Computation of Probabilities in Causal Models of History of Science
: The aim of this paper is to investigate the ascription of probabilities in a causal model of an episode in the history of science. The aim of such a quantitative approach is to allow the implementation of the causal model in a computer, to run simulations. As an example, we look at the beginning o...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina
2006-12-01
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| Series: | Principia: An International Journal of Epistemology |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.periodicos.ufsc.br/index.php/principia/article/view/14458/18021 |
| _version_ | 1811299126261841920 |
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| author | Osvaldo Pessoa Jr. |
| author_facet | Osvaldo Pessoa Jr. |
| author_sort | Osvaldo Pessoa Jr. |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | : The aim of this paper is to investigate the ascription of probabilities in a causal model of an episode in the history of science. The aim of such a quantitative approach is to allow the implementation of the causal model in a computer, to run simulations. As an example, we look at the beginning of the science of magnetism, “explaining” — in a probabilistic way, in terms of a single causal model — why the field advanced in China but not in Europe (the difference is due to different prior probabilities of certain cultural manifestations). Given the number of years between the occurrences of two causally connected advances X and Y, one proposes a criterion for stipulating the value pY=X of the conditional probability of an advance Y occurring, given X. Next, one must assume a specific form for the cumulative probability function pY=X(t), which we take to be the time integral of an exponential distribution function, as is done in physics of radioactive decay. Rules for calculating the cumulative functions for more than two events are mentioned, involving composition, disjunction and conjunction of causes. We also consider the problems involved in supposing that the appearance of events in time follows an exponential distribution, which are a consequence of the fact that a composition of causes does not follow an exponential distribution, but a “hypoexponential” one. We suggest that a gamma distribution function might more adequately represent the appearance of advances. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-13T06:30:34Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-f518443607f2441dafb8eb3c45eddad9 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1414-4247 1808-1711 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-13T06:30:34Z |
| publishDate | 2006-12-01 |
| publisher | Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Principia: An International Journal of Epistemology |
| spelling | doaj.art-f518443607f2441dafb8eb3c45eddad92022-12-22T02:58:12ZengUniversidade Federal de Santa CatarinaPrincipia: An International Journal of Epistemology1414-42471808-17112006-12-01102109124Computation of Probabilities in Causal Models of History of ScienceOsvaldo Pessoa Jr.: The aim of this paper is to investigate the ascription of probabilities in a causal model of an episode in the history of science. The aim of such a quantitative approach is to allow the implementation of the causal model in a computer, to run simulations. As an example, we look at the beginning of the science of magnetism, “explaining” — in a probabilistic way, in terms of a single causal model — why the field advanced in China but not in Europe (the difference is due to different prior probabilities of certain cultural manifestations). Given the number of years between the occurrences of two causally connected advances X and Y, one proposes a criterion for stipulating the value pY=X of the conditional probability of an advance Y occurring, given X. Next, one must assume a specific form for the cumulative probability function pY=X(t), which we take to be the time integral of an exponential distribution function, as is done in physics of radioactive decay. Rules for calculating the cumulative functions for more than two events are mentioned, involving composition, disjunction and conjunction of causes. We also consider the problems involved in supposing that the appearance of events in time follows an exponential distribution, which are a consequence of the fact that a composition of causes does not follow an exponential distribution, but a “hypoexponential” one. We suggest that a gamma distribution function might more adequately represent the appearance of advances.http://www.periodicos.ufsc.br/index.php/principia/article/view/14458/18021Philosophy of sciencehistory of ancient sciencecausal modelprobability |
| spellingShingle | Osvaldo Pessoa Jr. Computation of Probabilities in Causal Models of History of Science Principia: An International Journal of Epistemology Philosophy of science history of ancient science causal model probability |
| title | Computation of Probabilities in Causal Models of History of Science |
| title_full | Computation of Probabilities in Causal Models of History of Science |
| title_fullStr | Computation of Probabilities in Causal Models of History of Science |
| title_full_unstemmed | Computation of Probabilities in Causal Models of History of Science |
| title_short | Computation of Probabilities in Causal Models of History of Science |
| title_sort | computation of probabilities in causal models of history of science |
| topic | Philosophy of science history of ancient science causal model probability |
| url | http://www.periodicos.ufsc.br/index.php/principia/article/view/14458/18021 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT osvaldopessoajr computationofprobabilitiesincausalmodelsofhistoryofscience |