Future Colorado River Basin Drought and Surplus
Historical and future drought and surplus periods in the Colorado River basin are evaluated based on eight climate scenarios. Unimpaired streamflow from 17 stations in the Colorado River are evaluated based on U.S. Geological Survey, Bureau of Reclamation, and Coupled Modeled Intercomparison Project...
| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
MDPI AG
2022-12-01
|
| Series: | Hydrology |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2306-5338/9/12/227 |
| _version_ | 1797457368646156288 |
|---|---|
| author | Rama Bedri Thomas Piechota |
| author_facet | Rama Bedri Thomas Piechota |
| author_sort | Rama Bedri |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Historical and future drought and surplus periods in the Colorado River basin are evaluated based on eight climate scenarios. Unimpaired streamflow from 17 stations in the Colorado River are evaluated based on U.S. Geological Survey, Bureau of Reclamation, and Coupled Modeled Intercomparison Projection 5 downscaled data from 1950–2099. Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios are considered for four climate models (HadGEM2-ES, CNRM-CM5, CanESM2, MI-ROC5). Drought (surplus) quantities, magnitudes, severities, and water year flows are compared for the historical and future periods. Results indicate that there is a significant difference between the historical record and future projections. The results are not consistent in terms of increase of drought or surplus; however, the intensity (as measured by magnitude and duration) will likely increase for both RCP 4.5 and 8.5. The CanESM2 and CNRM-CM5 models project wetter scenarios, and HadGEM2 and MI-ROC5 models project drier scenarios. For the critical Lees Ferry station, models indicate a chance of higher drought and surplus length and magnitude on the order of two times the historical period. In addition, basin wide flow at Lees Ferry had a shift in the future mean ensemble of approximately 3–10% for the water year. Future hydrologic changes will heighten the need for appropriate management and infrastructure options available to adapt to these changes. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T16:21:13Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-f3fc1151b6354f68b21bc36759e6a8b2 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2306-5338 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T16:21:13Z |
| publishDate | 2022-12-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Hydrology |
| spelling | doaj.art-f3fc1151b6354f68b21bc36759e6a8b22023-11-24T15:17:59ZengMDPI AGHydrology2306-53382022-12-0191222710.3390/hydrology9120227Future Colorado River Basin Drought and SurplusRama Bedri0Thomas Piechota1Schmid College of Science and Technology, Chapman University, Orange, CA 92866, USASchmid College of Science and Technology, Chapman University, Orange, CA 92866, USAHistorical and future drought and surplus periods in the Colorado River basin are evaluated based on eight climate scenarios. Unimpaired streamflow from 17 stations in the Colorado River are evaluated based on U.S. Geological Survey, Bureau of Reclamation, and Coupled Modeled Intercomparison Projection 5 downscaled data from 1950–2099. Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios are considered for four climate models (HadGEM2-ES, CNRM-CM5, CanESM2, MI-ROC5). Drought (surplus) quantities, magnitudes, severities, and water year flows are compared for the historical and future periods. Results indicate that there is a significant difference between the historical record and future projections. The results are not consistent in terms of increase of drought or surplus; however, the intensity (as measured by magnitude and duration) will likely increase for both RCP 4.5 and 8.5. The CanESM2 and CNRM-CM5 models project wetter scenarios, and HadGEM2 and MI-ROC5 models project drier scenarios. For the critical Lees Ferry station, models indicate a chance of higher drought and surplus length and magnitude on the order of two times the historical period. In addition, basin wide flow at Lees Ferry had a shift in the future mean ensemble of approximately 3–10% for the water year. Future hydrologic changes will heighten the need for appropriate management and infrastructure options available to adapt to these changes.https://www.mdpi.com/2306-5338/9/12/227droughtclimate changewaterhydrologystreamflow |
| spellingShingle | Rama Bedri Thomas Piechota Future Colorado River Basin Drought and Surplus Hydrology drought climate change water hydrology streamflow |
| title | Future Colorado River Basin Drought and Surplus |
| title_full | Future Colorado River Basin Drought and Surplus |
| title_fullStr | Future Colorado River Basin Drought and Surplus |
| title_full_unstemmed | Future Colorado River Basin Drought and Surplus |
| title_short | Future Colorado River Basin Drought and Surplus |
| title_sort | future colorado river basin drought and surplus |
| topic | drought climate change water hydrology streamflow |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2306-5338/9/12/227 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT ramabedri futurecoloradoriverbasindroughtandsurplus AT thomaspiechota futurecoloradoriverbasindroughtandsurplus |