Modeling Deforestation in the State of Rondônia
ABSTRACT This study applied a deforestation model for the entire State of Rondônia assuming three scenarios of deforestation: business as usual, optimistic and pessimistic. Those scenarios were constructed for the time-period of 2012-2050 using the Dinamica EGO software. Rondônia deforestation datas...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Universidade Federal Rural do Rio de Janeiro
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| Series: | Floresta e Ambiente |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S2179-80872019000300144&lng=en&tlng=en |
| _version_ | 1818196040630665216 |
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| author | Valderli Jorge Piontekowski Fabiana Piontekowski Ribeiro Eraldo Aparecido Trondoli Matricardi Ilvan Medeiros Lustosa Junior Angela Pereira Bussinguer Alcides Gatto |
| author_facet | Valderli Jorge Piontekowski Fabiana Piontekowski Ribeiro Eraldo Aparecido Trondoli Matricardi Ilvan Medeiros Lustosa Junior Angela Pereira Bussinguer Alcides Gatto |
| author_sort | Valderli Jorge Piontekowski |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | ABSTRACT This study applied a deforestation model for the entire State of Rondônia assuming three scenarios of deforestation: business as usual, optimistic and pessimistic. Those scenarios were constructed for the time-period of 2012-2050 using the Dinamica EGO software. Rondônia deforestation dataset was provided by the Agência Ambiental do Estado de Rondônia (Rondônia State Environmental Agency) and was used as input of the deforestation modeling. Based on this study results, we estimated that 32%, 37% and 47% of Rondônia’s native forest could be fully deforested by 2050 assuming the optimistic, business as usual and pessimistic scenarios, respectively. Regardless of the chosen scenario, we expect that deforestation will be spatially concentrated in Northern Rondônia in the next decades. The greatest concern, however, could be the integrity of the protected areas assuming the business as usual and/or pessimistic scenario. In addition, we expect a substantial increase of the forest fragmentation by 2050. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-12T01:27:46Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-f5243fecf4c14bbe829bc4dc2010c566 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2179-8087 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-12T01:27:46Z |
| publisher | Universidade Federal Rural do Rio de Janeiro |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Floresta e Ambiente |
| spelling | doaj.art-f5243fecf4c14bbe829bc4dc2010c5662022-12-22T00:43:03ZengUniversidade Federal Rural do Rio de JaneiroFloresta e Ambiente2179-808726310.1590/2179-8087.044118S2179-80872019000300144Modeling Deforestation in the State of RondôniaValderli Jorge PiontekowskiFabiana Piontekowski RibeiroEraldo Aparecido Trondoli MatricardiIlvan Medeiros Lustosa JuniorAngela Pereira BussinguerAlcides GattoABSTRACT This study applied a deforestation model for the entire State of Rondônia assuming three scenarios of deforestation: business as usual, optimistic and pessimistic. Those scenarios were constructed for the time-period of 2012-2050 using the Dinamica EGO software. Rondônia deforestation dataset was provided by the Agência Ambiental do Estado de Rondônia (Rondônia State Environmental Agency) and was used as input of the deforestation modeling. Based on this study results, we estimated that 32%, 37% and 47% of Rondônia’s native forest could be fully deforested by 2050 assuming the optimistic, business as usual and pessimistic scenarios, respectively. Regardless of the chosen scenario, we expect that deforestation will be spatially concentrated in Northern Rondônia in the next decades. The greatest concern, however, could be the integrity of the protected areas assuming the business as usual and/or pessimistic scenario. In addition, we expect a substantial increase of the forest fragmentation by 2050.http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S2179-80872019000300144&lng=en&tlng=enland use changefragmentationdisorderly occupation |
| spellingShingle | Valderli Jorge Piontekowski Fabiana Piontekowski Ribeiro Eraldo Aparecido Trondoli Matricardi Ilvan Medeiros Lustosa Junior Angela Pereira Bussinguer Alcides Gatto Modeling Deforestation in the State of Rondônia Floresta e Ambiente land use change fragmentation disorderly occupation |
| title | Modeling Deforestation in the State of Rondônia |
| title_full | Modeling Deforestation in the State of Rondônia |
| title_fullStr | Modeling Deforestation in the State of Rondônia |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modeling Deforestation in the State of Rondônia |
| title_short | Modeling Deforestation in the State of Rondônia |
| title_sort | modeling deforestation in the state of rondonia |
| topic | land use change fragmentation disorderly occupation |
| url | http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S2179-80872019000300144&lng=en&tlng=en |
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