Long-term durability of immune responses to the BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 vaccines based on dosage, age and sex
Abstract The lipid nanoparticle (LNP)-formulated mRNA vaccines BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 are a widely adopted multi vaccination public health strategy to manage the COVID-19 pandemic. Clinical trial data has described the immunogenicity of the vaccine, albeit within a limited study time frame. Here, we...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2022-12-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-25134-0 |
| _version_ | 1811203875037773824 |
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| author | Chapin S. Korosec Suzan Farhang-Sardroodi David W. Dick Sameneh Gholami Mohammad Sajjad Ghaemi Iain R. Moyles Morgan Craig Hsu Kiang Ooi Jane M. Heffernan |
| author_facet | Chapin S. Korosec Suzan Farhang-Sardroodi David W. Dick Sameneh Gholami Mohammad Sajjad Ghaemi Iain R. Moyles Morgan Craig Hsu Kiang Ooi Jane M. Heffernan |
| author_sort | Chapin S. Korosec |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The lipid nanoparticle (LNP)-formulated mRNA vaccines BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 are a widely adopted multi vaccination public health strategy to manage the COVID-19 pandemic. Clinical trial data has described the immunogenicity of the vaccine, albeit within a limited study time frame. Here, we use a within-host mathematical model for LNP-formulated mRNA vaccines, informed by available clinical trial data from 2020 to September 2021, to project a longer term understanding of immunity as a function of vaccine type, dosage amount, age, and sex. We estimate that two standard doses of either mRNA-1273 or BNT162b2, with dosage times separated by the company-mandated intervals, results in individuals losing more than 99% humoral immunity relative to peak immunity by 8 months following the second dose. We predict that within an 8 month period following dose two (corresponding to the original CDC time-frame for administration of a third dose), there exists a period of time longer than 1 month where an individual has lost more than 99% humoral immunity relative to peak immunity, regardless of which vaccine was administered. We further find that age has a strong influence in maintaining humoral immunity; by 8 months following dose two we predict that individuals aged 18–55 have a four-fold humoral advantage compared to aged 56–70 and 70+ individuals. We find that sex has little effect on the immune response and long-term IgG counts. Finally, we find that humoral immunity generated from two low doses of mRNA-1273 decays at a substantially slower rate relative to peak immunity gained compared to two standard doses of either mRNA-1273 or BNT162b2. Our predictions highlight the importance of the recommended third booster dose in order to maintain elevated levels of antibodies. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-12T03:03:23Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-f5042b7bd18b4d8491feb4b99f91f30c |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-12T03:03:23Z |
| publishDate | 2022-12-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj.art-f5042b7bd18b4d8491feb4b99f91f30c2022-12-22T03:50:36ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222022-12-0112111510.1038/s41598-022-25134-0Long-term durability of immune responses to the BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 vaccines based on dosage, age and sexChapin S. Korosec0Suzan Farhang-Sardroodi1David W. Dick2Sameneh Gholami3Mohammad Sajjad Ghaemi4Iain R. Moyles5Morgan Craig6Hsu Kiang Ooi7Jane M. Heffernan8Modelling Infection and Immunity Lab, Mathematics and Statistics, York UniversityCentre for Disease Modelling, Mathematics and Statistics, York UniversityModelling Infection and Immunity Lab, Mathematics and Statistics, York UniversityModelling Infection and Immunity Lab, Mathematics and Statistics, York UniversityDigital Technologies Research Centre, National Research Council CanadaModelling Infection and Immunity Lab, Mathematics and Statistics, York UniversityDepartment of Mathematics and Statistics, Université de Montréal & Sainte-Justine University Hospital Research CentreDigital Technologies Research Centre, National Research Council CanadaModelling Infection and Immunity Lab, Mathematics and Statistics, York UniversityAbstract The lipid nanoparticle (LNP)-formulated mRNA vaccines BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 are a widely adopted multi vaccination public health strategy to manage the COVID-19 pandemic. Clinical trial data has described the immunogenicity of the vaccine, albeit within a limited study time frame. Here, we use a within-host mathematical model for LNP-formulated mRNA vaccines, informed by available clinical trial data from 2020 to September 2021, to project a longer term understanding of immunity as a function of vaccine type, dosage amount, age, and sex. We estimate that two standard doses of either mRNA-1273 or BNT162b2, with dosage times separated by the company-mandated intervals, results in individuals losing more than 99% humoral immunity relative to peak immunity by 8 months following the second dose. We predict that within an 8 month period following dose two (corresponding to the original CDC time-frame for administration of a third dose), there exists a period of time longer than 1 month where an individual has lost more than 99% humoral immunity relative to peak immunity, regardless of which vaccine was administered. We further find that age has a strong influence in maintaining humoral immunity; by 8 months following dose two we predict that individuals aged 18–55 have a four-fold humoral advantage compared to aged 56–70 and 70+ individuals. We find that sex has little effect on the immune response and long-term IgG counts. Finally, we find that humoral immunity generated from two low doses of mRNA-1273 decays at a substantially slower rate relative to peak immunity gained compared to two standard doses of either mRNA-1273 or BNT162b2. Our predictions highlight the importance of the recommended third booster dose in order to maintain elevated levels of antibodies.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-25134-0 |
| spellingShingle | Chapin S. Korosec Suzan Farhang-Sardroodi David W. Dick Sameneh Gholami Mohammad Sajjad Ghaemi Iain R. Moyles Morgan Craig Hsu Kiang Ooi Jane M. Heffernan Long-term durability of immune responses to the BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 vaccines based on dosage, age and sex Scientific Reports |
| title | Long-term durability of immune responses to the BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 vaccines based on dosage, age and sex |
| title_full | Long-term durability of immune responses to the BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 vaccines based on dosage, age and sex |
| title_fullStr | Long-term durability of immune responses to the BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 vaccines based on dosage, age and sex |
| title_full_unstemmed | Long-term durability of immune responses to the BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 vaccines based on dosage, age and sex |
| title_short | Long-term durability of immune responses to the BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 vaccines based on dosage, age and sex |
| title_sort | long term durability of immune responses to the bnt162b2 and mrna 1273 vaccines based on dosage age and sex |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-25134-0 |
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