Prediction of the potential distribution of the predatory mite Neoseiulus californicus (McGregor) in China under current and future climate scenarios
Abstract Neoseiulus californicus is a predatory mite with a wide global distribution that can effectively control a variety of pest mites. In this study, MaxEnt was used to analyse the potential distribution of N. californicus in China and the BCC-CSM2-MR model was used to predict changes in the sui...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
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Nature Portfolio
2022-07-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-15308-1 |
| _version_ | 1811293857381351424 |
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| author | Lin Chen Chunxian Jiang Xueyan Zhang Cancan Song Rulin Wang Xian Wang Qing Li |
| author_facet | Lin Chen Chunxian Jiang Xueyan Zhang Cancan Song Rulin Wang Xian Wang Qing Li |
| author_sort | Lin Chen |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Neoseiulus californicus is a predatory mite with a wide global distribution that can effectively control a variety of pest mites. In this study, MaxEnt was used to analyse the potential distribution of N. californicus in China and the BCC-CSM2-MR model was used to predict changes in the suitable areas for the mite from 2021 to 2100 under the scenarios of SSP126, SSP245 and SSP585. The results showed that (1) the average of area under curve value of the model was over 0.95, which demonstrated an excellent model accuracy. (2) Annual mean temperature (Bio1), precipitation of coldest quarter (Bio19), and precipitation of driest quarter (Bio17) were the main climatic variables that affected and controlled the potential distribution of N. californicus, with suitable ranges of 6.97–23.27 °C, 71.36–3924.8 mm, and 41.94–585.08 mm, respectively. (3) The suitable areas for N. californicus were mainly distributed in the southern half of China, with a total suitable area of 226.22 × 104 km2 in current. Under the future climate scenario, compared with the current scenario, lowly and moderately suitable areas of N. californicus increased, while highly suitable areas decreased. Therefore, it may be necessary to cultivate high-temperature resistant strains of N. californicus to adapt to future environmental changes. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-13T05:07:47Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-f4068b2d9a804086bc633a6563959136 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-13T05:07:47Z |
| publishDate | 2022-07-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
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| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj.art-f4068b2d9a804086bc633a65639591362022-12-22T03:01:07ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222022-07-0112111410.1038/s41598-022-15308-1Prediction of the potential distribution of the predatory mite Neoseiulus californicus (McGregor) in China under current and future climate scenariosLin Chen0Chunxian Jiang1Xueyan Zhang2Cancan Song3Rulin Wang4Xian Wang5Qing Li6College of Agronomy, Sichuan Agricultural UniversityCollege of Agronomy, Sichuan Agricultural UniversityCollege of Agronomy, Sichuan Agricultural UniversityCollege of Agronomy, Sichuan Agricultural UniversitySichuan Provincial Rural Economic Information CentreCollege of Agronomy, Sichuan Agricultural UniversityCollege of Agronomy, Sichuan Agricultural UniversityAbstract Neoseiulus californicus is a predatory mite with a wide global distribution that can effectively control a variety of pest mites. In this study, MaxEnt was used to analyse the potential distribution of N. californicus in China and the BCC-CSM2-MR model was used to predict changes in the suitable areas for the mite from 2021 to 2100 under the scenarios of SSP126, SSP245 and SSP585. The results showed that (1) the average of area under curve value of the model was over 0.95, which demonstrated an excellent model accuracy. (2) Annual mean temperature (Bio1), precipitation of coldest quarter (Bio19), and precipitation of driest quarter (Bio17) were the main climatic variables that affected and controlled the potential distribution of N. californicus, with suitable ranges of 6.97–23.27 °C, 71.36–3924.8 mm, and 41.94–585.08 mm, respectively. (3) The suitable areas for N. californicus were mainly distributed in the southern half of China, with a total suitable area of 226.22 × 104 km2 in current. Under the future climate scenario, compared with the current scenario, lowly and moderately suitable areas of N. californicus increased, while highly suitable areas decreased. Therefore, it may be necessary to cultivate high-temperature resistant strains of N. californicus to adapt to future environmental changes.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-15308-1 |
| spellingShingle | Lin Chen Chunxian Jiang Xueyan Zhang Cancan Song Rulin Wang Xian Wang Qing Li Prediction of the potential distribution of the predatory mite Neoseiulus californicus (McGregor) in China under current and future climate scenarios Scientific Reports |
| title | Prediction of the potential distribution of the predatory mite Neoseiulus californicus (McGregor) in China under current and future climate scenarios |
| title_full | Prediction of the potential distribution of the predatory mite Neoseiulus californicus (McGregor) in China under current and future climate scenarios |
| title_fullStr | Prediction of the potential distribution of the predatory mite Neoseiulus californicus (McGregor) in China under current and future climate scenarios |
| title_full_unstemmed | Prediction of the potential distribution of the predatory mite Neoseiulus californicus (McGregor) in China under current and future climate scenarios |
| title_short | Prediction of the potential distribution of the predatory mite Neoseiulus californicus (McGregor) in China under current and future climate scenarios |
| title_sort | prediction of the potential distribution of the predatory mite neoseiulus californicus mcgregor in china under current and future climate scenarios |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-15308-1 |
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