Influenza associated excess mortality in Germany, 1985 – 2001
<p>Abstract</p> <p>Influenza-associated excess mortality is widely used to assess the severity of influenza epidemics. In Germany, however, it is not yet established as a routine component of influenza surveillance. We therefore applied a simple method based on the annual distribut...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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BMC
2005-06-01
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| Series: | Emerging Themes in Epidemiology |
| Online Access: | http://www.ete-online.com/content/2/1/6 |
| _version_ | 1818859322454573056 |
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| author | Haas Walter Buchholz Udo Zucs Phillip Uphoff Helmut |
| author_facet | Haas Walter Buchholz Udo Zucs Phillip Uphoff Helmut |
| author_sort | Haas Walter |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>Abstract</p> <p>Influenza-associated excess mortality is widely used to assess the severity of influenza epidemics. In Germany, however, it is not yet established as a routine component of influenza surveillance. We therefore applied a simple method based on the annual distribution of monthly relative mortality (relative mortality distribution method, RMDM) to a time-series of German monthly all-cause mortality data from 1985–2001 to estimate influenza-associated excess mortality. Results were compared to those obtained by cyclical regression.</p> <p>Both methods distinguished stronger from milder influenza seasons, but RMDM gave the better fit (R<sup>2 </sup>= 0.80). For the years after reunification, i.e. 1990/91 through 2000/01, RMDM yielded an average of 6900 (conservative estimate) to13600 influenza-asssociated excess deaths per season (crude estimate). The most severe epidemics occurred during subtype A/H3N2 seasons. While German all-cause mortality declined over the study period, the number of excess deaths displayed an upward trend, coinciding with an increase of the proportion of the elderly population.</p> |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-19T09:10:20Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-f4cfeee4c13d43cc8541fb7ea24b01da |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1742-7622 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-19T09:10:20Z |
| publishDate | 2005-06-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Emerging Themes in Epidemiology |
| spelling | doaj.art-f4cfeee4c13d43cc8541fb7ea24b01da2022-12-21T20:28:13ZengBMCEmerging Themes in Epidemiology1742-76222005-06-0121610.1186/1742-7622-2-6Influenza associated excess mortality in Germany, 1985 – 2001Haas WalterBuchholz UdoZucs PhillipUphoff Helmut<p>Abstract</p> <p>Influenza-associated excess mortality is widely used to assess the severity of influenza epidemics. In Germany, however, it is not yet established as a routine component of influenza surveillance. We therefore applied a simple method based on the annual distribution of monthly relative mortality (relative mortality distribution method, RMDM) to a time-series of German monthly all-cause mortality data from 1985–2001 to estimate influenza-associated excess mortality. Results were compared to those obtained by cyclical regression.</p> <p>Both methods distinguished stronger from milder influenza seasons, but RMDM gave the better fit (R<sup>2 </sup>= 0.80). For the years after reunification, i.e. 1990/91 through 2000/01, RMDM yielded an average of 6900 (conservative estimate) to13600 influenza-asssociated excess deaths per season (crude estimate). The most severe epidemics occurred during subtype A/H3N2 seasons. While German all-cause mortality declined over the study period, the number of excess deaths displayed an upward trend, coinciding with an increase of the proportion of the elderly population.</p>http://www.ete-online.com/content/2/1/6 |
| spellingShingle | Haas Walter Buchholz Udo Zucs Phillip Uphoff Helmut Influenza associated excess mortality in Germany, 1985 – 2001 Emerging Themes in Epidemiology |
| title | Influenza associated excess mortality in Germany, 1985 – 2001 |
| title_full | Influenza associated excess mortality in Germany, 1985 – 2001 |
| title_fullStr | Influenza associated excess mortality in Germany, 1985 – 2001 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Influenza associated excess mortality in Germany, 1985 – 2001 |
| title_short | Influenza associated excess mortality in Germany, 1985 – 2001 |
| title_sort | influenza associated excess mortality in germany 1985 2001 |
| url | http://www.ete-online.com/content/2/1/6 |
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