Study on Dynamic Progression and Risk Assessment of Metabolic Syndrome Based on Multi-State Markov Model
Jaina Razbek, Yan Zhang, Wen-Jun Xia, Wan-Ting Xu, De-Yang Li, Zhe Yin, Ming-Qin Cao Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, College of Public Health, Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi, People’s Republic of ChinaCorrespondence: Ming-Qin Cao, Department of Epidemiology and Health Statisti...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Dove Medical Press
2022-08-01
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| Series: | Diabetes, Metabolic Syndrome and Obesity |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.dovepress.com/study-on-dynamic-progression-and-risk-assessment-of-metabolic-syndrome-peer-reviewed-fulltext-article-DMSO |
| _version_ | 1797762295567220736 |
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| author | Razbek J Zhang Y Xia WJ Xu WT Li DY Yin Z Cao MQ |
| author_facet | Razbek J Zhang Y Xia WJ Xu WT Li DY Yin Z Cao MQ |
| author_sort | Razbek J |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Jaina Razbek, Yan Zhang, Wen-Jun Xia, Wan-Ting Xu, De-Yang Li, Zhe Yin, Ming-Qin Cao Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, College of Public Health, Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi, People’s Republic of ChinaCorrespondence: Ming-Qin Cao, Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, College of Public Health, Xinjiang Medical University, No. 393 Xinyi Road, Urumqi, 830011, People’s Republic of China, Tel +86-13319912419, Email cmq66@126.comAim: Metabolic syndrome (MetS) coexists with the occurrence and even death of cardiovascular disease and diabetes mellitus. It is essential to study the factors in the dynamic progression of MetS in the interest of prevention and control.Purpose: The aim of this study was to analyze the dynamic progression of Mets and explore the potential factors influencing the progression or reversal of MetS.Patients and Methods: This study involved 5581 individuals from two waves of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study: 2011 and 2015. A multistate Markov model containing 4 states (free of metabolic disorder (FMD), mild metabolic disorder (MMD), severe metabolic disorder (SMD) and MetS) was adopted to study the dynamic progression of MetS and its influencing factors.Results: After follow-up, a total of 2862 cases (50.28% of the total number) had disease state transition. The intensity of transition from MetS to SMD is the same as that from SMD to MMD, and is greater than that from MMD to Mets (0.06 vs 0.05). For the MetS state, a mean of 1/0.08=12.5 years was spent in the MetS state before recovery. The exercise, smoke, drink, BMI level, hyperuricemia had statistically significant effects on progression of MetS status (P< 0.05). The obesity or overweight, little exercise, smoke, drink and hyperuricemia increased the risk of forward progression of MetS disease status. There were significant nonmodifiable (age, gender) and modifiable factors (exercise, drink, BMI level, or high HbA1c) associated with reversion of MetS state.Conclusion: The likelihood of progression from MMD to MetS is less likely than that of reversion from MetS to SMD and SMD to MMD. Old females were more resistant to recover from worse states than males. Prevention and intervention measures should be adopted early when MMD or SMD onset occurs.Keywords: metabolic syndrome, multi-state Markov model, forward progression, backward reversal |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T19:25:16Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-f632051a4d7f47e2b9ea9626aeb53af2 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1178-7007 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T19:25:16Z |
| publishDate | 2022-08-01 |
| publisher | Dove Medical Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Diabetes, Metabolic Syndrome and Obesity |
| spelling | doaj.art-f632051a4d7f47e2b9ea9626aeb53af22023-08-02T04:54:14ZengDove Medical PressDiabetes, Metabolic Syndrome and Obesity1178-70072022-08-01Volume 152497251077431Study on Dynamic Progression and Risk Assessment of Metabolic Syndrome Based on Multi-State Markov ModelRazbek JZhang YXia WJXu WTLi DYYin ZCao MQJaina Razbek, Yan Zhang, Wen-Jun Xia, Wan-Ting Xu, De-Yang Li, Zhe Yin, Ming-Qin Cao Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, College of Public Health, Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi, People’s Republic of ChinaCorrespondence: Ming-Qin Cao, Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, College of Public Health, Xinjiang Medical University, No. 393 Xinyi Road, Urumqi, 830011, People’s Republic of China, Tel +86-13319912419, Email cmq66@126.comAim: Metabolic syndrome (MetS) coexists with the occurrence and even death of cardiovascular disease and diabetes mellitus. It is essential to study the factors in the dynamic progression of MetS in the interest of prevention and control.Purpose: The aim of this study was to analyze the dynamic progression of Mets and explore the potential factors influencing the progression or reversal of MetS.Patients and Methods: This study involved 5581 individuals from two waves of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study: 2011 and 2015. A multistate Markov model containing 4 states (free of metabolic disorder (FMD), mild metabolic disorder (MMD), severe metabolic disorder (SMD) and MetS) was adopted to study the dynamic progression of MetS and its influencing factors.Results: After follow-up, a total of 2862 cases (50.28% of the total number) had disease state transition. The intensity of transition from MetS to SMD is the same as that from SMD to MMD, and is greater than that from MMD to Mets (0.06 vs 0.05). For the MetS state, a mean of 1/0.08=12.5 years was spent in the MetS state before recovery. The exercise, smoke, drink, BMI level, hyperuricemia had statistically significant effects on progression of MetS status (P< 0.05). The obesity or overweight, little exercise, smoke, drink and hyperuricemia increased the risk of forward progression of MetS disease status. There were significant nonmodifiable (age, gender) and modifiable factors (exercise, drink, BMI level, or high HbA1c) associated with reversion of MetS state.Conclusion: The likelihood of progression from MMD to MetS is less likely than that of reversion from MetS to SMD and SMD to MMD. Old females were more resistant to recover from worse states than males. Prevention and intervention measures should be adopted early when MMD or SMD onset occurs.Keywords: metabolic syndrome, multi-state Markov model, forward progression, backward reversalhttps://www.dovepress.com/study-on-dynamic-progression-and-risk-assessment-of-metabolic-syndrome-peer-reviewed-fulltext-article-DMSOmetabolic syndromemulti-state markov modelforward progressionbackward reversal |
| spellingShingle | Razbek J Zhang Y Xia WJ Xu WT Li DY Yin Z Cao MQ Study on Dynamic Progression and Risk Assessment of Metabolic Syndrome Based on Multi-State Markov Model Diabetes, Metabolic Syndrome and Obesity metabolic syndrome multi-state markov model forward progression backward reversal |
| title | Study on Dynamic Progression and Risk Assessment of Metabolic Syndrome Based on Multi-State Markov Model |
| title_full | Study on Dynamic Progression and Risk Assessment of Metabolic Syndrome Based on Multi-State Markov Model |
| title_fullStr | Study on Dynamic Progression and Risk Assessment of Metabolic Syndrome Based on Multi-State Markov Model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Study on Dynamic Progression and Risk Assessment of Metabolic Syndrome Based on Multi-State Markov Model |
| title_short | Study on Dynamic Progression and Risk Assessment of Metabolic Syndrome Based on Multi-State Markov Model |
| title_sort | study on dynamic progression and risk assessment of metabolic syndrome based on multi state markov model |
| topic | metabolic syndrome multi-state markov model forward progression backward reversal |
| url | https://www.dovepress.com/study-on-dynamic-progression-and-risk-assessment-of-metabolic-syndrome-peer-reviewed-fulltext-article-DMSO |
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