Statistical Analysis and Forecasting of Rainfall Patterns and Trends in Gombe North-Eastern Nigeria
Rainfall in Nigeria is highly dynamic and variable on a temporal and spatial scale. This has taken a more pronounced dimension due to climate change. In this study, Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and Mann-Kendall test statistical tools were employed to analyze rainfall trends and patterns in Go...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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University of Baghdad
2022-06-01
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| Series: | Iraqi Journal of Physics |
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| Online Access: | https://ijp.uobaghdad.edu.iq/index.php/physics/article/view/989 |
| _version_ | 1811154873842925568 |
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| author | Abe A. O. Q. A. Adeniji Rabiu J. A. Adegboyega O. Raheem I. O. Rasaki M.G. Sada S. M. Fidelis L. |
| author_facet | Abe A. O. Q. A. Adeniji Rabiu J. A. Adegboyega O. Raheem I. O. Rasaki M.G. Sada S. M. Fidelis L. |
| author_sort | Abe A. O. |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description |
Rainfall in Nigeria is highly dynamic and variable on a temporal and spatial scale. This has taken a more pronounced dimension due to climate change. In this study, Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and Mann-Kendall test statistical tools were employed to analyze rainfall trends and patterns in Gombe metropolis between 1990 and 2020 and the ARIMA model was used for making the forecast for ten (10) years. Daily rainfall data of 31 years obtained from Nigerian Meteorological Agency, (NIMET) was used for the study. The daily rainfall data was subjected to several analyses. Standard precipitation index showed that alternation of wet and dry period conditions had been witnessed in the study area. The result obtained showed that there is an upward trend in the annual rainfall amount received in Gombe over the last 31 years at a rate of 3.98 mm/year. The results for the forecast shows that the annual rainfall to be received in Gombe continues in a range above the mean which serves as an indication that the decade will experience more wet years than dry years. The study concludes that the pattern of rainfall in Gombe is a cyclic pattern. The current trend may affect soil moisture, flooding and subsequently lead to ecological change. The study recommends that inhabitants of the study areas should plan their cropping season based on climatic information of their area.
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| first_indexed | 2024-04-10T04:23:24Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-f3b6d986fe93469ca4ffc39b4434e4fb |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2070-4003 2664-5548 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-10T04:23:24Z |
| publishDate | 2022-06-01 |
| publisher | University of Baghdad |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Iraqi Journal of Physics |
| spelling | doaj.art-f3b6d986fe93469ca4ffc39b4434e4fb2023-03-10T20:47:26ZengUniversity of BaghdadIraqi Journal of Physics2070-40032664-55482022-06-0120210.30723/ijp.v20i2.9891050Statistical Analysis and Forecasting of Rainfall Patterns and Trends in Gombe North-Eastern NigeriaAbe A. O. 0Q. A. Adeniji1Rabiu J. A.2Adegboyega O.3Raheem I. O.4Rasaki M.G.5Sada S. M.6Fidelis L.7Department of Physics, Federal University of Kashere, Gombe State, NigeriaDepartment of Physics, Federal University of Kashere, Gombe State, NigeriaDepartment of Physics, Federal University of Kashere, Gombe State, NigeriaDepartment of Physics, Emmanuel Alayande College of Education, Oyo State, NigeriaDepartment of Physics, Federal University of Kashere, Gombe State, NigeriaDepartment of Mathematics, Lagos State University of Education, Lagos, NigeriaDepartment of Biological Science, Federal University of Kashere, Gombe State, NigeriaDepartment of Physics, Federal University of Kashere, Gombe State, Nigeria. Rainfall in Nigeria is highly dynamic and variable on a temporal and spatial scale. This has taken a more pronounced dimension due to climate change. In this study, Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and Mann-Kendall test statistical tools were employed to analyze rainfall trends and patterns in Gombe metropolis between 1990 and 2020 and the ARIMA model was used for making the forecast for ten (10) years. Daily rainfall data of 31 years obtained from Nigerian Meteorological Agency, (NIMET) was used for the study. The daily rainfall data was subjected to several analyses. Standard precipitation index showed that alternation of wet and dry period conditions had been witnessed in the study area. The result obtained showed that there is an upward trend in the annual rainfall amount received in Gombe over the last 31 years at a rate of 3.98 mm/year. The results for the forecast shows that the annual rainfall to be received in Gombe continues in a range above the mean which serves as an indication that the decade will experience more wet years than dry years. The study concludes that the pattern of rainfall in Gombe is a cyclic pattern. The current trend may affect soil moisture, flooding and subsequently lead to ecological change. The study recommends that inhabitants of the study areas should plan their cropping season based on climatic information of their area. https://ijp.uobaghdad.edu.iq/index.php/physics/article/view/989Rainfall patternMachine LearningGombeARIMASPI |
| spellingShingle | Abe A. O. Q. A. Adeniji Rabiu J. A. Adegboyega O. Raheem I. O. Rasaki M.G. Sada S. M. Fidelis L. Statistical Analysis and Forecasting of Rainfall Patterns and Trends in Gombe North-Eastern Nigeria Iraqi Journal of Physics Rainfall pattern Machine Learning Gombe ARIMA SPI |
| title | Statistical Analysis and Forecasting of Rainfall Patterns and Trends in Gombe North-Eastern Nigeria |
| title_full | Statistical Analysis and Forecasting of Rainfall Patterns and Trends in Gombe North-Eastern Nigeria |
| title_fullStr | Statistical Analysis and Forecasting of Rainfall Patterns and Trends in Gombe North-Eastern Nigeria |
| title_full_unstemmed | Statistical Analysis and Forecasting of Rainfall Patterns and Trends in Gombe North-Eastern Nigeria |
| title_short | Statistical Analysis and Forecasting of Rainfall Patterns and Trends in Gombe North-Eastern Nigeria |
| title_sort | statistical analysis and forecasting of rainfall patterns and trends in gombe north eastern nigeria |
| topic | Rainfall pattern Machine Learning Gombe ARIMA SPI |
| url | https://ijp.uobaghdad.edu.iq/index.php/physics/article/view/989 |
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