Twenty-first century climate extremes’ projections and their spatio-temporal trend analysis over Pakistan
Study region: The study area comprising Pakistan is distributed in five homogeneous climatic zones. Study focus: An integrated five step approach has been used for zonal climate extreme analysis. Seven out of thirteen most appropriate Global Climate Models (GCMs) were selected using Posterior Inclus...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2023-02-01
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| Series: | Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581822003081 |
| _version_ | 1797946265703546880 |
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| author | Firdos Khan Shaukat Ali Hamd Ullah Sher Muhammad |
| author_facet | Firdos Khan Shaukat Ali Hamd Ullah Sher Muhammad |
| author_sort | Firdos Khan |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Study region: The study area comprising Pakistan is distributed in five homogeneous climatic zones. Study focus: An integrated five step approach has been used for zonal climate extreme analysis. Seven out of thirteen most appropriate Global Climate Models (GCMs) were selected using Posterior Inclusion Probability in the Bayesian model averaging approach. The output of selected GCMs is then downscaled using statistical downscaling. Climate extremes are projected for the baseline and future time periods. Spatio-temporal trend and statistical significance analysis were performed for climate extremes. New hydrological insights for the region: Most of the climate extremes have heterogeneous trends for the precipitation under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The increasing trends in climate extreme are noted in the northern region, monsoon region, and south-west parts of Pakistan. Significantly increasing trend is observed in TMAXmean and TMINmean across the country. TN10P (Cool nights) and TX10P (Cool days) have decreasing trends in the future for most of the GCMs across the country for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. In contrast, TN90P (warm nights) and TX90P (warm days) have increasing trends for all GCMs in future under both scenarios. For RCP8.5, temperature extremes have significantly increased except TN10P and TX10P indicating significantly decreasing trends. There is notable increase in the number of summer days in future under both scenarios. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-10T21:08:17Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-f4cb3f4f2abf481a8d528bbe702194be |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2214-5818 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-10T21:08:17Z |
| publishDate | 2023-02-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies |
| spelling | doaj.art-f4cb3f4f2abf481a8d528bbe702194be2023-01-22T04:39:18ZengElsevierJournal of Hydrology: Regional Studies2214-58182023-02-0145101295Twenty-first century climate extremes’ projections and their spatio-temporal trend analysis over PakistanFirdos Khan0Shaukat Ali1Hamd Ullah2Sher Muhammad3School of Natural Sciences (SNS), National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST), H-12 Campus, 44000 Islamabad, PakistanGlobal Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC), Ministry of Climate Change, 44000 Islamabad, Pakistan; Corresponding author.Department of Mathematics and Statistics, International Islamic University, 44000 Islamabad, PakistanInternational Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, Kathmandu, NepalStudy region: The study area comprising Pakistan is distributed in five homogeneous climatic zones. Study focus: An integrated five step approach has been used for zonal climate extreme analysis. Seven out of thirteen most appropriate Global Climate Models (GCMs) were selected using Posterior Inclusion Probability in the Bayesian model averaging approach. The output of selected GCMs is then downscaled using statistical downscaling. Climate extremes are projected for the baseline and future time periods. Spatio-temporal trend and statistical significance analysis were performed for climate extremes. New hydrological insights for the region: Most of the climate extremes have heterogeneous trends for the precipitation under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The increasing trends in climate extreme are noted in the northern region, monsoon region, and south-west parts of Pakistan. Significantly increasing trend is observed in TMAXmean and TMINmean across the country. TN10P (Cool nights) and TX10P (Cool days) have decreasing trends in the future for most of the GCMs across the country for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. In contrast, TN90P (warm nights) and TX90P (warm days) have increasing trends for all GCMs in future under both scenarios. For RCP8.5, temperature extremes have significantly increased except TN10P and TX10P indicating significantly decreasing trends. There is notable increase in the number of summer days in future under both scenarios.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581822003081Climate extremes indicesHomogeneous climate zonesGlobal Climate modelsPakistanStatistical downscaling |
| spellingShingle | Firdos Khan Shaukat Ali Hamd Ullah Sher Muhammad Twenty-first century climate extremes’ projections and their spatio-temporal trend analysis over Pakistan Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies Climate extremes indices Homogeneous climate zones Global Climate models Pakistan Statistical downscaling |
| title | Twenty-first century climate extremes’ projections and their spatio-temporal trend analysis over Pakistan |
| title_full | Twenty-first century climate extremes’ projections and their spatio-temporal trend analysis over Pakistan |
| title_fullStr | Twenty-first century climate extremes’ projections and their spatio-temporal trend analysis over Pakistan |
| title_full_unstemmed | Twenty-first century climate extremes’ projections and their spatio-temporal trend analysis over Pakistan |
| title_short | Twenty-first century climate extremes’ projections and their spatio-temporal trend analysis over Pakistan |
| title_sort | twenty first century climate extremes projections and their spatio temporal trend analysis over pakistan |
| topic | Climate extremes indices Homogeneous climate zones Global Climate models Pakistan Statistical downscaling |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581822003081 |
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