Water consumption forecasting models – a case study in Trinidad (Trinidad and Tobago)
Trinidad has undergone rapid urbanization over the past few decades. Urbanization is accompanied with an increase in the country's demand for water. The forecasting of water demand can give rise to a better understanding of water consumption behaviour across all sectors of economy and therefore...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
IWA Publishing
2022-05-01
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| Series: | Water Supply |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://ws.iwaponline.com/content/22/5/5434 |
| _version_ | 1798038680331354112 |
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| author | Aruna Rajballie Vrijesh Tripathi Amarnath Chinchamee |
| author_facet | Aruna Rajballie Vrijesh Tripathi Amarnath Chinchamee |
| author_sort | Aruna Rajballie |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Trinidad has undergone rapid urbanization over the past few decades. Urbanization is accompanied with an increase in the country's demand for water. The forecasting of water demand can give rise to a better understanding of water consumption behaviour across all sectors of economy and therefore aid in effective water demand management. This study compares the application of the seasonal ARIMA, exponential state space (ETS) models, artificial neural network (ANN) models and hybrid combinations of them in developing forecast models for all categories of water consumption for Trinidad. The best forecasting model was selected using the forecasting assessment criterion of Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The forecasts were conducted until the end of December 2021. The results of the study show that hybrid model combinations are adequate in forecasting four out of the five categories and the single model, SARIMA, has been found suitable for the domestic category. Forecast plots revealed an increase in water demand until the end of 2021. The study also demonstrates the suitability of hybrid models for forecasting water demand for the island of Trinidad. HIGHLIGHTS
Development of monthly water demand forecasts.;
Development of water demand models for each category of water demand for an island in the Caribbean.;
Development of the first hybrid combination forecasting model for water consumption in Trinidad.; |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-11T21:43:30Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-f5d50ba924ee4a3a8bba473aeabde06c |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1606-9749 1607-0798 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-11T21:43:30Z |
| publishDate | 2022-05-01 |
| publisher | IWA Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Water Supply |
| spelling | doaj.art-f5d50ba924ee4a3a8bba473aeabde06c2022-12-22T04:01:30ZengIWA PublishingWater Supply1606-97491607-07982022-05-012255434544710.2166/ws.2022.147147Water consumption forecasting models – a case study in Trinidad (Trinidad and Tobago)Aruna Rajballie0Vrijesh Tripathi1Amarnath Chinchamee2 Project Management and Civil Infrastructure Systems, The University of Trinidad and Tobago, Port of Spain, Trinidad and Tobago Department of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of the West Indies, St. Augustine, Trinidad and Tobago Department of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of the West Indies, St. Augustine, Trinidad and Tobago Trinidad has undergone rapid urbanization over the past few decades. Urbanization is accompanied with an increase in the country's demand for water. The forecasting of water demand can give rise to a better understanding of water consumption behaviour across all sectors of economy and therefore aid in effective water demand management. This study compares the application of the seasonal ARIMA, exponential state space (ETS) models, artificial neural network (ANN) models and hybrid combinations of them in developing forecast models for all categories of water consumption for Trinidad. The best forecasting model was selected using the forecasting assessment criterion of Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The forecasts were conducted until the end of December 2021. The results of the study show that hybrid model combinations are adequate in forecasting four out of the five categories and the single model, SARIMA, has been found suitable for the domestic category. Forecast plots revealed an increase in water demand until the end of 2021. The study also demonstrates the suitability of hybrid models for forecasting water demand for the island of Trinidad. HIGHLIGHTS Development of monthly water demand forecasts.; Development of water demand models for each category of water demand for an island in the Caribbean.; Development of the first hybrid combination forecasting model for water consumption in Trinidad.;http://ws.iwaponline.com/content/22/5/5434exponential smoothinghybrid modelnnarsarimatrinidadwater consumption |
| spellingShingle | Aruna Rajballie Vrijesh Tripathi Amarnath Chinchamee Water consumption forecasting models – a case study in Trinidad (Trinidad and Tobago) Water Supply exponential smoothing hybrid model nnar sarima trinidad water consumption |
| title | Water consumption forecasting models – a case study in Trinidad (Trinidad and Tobago) |
| title_full | Water consumption forecasting models – a case study in Trinidad (Trinidad and Tobago) |
| title_fullStr | Water consumption forecasting models – a case study in Trinidad (Trinidad and Tobago) |
| title_full_unstemmed | Water consumption forecasting models – a case study in Trinidad (Trinidad and Tobago) |
| title_short | Water consumption forecasting models – a case study in Trinidad (Trinidad and Tobago) |
| title_sort | water consumption forecasting models a case study in trinidad trinidad and tobago |
| topic | exponential smoothing hybrid model nnar sarima trinidad water consumption |
| url | http://ws.iwaponline.com/content/22/5/5434 |
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