A sex-role-preference model for HIV transmission among men who have sex with men in China
<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Men who have sex with men (MSM) are much more likely to be infected with HIV than the general population. China has a sizable population of MSM, including gay, bisexual men, money boys and some rural workers. So reducing HIV infectio...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
BMC
2009-11-01
|
| Series: | BMC Public Health |
| _version_ | 1819026249552494592 |
|---|---|
| author | Ruan Yuhua Chen Li Wu Jianhong Lou Jie Shao Yiming |
| author_facet | Ruan Yuhua Chen Li Wu Jianhong Lou Jie Shao Yiming |
| author_sort | Ruan Yuhua |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Men who have sex with men (MSM) are much more likely to be infected with HIV than the general population. China has a sizable population of MSM, including gay, bisexual men, money boys and some rural workers. So reducing HIV infection in this population is an important component of the national HIV/AIDS prevention and control program.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We develop a mathematical model using a sex-role-preference framework to predict HIV infection in the MSM population and to evaluate different intervention strategies.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>An analytic formula for the basic reproduction ratio <it>R</it><sub>0 </sub>was obtained; this yields <it>R</it><sub>0 </sub>= 3.9296 in the current situation, so HIV will spread very fast in the MSM population if no intervention measure is implemented in a timely fashion. The persistence of HIV infection and the existence of disease equilibrium (or equilibria) are also shown. We utilized our model to simulate possible outcomes of antiretroviral therapy and vaccination for the MSM population. We compared the effects of these intervention measures under different assumptions about MSM behaviour. We also found that <it>R</it><sub>0 </sub>is a decreasing function of the death rate of HIV-infected individuals, following a power law at least asymptotically.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>HIV will spread very fast in the MSM population unless intervention measures are implemented urgently. Antiretroviral therapy can have substantial impact on the reduction of HIV among the MSM population, even if disinhibition is considered. The effect of protected sexual behaviour on controlling the epidemic in the MSM population largely depends on the sex-ratio preference of different sub-populations.</p> |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-21T05:23:35Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-f565eb1f97fc4a368dc1c59420935cdf |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1471-2458 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-21T05:23:35Z |
| publishDate | 2009-11-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | BMC Public Health |
| spelling | doaj.art-f565eb1f97fc4a368dc1c59420935cdf2022-12-21T19:14:46ZengBMCBMC Public Health1471-24582009-11-019Suppl 1S1010.1186/1471-2458-9-S1-S10A sex-role-preference model for HIV transmission among men who have sex with men in ChinaRuan YuhuaChen LiWu JianhongLou JieShao Yiming<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Men who have sex with men (MSM) are much more likely to be infected with HIV than the general population. China has a sizable population of MSM, including gay, bisexual men, money boys and some rural workers. So reducing HIV infection in this population is an important component of the national HIV/AIDS prevention and control program.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We develop a mathematical model using a sex-role-preference framework to predict HIV infection in the MSM population and to evaluate different intervention strategies.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>An analytic formula for the basic reproduction ratio <it>R</it><sub>0 </sub>was obtained; this yields <it>R</it><sub>0 </sub>= 3.9296 in the current situation, so HIV will spread very fast in the MSM population if no intervention measure is implemented in a timely fashion. The persistence of HIV infection and the existence of disease equilibrium (or equilibria) are also shown. We utilized our model to simulate possible outcomes of antiretroviral therapy and vaccination for the MSM population. We compared the effects of these intervention measures under different assumptions about MSM behaviour. We also found that <it>R</it><sub>0 </sub>is a decreasing function of the death rate of HIV-infected individuals, following a power law at least asymptotically.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>HIV will spread very fast in the MSM population unless intervention measures are implemented urgently. Antiretroviral therapy can have substantial impact on the reduction of HIV among the MSM population, even if disinhibition is considered. The effect of protected sexual behaviour on controlling the epidemic in the MSM population largely depends on the sex-ratio preference of different sub-populations.</p> |
| spellingShingle | Ruan Yuhua Chen Li Wu Jianhong Lou Jie Shao Yiming A sex-role-preference model for HIV transmission among men who have sex with men in China BMC Public Health |
| title | A sex-role-preference model for HIV transmission among men who have sex with men in China |
| title_full | A sex-role-preference model for HIV transmission among men who have sex with men in China |
| title_fullStr | A sex-role-preference model for HIV transmission among men who have sex with men in China |
| title_full_unstemmed | A sex-role-preference model for HIV transmission among men who have sex with men in China |
| title_short | A sex-role-preference model for HIV transmission among men who have sex with men in China |
| title_sort | sex role preference model for hiv transmission among men who have sex with men in china |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT ruanyuhua asexrolepreferencemodelforhivtransmissionamongmenwhohavesexwithmeninchina AT chenli asexrolepreferencemodelforhivtransmissionamongmenwhohavesexwithmeninchina AT wujianhong asexrolepreferencemodelforhivtransmissionamongmenwhohavesexwithmeninchina AT loujie asexrolepreferencemodelforhivtransmissionamongmenwhohavesexwithmeninchina AT shaoyiming asexrolepreferencemodelforhivtransmissionamongmenwhohavesexwithmeninchina AT ruanyuhua sexrolepreferencemodelforhivtransmissionamongmenwhohavesexwithmeninchina AT chenli sexrolepreferencemodelforhivtransmissionamongmenwhohavesexwithmeninchina AT wujianhong sexrolepreferencemodelforhivtransmissionamongmenwhohavesexwithmeninchina AT loujie sexrolepreferencemodelforhivtransmissionamongmenwhohavesexwithmeninchina AT shaoyiming sexrolepreferencemodelforhivtransmissionamongmenwhohavesexwithmeninchina |