Projected U.S. drought extremes through the twenty-first century with vapor pressure deficit
Abstract Global warming is expected to enhance drought extremes in the United States throughout the twenty-first century. Projecting these changes can be complex in regions with large variability in atmospheric and soil moisture on small spatial scales. Vapor Pressure Deficit (VPD) is a valuable mea...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2022-05-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-12516-7 |
| _version_ | 1818548271538241536 |
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| author | Brandi L. Gamelin Jeremy Feinstein Jiali Wang Julie Bessac Eugene Yan Veerabhadra R. Kotamarthi |
| author_facet | Brandi L. Gamelin Jeremy Feinstein Jiali Wang Julie Bessac Eugene Yan Veerabhadra R. Kotamarthi |
| author_sort | Brandi L. Gamelin |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Global warming is expected to enhance drought extremes in the United States throughout the twenty-first century. Projecting these changes can be complex in regions with large variability in atmospheric and soil moisture on small spatial scales. Vapor Pressure Deficit (VPD) is a valuable measure of evaporative demand as moisture moves from the surface into the atmosphere and a dynamic measure of drought. Here, VPD is used to identify short-term drought with the Standardized VPD Drought Index (SVDI); and used to characterize future extreme droughts using grid dependent stationary and non-stationary generalized extreme value (GEV) models, and a random sampling technique is developed to quantify multimodel uncertainties. The GEV analysis was performed with projections using the Weather Research and Forecasting model, downscaled from three Global Climate Models based on the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 for present, mid-century and late-century. Results show the VPD based index (SVDI) accurately identifies the timing and magnitude short-term droughts, and extreme VPD is increasing across the United States and by the end of the twenty-first century. The number of days VPD is above 9 kPa increases by 10 days along California’s coastline, 30–40 days in the northwest and Midwest, and 100 days in California’s Central Valley. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-12T08:17:44Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-f49654f097ab4fcebcf047af7e8c0463 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-12T08:17:44Z |
| publishDate | 2022-05-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj.art-f49654f097ab4fcebcf047af7e8c04632022-12-22T00:31:30ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222022-05-0112111510.1038/s41598-022-12516-7Projected U.S. drought extremes through the twenty-first century with vapor pressure deficitBrandi L. Gamelin0Jeremy Feinstein1Jiali Wang2Julie Bessac3Eugene Yan4Veerabhadra R. Kotamarthi5Environmental Science Division, Argonne National LaboratoryEnvironmental Science Division, Argonne National LaboratoryEnvironmental Science Division, Argonne National LaboratoryEnvironmental Science Division, Argonne National LaboratoryEnvironmental Science Division, Argonne National LaboratoryEnvironmental Science Division, Argonne National LaboratoryAbstract Global warming is expected to enhance drought extremes in the United States throughout the twenty-first century. Projecting these changes can be complex in regions with large variability in atmospheric and soil moisture on small spatial scales. Vapor Pressure Deficit (VPD) is a valuable measure of evaporative demand as moisture moves from the surface into the atmosphere and a dynamic measure of drought. Here, VPD is used to identify short-term drought with the Standardized VPD Drought Index (SVDI); and used to characterize future extreme droughts using grid dependent stationary and non-stationary generalized extreme value (GEV) models, and a random sampling technique is developed to quantify multimodel uncertainties. The GEV analysis was performed with projections using the Weather Research and Forecasting model, downscaled from three Global Climate Models based on the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 for present, mid-century and late-century. Results show the VPD based index (SVDI) accurately identifies the timing and magnitude short-term droughts, and extreme VPD is increasing across the United States and by the end of the twenty-first century. The number of days VPD is above 9 kPa increases by 10 days along California’s coastline, 30–40 days in the northwest and Midwest, and 100 days in California’s Central Valley.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-12516-7 |
| spellingShingle | Brandi L. Gamelin Jeremy Feinstein Jiali Wang Julie Bessac Eugene Yan Veerabhadra R. Kotamarthi Projected U.S. drought extremes through the twenty-first century with vapor pressure deficit Scientific Reports |
| title | Projected U.S. drought extremes through the twenty-first century with vapor pressure deficit |
| title_full | Projected U.S. drought extremes through the twenty-first century with vapor pressure deficit |
| title_fullStr | Projected U.S. drought extremes through the twenty-first century with vapor pressure deficit |
| title_full_unstemmed | Projected U.S. drought extremes through the twenty-first century with vapor pressure deficit |
| title_short | Projected U.S. drought extremes through the twenty-first century with vapor pressure deficit |
| title_sort | projected u s drought extremes through the twenty first century with vapor pressure deficit |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-12516-7 |
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