Predicting elections: Experts, polls, and fundamentals
This study analyzes the relative accuracy of experts, polls, and the so-called ‘fundamentals’ in predicting the popular vote in the four U.S. presidential elections from 2004 to 2016. Although the majority (62%) of 452 expert forecasts correctly predicted the directional error of polls, the typical...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Cambridge University Press
2018-07-01
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| Series: | Judgment and Decision Making |
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| Online Access: | https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S1930297500009219/type/journal_article |
| _version_ | 1797696026490961920 |
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| author | Andreas Graefe |
| author_facet | Andreas Graefe |
| author_sort | Andreas Graefe |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This study analyzes the relative accuracy of experts, polls, and the so-called ‘fundamentals’ in predicting the popular vote in the four U.S. presidential elections from 2004 to 2016. Although the majority (62%) of 452 expert forecasts correctly predicted the directional error of polls, the typical expert’s vote share forecast was 7% (of the error) less accurate than a simple polling average from the same day. The results further suggest that experts follow the polls and do not sufficiently harness information incorporated in the fundamentals. Combining expert forecasts and polls with a fundamentals-based reference class forecast reduced the error of experts and polls by 24% and 19%, respectively. The findings demonstrate the benefits of combining forecasts and the effectiveness of taking the outside view for debiasing expert judgment. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T03:20:39Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-f3a02f201b184823b81a8d0d71008400 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1930-2975 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T03:20:39Z |
| publishDate | 2018-07-01 |
| publisher | Cambridge University Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Judgment and Decision Making |
| spelling | doaj.art-f3a02f201b184823b81a8d0d710084002023-09-03T14:02:45ZengCambridge University PressJudgment and Decision Making1930-29752018-07-011333434410.1017/S1930297500009219Predicting elections: Experts, polls, and fundamentalsAndreas Graefe0Macromedia University, Munich, GermanyThis study analyzes the relative accuracy of experts, polls, and the so-called ‘fundamentals’ in predicting the popular vote in the four U.S. presidential elections from 2004 to 2016. Although the majority (62%) of 452 expert forecasts correctly predicted the directional error of polls, the typical expert’s vote share forecast was 7% (of the error) less accurate than a simple polling average from the same day. The results further suggest that experts follow the polls and do not sufficiently harness information incorporated in the fundamentals. Combining expert forecasts and polls with a fundamentals-based reference class forecast reduced the error of experts and polls by 24% and 19%, respectively. The findings demonstrate the benefits of combining forecasts and the effectiveness of taking the outside view for debiasing expert judgment.https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S1930297500009219/type/journal_articleelection forecastingexpert judgmentpollsbiasreference-class forecasting |
| spellingShingle | Andreas Graefe Predicting elections: Experts, polls, and fundamentals Judgment and Decision Making election forecasting expert judgment polls bias reference-class forecasting |
| title | Predicting elections: Experts, polls, and fundamentals |
| title_full | Predicting elections: Experts, polls, and fundamentals |
| title_fullStr | Predicting elections: Experts, polls, and fundamentals |
| title_full_unstemmed | Predicting elections: Experts, polls, and fundamentals |
| title_short | Predicting elections: Experts, polls, and fundamentals |
| title_sort | predicting elections experts polls and fundamentals |
| topic | election forecasting expert judgment polls bias reference-class forecasting |
| url | https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S1930297500009219/type/journal_article |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT andreasgraefe predictingelectionsexpertspollsandfundamentals |