FOREIGN TOURIST ARRIVAL FORECASTING TO BALI USING CASCADE FORWARD BACKPROPAGATION
Bali has a recognized tourism potential in the world arena. In order to improve the quality and development of the tourism sector in the midst of global competition, it is necessary to formulate appropriate strategies by decision makers such as private parties and government. In support of more acc...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Informatics Department, Engineering Faculty
2020-12-01
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| Series: | Jurnal Ilmiah Kursor: Menuju Solusi Teknologi Informasi |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://kursorjournal.org/index.php/kursor/article/view/252 |
| _version_ | 1797743957437841408 |
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| author | Ayu Nikki Asvikarani I Made Widiartha Made Agung Raharja |
| author_facet | Ayu Nikki Asvikarani I Made Widiartha Made Agung Raharja |
| author_sort | Ayu Nikki Asvikarani |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description |
Bali has a recognized tourism potential in the world arena. In order to improve the quality and development of the tourism sector in the midst of global competition, it is necessary to formulate appropriate strategies by decision makers such as private parties and government. In support of more accurate decision making, the authors make a system of forecasting the number of foreign tourist visits to Bali Province using Cascade Forward Backpropagation (CFB) method with coverage of Australia, Japan, and United Kingdom which are the top 3 countries with the highest foreign tourist arrival to Bali in that years. Factors used as input in forecasting include the number of visits of foreign tourists the previous year, the population of countries of origin of foreign tourists, Gross Domestic Product at current prices of countries of origin of foreign tourists, and Relative Consumer Price Index Origin of foreign tourists. In this study, optimization of activation function parameters, hidden neurons, and learning rate to obtain forecasting results with the lowest error rate. Forecasting results using the CFB method produces a fairly good accuracy with MAPE range of 6 - 30% where the activation function tanh work better than sigmoid activation function.
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| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:02:58Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-f4a053eee41b45479ccdd12e9aaca8b0 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 0216-0544 2301-6914 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:02:58Z |
| publishDate | 2020-12-01 |
| publisher | Informatics Department, Engineering Faculty |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Jurnal Ilmiah Kursor: Menuju Solusi Teknologi Informasi |
| spelling | doaj.art-f4a053eee41b45479ccdd12e9aaca8b02023-08-13T20:42:20ZengInformatics Department, Engineering FacultyJurnal Ilmiah Kursor: Menuju Solusi Teknologi Informasi0216-05442301-69142020-12-0110410.21107/kursor.v10i4.252FOREIGN TOURIST ARRIVAL FORECASTING TO BALI USING CASCADE FORWARD BACKPROPAGATIONAyu Nikki Asvikarani0I Made Widiartha1Made Agung Raharja2Computer Science Department, Faculty of Math and Science, Udayana UniversityComputer Science Department, Faculty of Math and Science, Udayana UniversityComputer Science Department, Faculty of Math and Science, Udayana University Bali has a recognized tourism potential in the world arena. In order to improve the quality and development of the tourism sector in the midst of global competition, it is necessary to formulate appropriate strategies by decision makers such as private parties and government. In support of more accurate decision making, the authors make a system of forecasting the number of foreign tourist visits to Bali Province using Cascade Forward Backpropagation (CFB) method with coverage of Australia, Japan, and United Kingdom which are the top 3 countries with the highest foreign tourist arrival to Bali in that years. Factors used as input in forecasting include the number of visits of foreign tourists the previous year, the population of countries of origin of foreign tourists, Gross Domestic Product at current prices of countries of origin of foreign tourists, and Relative Consumer Price Index Origin of foreign tourists. In this study, optimization of activation function parameters, hidden neurons, and learning rate to obtain forecasting results with the lowest error rate. Forecasting results using the CFB method produces a fairly good accuracy with MAPE range of 6 - 30% where the activation function tanh work better than sigmoid activation function. https://kursorjournal.org/index.php/kursor/article/view/252artificial neural networkcascade forward backpropagationforecastingtourism |
| spellingShingle | Ayu Nikki Asvikarani I Made Widiartha Made Agung Raharja FOREIGN TOURIST ARRIVAL FORECASTING TO BALI USING CASCADE FORWARD BACKPROPAGATION Jurnal Ilmiah Kursor: Menuju Solusi Teknologi Informasi artificial neural network cascade forward backpropagation forecasting tourism |
| title | FOREIGN TOURIST ARRIVAL FORECASTING TO BALI USING CASCADE FORWARD BACKPROPAGATION |
| title_full | FOREIGN TOURIST ARRIVAL FORECASTING TO BALI USING CASCADE FORWARD BACKPROPAGATION |
| title_fullStr | FOREIGN TOURIST ARRIVAL FORECASTING TO BALI USING CASCADE FORWARD BACKPROPAGATION |
| title_full_unstemmed | FOREIGN TOURIST ARRIVAL FORECASTING TO BALI USING CASCADE FORWARD BACKPROPAGATION |
| title_short | FOREIGN TOURIST ARRIVAL FORECASTING TO BALI USING CASCADE FORWARD BACKPROPAGATION |
| title_sort | foreign tourist arrival forecasting to bali using cascade forward backpropagation |
| topic | artificial neural network cascade forward backpropagation forecasting tourism |
| url | https://kursorjournal.org/index.php/kursor/article/view/252 |
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