with cystic fibrosis treated with the cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator modulator ivacaftor using United States registry data. |
| title_short | Calibration and validation of modeled 5-year survival predictions among people with cystic fibrosis treated with the cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator modulator ivacaftor using United States registry data. |
| title_sort | calibration and validation of modeled 5 year survival predictions among people with cystic fibrosis treated with the cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator modulator ivacaftor using united states registry data |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0283479 |
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