Epidemiological Characterization of African Swine Fever Dynamics in Ukraine, 2012–2023
African swine fever (ASF) is a viral disease, endemic to Africa, that causes high mortality when introduced into domestic pig populations. Since the emergence of p72-genotype II African swine fever virus (ASFV) in Georgia in 2007, an ASF epidemic has been spreading across Europe and many countries i...
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MDPI AG
2023-06-01
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| Sarrera elektronikoa: | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-393X/11/7/1145 |
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| author | Maksym Bezymennyi Oleksandr Tarasov Ganna V. Kyivska Nataliia A. Mezhenska Svitlana Mandyhra Ganna Kovalenko Mykola Sushko Nataliia Hudz Serhii V. Skorokhod Roman Datsenko Larysa Muzykina Elaina Milton Maryna A. Sapachova Serhii Nychyk Ihor Halka Maciej Frant Falk Huettmann Devin M. Drown Anton Gerilovych Andrii A. Mezhenskyi Eric Bortz Christian E. Lange |
| author_facet | Maksym Bezymennyi Oleksandr Tarasov Ganna V. Kyivska Nataliia A. Mezhenska Svitlana Mandyhra Ganna Kovalenko Mykola Sushko Nataliia Hudz Serhii V. Skorokhod Roman Datsenko Larysa Muzykina Elaina Milton Maryna A. Sapachova Serhii Nychyk Ihor Halka Maciej Frant Falk Huettmann Devin M. Drown Anton Gerilovych Andrii A. Mezhenskyi Eric Bortz Christian E. Lange |
| author_sort | Maksym Bezymennyi |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | African swine fever (ASF) is a viral disease, endemic to Africa, that causes high mortality when introduced into domestic pig populations. Since the emergence of p72-genotype II African swine fever virus (ASFV) in Georgia in 2007, an ASF epidemic has been spreading across Europe and many countries in Asia. The epidemic first reached Ukraine in 2012. To better understand the dynamics of spread of ASF in Ukraine, we analyzed spatial and temporal outbreak data reported in Ukraine between 2012 and mid-2023. The highest numbers of outbreaks were reported in 2017 (N = 163) and 2018 (N = 145), with overall peak numbers of ASF outbreaks reported in August (domestic pigs) and January (wild boars). While cases were reported from most of Ukraine, we found a directional spread from the eastern and northern borders towards the western and southern regions of Ukraine. Many of the early outbreaks (before 2016) were adjacent to the border, which is again true for more recent outbreaks in wild boar, but not for recent outbreaks in domestic pigs. Outbreaks prior to 2016 also occurred predominantly in areas with a below average domestic pig density. This new analysis suggests that wild boars may have played an important role in the introduction and early spread of ASF in Ukraine. However, in later years, the dynamic suggests human activity as the predominant driver of spread and a separation of ASF epizootics between domestic pigs and in wild boars. The decline in outbreaks since 2019 suggests that the implemented mitigation strategies are effective, even though long-term control or eradication remain challenging and will require continued intensive surveillance of ASF outbreak patterns. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T00:35:44Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-f62dd960e1c44821b96ba1c49199ea9f |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2076-393X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T00:35:44Z |
| publishDate | 2023-06-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Vaccines |
| spelling | doaj.art-f62dd960e1c44821b96ba1c49199ea9f2023-11-18T21:40:16ZengMDPI AGVaccines2076-393X2023-06-01117114510.3390/vaccines11071145Epidemiological Characterization of African Swine Fever Dynamics in Ukraine, 2012–2023Maksym Bezymennyi0Oleksandr Tarasov1Ganna V. Kyivska2Nataliia A. Mezhenska3Svitlana Mandyhra4Ganna Kovalenko5Mykola Sushko6Nataliia Hudz7Serhii V. Skorokhod8Roman Datsenko9Larysa Muzykina10Elaina Milton11Maryna A. Sapachova12Serhii Nychyk13Ihor Halka14Maciej Frant15Falk Huettmann16Devin M. Drown17Anton Gerilovych18Andrii A. Mezhenskyi19Eric Bortz20Christian E. Lange21Institute of Veterinary Medicine (IVM), National Academy of Agrarian Sciences of Ukraine, 03151 Kyiv, UkraineInstitute of Veterinary Medicine (IVM), National Academy of Agrarian Sciences of Ukraine, 03151 Kyiv, UkraineState Scientific Research Institute of Laboratory Diagnostics and Veterinary and Sanitary Expertise (SSRILDVSE), 03151 Kyiv, UkraineState Scientific Research Institute of Laboratory Diagnostics and Veterinary and Sanitary Expertise (SSRILDVSE), 03151 Kyiv, UkraineInstitute of Veterinary Medicine (IVM), National Academy of Agrarian Sciences of Ukraine, 03151 Kyiv, UkraineInstitute of Veterinary Medicine (IVM), National Academy of Agrarian Sciences of Ukraine, 03151 Kyiv, UkraineState Scientific Research Institute of Laboratory Diagnostics and Veterinary and Sanitary Expertise (SSRILDVSE), 03151 Kyiv, UkraineInstitute of Veterinary Medicine (IVM), National Academy of Agrarian Sciences of Ukraine, 03151 Kyiv, UkraineState Scientific Research Institute of Laboratory Diagnostics and Veterinary and Sanitary Expertise (SSRILDVSE), 03151 Kyiv, UkraineState Scientific Research Institute of Laboratory Diagnostics and Veterinary and Sanitary Expertise (SSRILDVSE), 03151 Kyiv, UkraineInstitute of Veterinary Medicine (IVM), National Academy of Agrarian Sciences of Ukraine, 03151 Kyiv, UkraineDepartment of Biological Sciences, University of Alaska Anchorage, Anchorage, AK 99508, USAState Scientific Research Institute of Laboratory Diagnostics and Veterinary and Sanitary Expertise (SSRILDVSE), 03151 Kyiv, UkraineInstitute of Veterinary Medicine (IVM), National Academy of Agrarian Sciences of Ukraine, 03151 Kyiv, UkraineInstitute of Veterinary Medicine (IVM), National Academy of Agrarian Sciences of Ukraine, 03151 Kyiv, UkraineDepartment of Swine Diseases, National Veterinary Research Institute (NVRI), 24-100 Pulawy, PolandInstitute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USAInstitute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USAState Scientific Research Institute of Laboratory Diagnostics and Veterinary and Sanitary Expertise (SSRILDVSE), 03151 Kyiv, UkraineState Scientific Research Institute of Laboratory Diagnostics and Veterinary and Sanitary Expertise (SSRILDVSE), 03151 Kyiv, UkraineInstitute of Veterinary Medicine (IVM), National Academy of Agrarian Sciences of Ukraine, 03151 Kyiv, UkraineDepartment of Biological Sciences, University of Alaska Anchorage, Anchorage, AK 99508, USAAfrican swine fever (ASF) is a viral disease, endemic to Africa, that causes high mortality when introduced into domestic pig populations. Since the emergence of p72-genotype II African swine fever virus (ASFV) in Georgia in 2007, an ASF epidemic has been spreading across Europe and many countries in Asia. The epidemic first reached Ukraine in 2012. To better understand the dynamics of spread of ASF in Ukraine, we analyzed spatial and temporal outbreak data reported in Ukraine between 2012 and mid-2023. The highest numbers of outbreaks were reported in 2017 (N = 163) and 2018 (N = 145), with overall peak numbers of ASF outbreaks reported in August (domestic pigs) and January (wild boars). While cases were reported from most of Ukraine, we found a directional spread from the eastern and northern borders towards the western and southern regions of Ukraine. Many of the early outbreaks (before 2016) were adjacent to the border, which is again true for more recent outbreaks in wild boar, but not for recent outbreaks in domestic pigs. Outbreaks prior to 2016 also occurred predominantly in areas with a below average domestic pig density. This new analysis suggests that wild boars may have played an important role in the introduction and early spread of ASF in Ukraine. However, in later years, the dynamic suggests human activity as the predominant driver of spread and a separation of ASF epizootics between domestic pigs and in wild boars. The decline in outbreaks since 2019 suggests that the implemented mitigation strategies are effective, even though long-term control or eradication remain challenging and will require continued intensive surveillance of ASF outbreak patterns.https://www.mdpi.com/2076-393X/11/7/1145African swine feverAfrican swine fever virusASFASFVUkraineepidemiology |
| spellingShingle | Maksym Bezymennyi Oleksandr Tarasov Ganna V. Kyivska Nataliia A. Mezhenska Svitlana Mandyhra Ganna Kovalenko Mykola Sushko Nataliia Hudz Serhii V. Skorokhod Roman Datsenko Larysa Muzykina Elaina Milton Maryna A. Sapachova Serhii Nychyk Ihor Halka Maciej Frant Falk Huettmann Devin M. Drown Anton Gerilovych Andrii A. Mezhenskyi Eric Bortz Christian E. Lange Epidemiological Characterization of African Swine Fever Dynamics in Ukraine, 2012–2023 Vaccines African swine fever African swine fever virus ASF ASFV Ukraine epidemiology |
| title | Epidemiological Characterization of African Swine Fever Dynamics in Ukraine, 2012–2023 |
| title_full | Epidemiological Characterization of African Swine Fever Dynamics in Ukraine, 2012–2023 |
| title_fullStr | Epidemiological Characterization of African Swine Fever Dynamics in Ukraine, 2012–2023 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Epidemiological Characterization of African Swine Fever Dynamics in Ukraine, 2012–2023 |
| title_short | Epidemiological Characterization of African Swine Fever Dynamics in Ukraine, 2012–2023 |
| title_sort | epidemiological characterization of african swine fever dynamics in ukraine 2012 2023 |
| topic | African swine fever African swine fever virus ASF ASFV Ukraine epidemiology |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-393X/11/7/1145 |
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