Reemergence of Human Monkeypox and Declining Population Immunity in the Context of Urbanization, Nigeria, 2017–2020
A monkeypox outbreak in Nigeria during 2017–2020 provides an illustrative case study for emerging zoonoses. We built a statistical model to simulate declining immunity from monkeypox at 2 levels: At the individual level, we used a constant rate of decline in immunity of 1.29% per year as smallpox va...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
2021-04-01
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| Series: | Emerging Infectious Diseases |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/27/4/20-3569_article |
| _version_ | 1818881200488448000 |
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| author | Phi-Yen Nguyen Whenayon Simeon Ajisegiri Valentina Costantino Abrar A. Chughtai C. Raina MacIntyre |
| author_facet | Phi-Yen Nguyen Whenayon Simeon Ajisegiri Valentina Costantino Abrar A. Chughtai C. Raina MacIntyre |
| author_sort | Phi-Yen Nguyen |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | A monkeypox outbreak in Nigeria during 2017–2020 provides an illustrative case study for emerging zoonoses. We built a statistical model to simulate declining immunity from monkeypox at 2 levels: At the individual level, we used a constant rate of decline in immunity of 1.29% per year as smallpox vaccination rates fell. At the population level, the cohort of vaccinated residents decreased over time because of deaths and births. By 2016, only 10.1% of the total population in Nigeria was vaccinated against smallpox; the serologic immunity level was 25.7% among vaccinated persons and 2.6% in the overall population. The substantial resurgence of monkeypox in Nigeria in 2017 appears to have been driven by a combination of population growth, accumulation of unvaccinated cohorts, and decline in smallpox vaccine immunity. The expanding unvaccinated population means that entire households, not just children, are now more susceptible to monkeypox, increasing risk of human-to-human transmission. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-19T14:58:05Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-f4680bfafcda4f459df5bfbb2a27f45d |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1080-6040 1080-6059 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-19T14:58:05Z |
| publishDate | 2021-04-01 |
| publisher | Centers for Disease Control and Prevention |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Emerging Infectious Diseases |
| spelling | doaj.art-f4680bfafcda4f459df5bfbb2a27f45d2022-12-21T20:16:39ZengCenters for Disease Control and PreventionEmerging Infectious Diseases1080-60401080-60592021-04-012741007101410.3201/eid2704.203569Reemergence of Human Monkeypox and Declining Population Immunity in the Context of Urbanization, Nigeria, 2017–2020Phi-Yen NguyenWhenayon Simeon AjisegiriValentina CostantinoAbrar A. ChughtaiC. Raina MacIntyreA monkeypox outbreak in Nigeria during 2017–2020 provides an illustrative case study for emerging zoonoses. We built a statistical model to simulate declining immunity from monkeypox at 2 levels: At the individual level, we used a constant rate of decline in immunity of 1.29% per year as smallpox vaccination rates fell. At the population level, the cohort of vaccinated residents decreased over time because of deaths and births. By 2016, only 10.1% of the total population in Nigeria was vaccinated against smallpox; the serologic immunity level was 25.7% among vaccinated persons and 2.6% in the overall population. The substantial resurgence of monkeypox in Nigeria in 2017 appears to have been driven by a combination of population growth, accumulation of unvaccinated cohorts, and decline in smallpox vaccine immunity. The expanding unvaccinated population means that entire households, not just children, are now more susceptible to monkeypox, increasing risk of human-to-human transmission.https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/27/4/20-3569_articlehuman-to-human transmissionimmunityimmunoglobulinmonkeypoxneutralizing antibodiesNigeria |
| spellingShingle | Phi-Yen Nguyen Whenayon Simeon Ajisegiri Valentina Costantino Abrar A. Chughtai C. Raina MacIntyre Reemergence of Human Monkeypox and Declining Population Immunity in the Context of Urbanization, Nigeria, 2017–2020 Emerging Infectious Diseases human-to-human transmission immunity immunoglobulin monkeypox neutralizing antibodies Nigeria |
| title | Reemergence of Human Monkeypox and Declining Population Immunity in the Context of Urbanization, Nigeria, 2017–2020 |
| title_full | Reemergence of Human Monkeypox and Declining Population Immunity in the Context of Urbanization, Nigeria, 2017–2020 |
| title_fullStr | Reemergence of Human Monkeypox and Declining Population Immunity in the Context of Urbanization, Nigeria, 2017–2020 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Reemergence of Human Monkeypox and Declining Population Immunity in the Context of Urbanization, Nigeria, 2017–2020 |
| title_short | Reemergence of Human Monkeypox and Declining Population Immunity in the Context of Urbanization, Nigeria, 2017–2020 |
| title_sort | reemergence of human monkeypox and declining population immunity in the context of urbanization nigeria 2017 2020 |
| topic | human-to-human transmission immunity immunoglobulin monkeypox neutralizing antibodies Nigeria |
| url | https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/27/4/20-3569_article |
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