Reduction in surface climate change achieved by the 1987 Montreal Protocol
The benefits of the 1987 Montreal Protocol in reducing chlorofluorocarbon emissions, repairing the stratospheric ozone hole, shielding incoming UV radiation, reducing the incidence of skin cancer and mitigating negative ecosystem effects are all well documented. Projected future climate impacts have...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2019-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab4874 |
| _version_ | 1797747965867065344 |
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| author | Rishav Goyal Matthew H England Alex Sen Gupta Martin Jucker |
| author_facet | Rishav Goyal Matthew H England Alex Sen Gupta Martin Jucker |
| author_sort | Rishav Goyal |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The benefits of the 1987 Montreal Protocol in reducing chlorofluorocarbon emissions, repairing the stratospheric ozone hole, shielding incoming UV radiation, reducing the incidence of skin cancer and mitigating negative ecosystem effects are all well documented. Projected future climate impacts have also been described, mainly focused on a reduced impact of the mid-latitude jet as the ozone hole gradually repairs. However, there is little appreciation of the surface warming that has been avoided as a result of the Montreal Protocol, despite CFCs being potent greenhouse gases. Instead, the issue of ozone depletion and climate change are often thought of as two distinct problems, even though both ozone and CFCs impact Earth’s radiation budget. Here we show that a substantial amount of warming has been avoided because of the Montreal Protocol, even after factoring in the surface cooling associated with stratospheric ozone depletion. As of today, as much as 1.1 °C warming has been avoided over parts of the Arctic. Future climate benefits are even stronger, with 3 °C–4 °C Arctic warming and ∼1 °C global average warming avoided by 2050; corresponding to a ∼25% mitigation of global warming. The Montreal Protocol has thus not only been a major success in repairing the stratospheric ozone hole, it has also achieved substantial mitigation of anthropogenic climate change both today and into the future. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:58:10Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-f3cc826e0e35402fb0f5199ebe604a42 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:58:10Z |
| publishDate | 2019-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-f3cc826e0e35402fb0f5199ebe604a422023-08-09T14:46:39ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262019-01-01141212404110.1088/1748-9326/ab4874Reduction in surface climate change achieved by the 1987 Montreal ProtocolRishav Goyal0Matthew H England1Alex Sen Gupta2Martin Jucker3Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales , NSW 2052, Australia; ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of New South Wales , NSW, AustraliaClimate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales , NSW 2052, Australia; ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of New South Wales , NSW, AustraliaClimate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales , NSW 2052, AustraliaClimate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales , NSW 2052, AustraliaThe benefits of the 1987 Montreal Protocol in reducing chlorofluorocarbon emissions, repairing the stratospheric ozone hole, shielding incoming UV radiation, reducing the incidence of skin cancer and mitigating negative ecosystem effects are all well documented. Projected future climate impacts have also been described, mainly focused on a reduced impact of the mid-latitude jet as the ozone hole gradually repairs. However, there is little appreciation of the surface warming that has been avoided as a result of the Montreal Protocol, despite CFCs being potent greenhouse gases. Instead, the issue of ozone depletion and climate change are often thought of as two distinct problems, even though both ozone and CFCs impact Earth’s radiation budget. Here we show that a substantial amount of warming has been avoided because of the Montreal Protocol, even after factoring in the surface cooling associated with stratospheric ozone depletion. As of today, as much as 1.1 °C warming has been avoided over parts of the Arctic. Future climate benefits are even stronger, with 3 °C–4 °C Arctic warming and ∼1 °C global average warming avoided by 2050; corresponding to a ∼25% mitigation of global warming. The Montreal Protocol has thus not only been a major success in repairing the stratospheric ozone hole, it has also achieved substantial mitigation of anthropogenic climate change both today and into the future.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab4874climate change mitigationMontreal ProtocolAntarctic ozone holechlorofluorocarbonsozone depletion |
| spellingShingle | Rishav Goyal Matthew H England Alex Sen Gupta Martin Jucker Reduction in surface climate change achieved by the 1987 Montreal Protocol Environmental Research Letters climate change mitigation Montreal Protocol Antarctic ozone hole chlorofluorocarbons ozone depletion |
| title | Reduction in surface climate change achieved by the 1987 Montreal Protocol |
| title_full | Reduction in surface climate change achieved by the 1987 Montreal Protocol |
| title_fullStr | Reduction in surface climate change achieved by the 1987 Montreal Protocol |
| title_full_unstemmed | Reduction in surface climate change achieved by the 1987 Montreal Protocol |
| title_short | Reduction in surface climate change achieved by the 1987 Montreal Protocol |
| title_sort | reduction in surface climate change achieved by the 1987 montreal protocol |
| topic | climate change mitigation Montreal Protocol Antarctic ozone hole chlorofluorocarbons ozone depletion |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab4874 |
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