A Set-Membership approach to short-term electric load forecasting
This work presents a model for the short-term forecast of electric load, based on Set-Membership techniques. The model is formed by a periodic component and an adaptive non-linear autoregressive component. The identifications set of the non-linear model is increased at each estimation step. The mod...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | Spanish |
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Universitat Politecnica de Valencia
2019-09-01
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| Series: | Revista Iberoamericana de Automática e Informática Industrial RIAI |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://polipapers.upv.es/index.php/RIAI/article/view/9819 |
| _version_ | 1818565075718373376 |
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| author | Jimena Diaz Jose Vuelvas Fredy Ruiz Diego Patiño |
| author_facet | Jimena Diaz Jose Vuelvas Fredy Ruiz Diego Patiño |
| author_sort | Jimena Diaz |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This work presents a model for the short-term forecast of electric load, based on Set-Membership techniques. The model is formed by a periodic component and an adaptive non-linear autoregressive component. The identifications set of the non-linear model is increased at each estimation step. The model is evaluated in a case study with more than 13.000 samples of hourly sampled energy demand, registered during three years at a rural town in Colombia. The performance of the estimator is evaluated and confronted to a linear autoregressive model and a standard Set-Membership model with fixed identification set. Results show that the proposed estimator is able to predict demand with an RMS error below 2.5% for validation data, using just a 5% of the available dataset for the model identification. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-14T01:36:42Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-f5f7a99cf1584ef4b3ab24f01de6c9a8 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1697-7912 1697-7920 |
| language | Spanish |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-14T01:36:42Z |
| publishDate | 2019-09-01 |
| publisher | Universitat Politecnica de Valencia |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Revista Iberoamericana de Automática e Informática Industrial RIAI |
| spelling | doaj.art-f5f7a99cf1584ef4b3ab24f01de6c9a82022-12-21T23:21:52ZspaUniversitat Politecnica de ValenciaRevista Iberoamericana de Automática e Informática Industrial RIAI1697-79121697-79202019-09-0116446747910.4995/riai.2019.98197379A Set-Membership approach to short-term electric load forecastingJimena Diaz0Jose Vuelvas1Fredy Ruiz2Diego Patiño3Pontificia Universidad JaverianaPontificia Universidad JaverianaPontificia Universidad JaverianaPontificia Universidad JaverianaThis work presents a model for the short-term forecast of electric load, based on Set-Membership techniques. The model is formed by a periodic component and an adaptive non-linear autoregressive component. The identifications set of the non-linear model is increased at each estimation step. The model is evaluated in a case study with more than 13.000 samples of hourly sampled energy demand, registered during three years at a rural town in Colombia. The performance of the estimator is evaluated and confronted to a linear autoregressive model and a standard Set-Membership model with fixed identification set. Results show that the proposed estimator is able to predict demand with an RMS error below 2.5% for validation data, using just a 5% of the available dataset for the model identification.https://polipapers.upv.es/index.php/RIAI/article/view/9819gestión y demanda energéticafiltrado adaptativoidentificación de sistemas |
| spellingShingle | Jimena Diaz Jose Vuelvas Fredy Ruiz Diego Patiño A Set-Membership approach to short-term electric load forecasting Revista Iberoamericana de Automática e Informática Industrial RIAI gestión y demanda energética filtrado adaptativo identificación de sistemas |
| title | A Set-Membership approach to short-term electric load forecasting |
| title_full | A Set-Membership approach to short-term electric load forecasting |
| title_fullStr | A Set-Membership approach to short-term electric load forecasting |
| title_full_unstemmed | A Set-Membership approach to short-term electric load forecasting |
| title_short | A Set-Membership approach to short-term electric load forecasting |
| title_sort | set membership approach to short term electric load forecasting |
| topic | gestión y demanda energética filtrado adaptativo identificación de sistemas |
| url | https://polipapers.upv.es/index.php/RIAI/article/view/9819 |
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