El Niño and other climatic drivers of epidemic malaria in Ethiopia: new tools for national health adaptation plans
Abstract Background Ethiopia has a history of climate related malaria epidemics. An improved understanding of malaria–climate interactions is needed to inform malaria control and national adaptation plans. Methods Malaria–climate associations in Ethiopia were assessed using (a) monthly climate data...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
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BMC
2023-06-01
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| Series: | Malaria Journal |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-023-04621-3 |
| _version_ | 1797795886545240064 |
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| author | Adugna Woyessa Asher Siebert Aisha Owusu Rémi Cousin Tufa Dinku Madeleine C. Thomson |
| author_facet | Adugna Woyessa Asher Siebert Aisha Owusu Rémi Cousin Tufa Dinku Madeleine C. Thomson |
| author_sort | Adugna Woyessa |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background Ethiopia has a history of climate related malaria epidemics. An improved understanding of malaria–climate interactions is needed to inform malaria control and national adaptation plans. Methods Malaria–climate associations in Ethiopia were assessed using (a) monthly climate data (1981–2016) from the Ethiopian National Meteorological Agency (NMA), (b) sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from the eastern Pacific, Indian Ocean and Tropical Atlantic and (c) historical malaria epidemic information obtained from the literature. Data analysed spanned 1950–2016. Individual analyses were undertaken over relevant time periods. The impact of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on seasonal and spatial patterns of rainfall and minimum temperature (Tmin) and maximum temperature (Tmax) was explored using NMA online Maprooms. The relationship of historic malaria epidemics (local or widespread) and concurrent ENSO phases (El Niño, Neutral, La Niña) and climate conditions (including drought) was explored in various ways. The relationships between SSTs (ENSO, Indian Ocean Dipole and Tropical Atlantic), rainfall, Tmin, Tmax and malaria epidemics in Amhara region were also explored. Results El Niño events are strongly related to higher Tmax across the country, drought in north-west Ethiopia during the July–August–September (JAS) rainy season and unusually heavy rain in the semi-arid south-east during the October–November–December (OND) season. La Niña conditions approximate the reverse. At the national level malaria epidemics mostly occur following the JAS rainy season and widespread epidemics are commonly associated with El Niño events when Tmax is high, and drought is common. In the Amhara region, malaria epidemics were not associated with ENSO, but with warm Tropical Atlantic SSTs and higher rainfall. Conclusion Malaria–climate relationships in Ethiopia are complex, unravelling them requires good climate and malaria data (as well as data on potential confounders) and an understanding of the regional and local climate system. The development of climate informed early warning systems must, therefore, target a specific region and season when predictability is high and where the climate drivers of malaria are sufficiently well understood. An El Niño event is likely in the coming years. Warming temperatures, political instability in some regions, and declining investments from international donors, implies an increasing risk of climate-related malaria epidemics. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-13T03:24:48Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-f4baf9667d2f467ca0f9975f4c3568bf |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1475-2875 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-13T03:24:48Z |
| publishDate | 2023-06-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Malaria Journal |
| spelling | doaj.art-f4baf9667d2f467ca0f9975f4c3568bf2023-06-25T11:09:43ZengBMCMalaria Journal1475-28752023-06-0122111910.1186/s12936-023-04621-3El Niño and other climatic drivers of epidemic malaria in Ethiopia: new tools for national health adaptation plansAdugna Woyessa0Asher Siebert1Aisha Owusu2Rémi Cousin3Tufa Dinku4Madeleine C. Thomson5Ethiopian Public Health InstituteInternational Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia UniversityCollege of Atmospheric and Geographical Sciences, Oklahoma UniversityInternational Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia UniversityInternational Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia UniversityInternational Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia UniversityAbstract Background Ethiopia has a history of climate related malaria epidemics. An improved understanding of malaria–climate interactions is needed to inform malaria control and national adaptation plans. Methods Malaria–climate associations in Ethiopia were assessed using (a) monthly climate data (1981–2016) from the Ethiopian National Meteorological Agency (NMA), (b) sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from the eastern Pacific, Indian Ocean and Tropical Atlantic and (c) historical malaria epidemic information obtained from the literature. Data analysed spanned 1950–2016. Individual analyses were undertaken over relevant time periods. The impact of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on seasonal and spatial patterns of rainfall and minimum temperature (Tmin) and maximum temperature (Tmax) was explored using NMA online Maprooms. The relationship of historic malaria epidemics (local or widespread) and concurrent ENSO phases (El Niño, Neutral, La Niña) and climate conditions (including drought) was explored in various ways. The relationships between SSTs (ENSO, Indian Ocean Dipole and Tropical Atlantic), rainfall, Tmin, Tmax and malaria epidemics in Amhara region were also explored. Results El Niño events are strongly related to higher Tmax across the country, drought in north-west Ethiopia during the July–August–September (JAS) rainy season and unusually heavy rain in the semi-arid south-east during the October–November–December (OND) season. La Niña conditions approximate the reverse. At the national level malaria epidemics mostly occur following the JAS rainy season and widespread epidemics are commonly associated with El Niño events when Tmax is high, and drought is common. In the Amhara region, malaria epidemics were not associated with ENSO, but with warm Tropical Atlantic SSTs and higher rainfall. Conclusion Malaria–climate relationships in Ethiopia are complex, unravelling them requires good climate and malaria data (as well as data on potential confounders) and an understanding of the regional and local climate system. The development of climate informed early warning systems must, therefore, target a specific region and season when predictability is high and where the climate drivers of malaria are sufficiently well understood. An El Niño event is likely in the coming years. Warming temperatures, political instability in some regions, and declining investments from international donors, implies an increasing risk of climate-related malaria epidemics.https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-023-04621-3Climate variability and changeAdaptationEthiopiaRainfall temperature ENSOENACTSMalaria |
| spellingShingle | Adugna Woyessa Asher Siebert Aisha Owusu Rémi Cousin Tufa Dinku Madeleine C. Thomson El Niño and other climatic drivers of epidemic malaria in Ethiopia: new tools for national health adaptation plans Malaria Journal Climate variability and change Adaptation Ethiopia Rainfall temperature ENSO ENACTS Malaria |
| title | El Niño and other climatic drivers of epidemic malaria in Ethiopia: new tools for national health adaptation plans |
| title_full | El Niño and other climatic drivers of epidemic malaria in Ethiopia: new tools for national health adaptation plans |
| title_fullStr | El Niño and other climatic drivers of epidemic malaria in Ethiopia: new tools for national health adaptation plans |
| title_full_unstemmed | El Niño and other climatic drivers of epidemic malaria in Ethiopia: new tools for national health adaptation plans |
| title_short | El Niño and other climatic drivers of epidemic malaria in Ethiopia: new tools for national health adaptation plans |
| title_sort | el nino and other climatic drivers of epidemic malaria in ethiopia new tools for national health adaptation plans |
| topic | Climate variability and change Adaptation Ethiopia Rainfall temperature ENSO ENACTS Malaria |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-023-04621-3 |
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