| Summary: | Background. High calcineurin inhibitor (CNI) intrapatient variability (IPV) has been associated with poor kidney allograft outcomes. However, the relationship between early allograft histological changes, their progression, and CNI-IPV is less well studied. Hence, we evaluated effect of CNI-IPV defined by the degree of fluctuation of CNI levels in all kidney transplant patients over 2 to 12 months posttransplant on early allograft inflammation, subsequent chronicity, and later clinical outcomes.
Methods. Two hundred eighty-six patients transplanted from January 2013 to November 2014 were enrolled with protocol and indication biopsies. The mean CNI-IPV was 28.5% and a quarter of our cohort had IPV of 35% or greater (high CNI IPV). Baseline demographic differences were similar between high and low CNI IPV groups.
Results. High CNI-IPV was associated with a higher incidence of acute rejection (AR) within 1 year (52% vs 31% P < 0.001), more persistent/recurrent AR by 1 year (18.2% vs 6.2%, P = 0.002), higher-grade AR (≥Banff 1B, 27.5% vs 7.3%, P < 0.001), and worse interstitial fibrosis/tubular atrophy (P = 0.005). High CNI-IPV was associated with increased graft loss (GL) and impending graft loss (iGL, defined as eGFR<30 ml/min and >30% decline in eGFR from baseline), regardless of donor-specific antibody, delayed graft function, rejection, or race. In a multivariate Cox Proportional Hazards Model, high CNI-IPV was independently associated with GL + iGL (hazard ratio, 3.1; 95% confidence interval, 1.6–5.9, P < 0.001).
Conclusions. High CNI-IPV within 1 year posttransplant is associated with higher incidence of AR, severe AR, allograft chronicity, GL, and iGL. This represents a subset of patients who are at risk for poor kidney transplant outcomes and potentially a modifiable risk factor for late allograft loss.
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