Beyond protected areas: The importance of mixed‐use landscapes for the conservation of Sumatran elephants (Elephas maximus sumatranus)
Abstract Elephants were once widely distributed across the Indonesian island of Sumatra but now exist in small, isolated populations. Using the best data available on elephant occurrence, we aimed to (a) predict potential habitat suitability for elephants (Elephas maximus sumatranus) across the isla...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2023-10-01
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| Series: | Ecology and Evolution |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.10560 |
| _version_ | 1827782326036201472 |
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| author | Muhammad Ali Imron Danielle M. Glass Muhammad Tafrichan Ramiro D. Crego Jared A. Stabach Peter Leimgruber |
| author_facet | Muhammad Ali Imron Danielle M. Glass Muhammad Tafrichan Ramiro D. Crego Jared A. Stabach Peter Leimgruber |
| author_sort | Muhammad Ali Imron |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Elephants were once widely distributed across the Indonesian island of Sumatra but now exist in small, isolated populations. Using the best data available on elephant occurrence, we aimed to (a) predict potential habitat suitability for elephants (Elephas maximus sumatranus) across the island of Sumatra and (b) model landscape connectivity among the extant elephant populations. We used direct sightings and indirect observations of elephant signs, as well as six remotely sensed proxies of surface ruggedness, vegetation productivity and structure, and human land use and disturbance, to model habitat suitability in a Google Earth Engine (GEE) environment. We validated the habitat suitability prediction using 10‐fold spatial block cross validation and by calculating the area under the precision‐recall curve (AUC‐PR), sensitivity, and specificity for each model iteration. We also used a geolocation dataset collected from global positioning system (GPS) collars fitted on elephants as an independent validation dataset. Models showed good predictive performance with a mean AUC‐PR of 0.73, sensitivity of 0.76, and specificity of 0.68. Greater than 83% of the independent GPS collar geolocations were located in predicted suitable habitat. We found human modification, surface ruggedness, and normalized difference vegetation index to be the most important variables for predicting suitable elephant habitat. Thirty‐two percent, or 135,646 km2, of Sumatra's land area was predicted to be suitable habitat, with 43 patches of suitable habitat located across Sumatra. Areas with high connectivity were concentrated in the Riau and North Sumatra provinces. Though our analysis highlights the need to improve the quality of data collected on Sumatran elephants, more suitable habitat remains on Sumatra than is used by known populations. Targeted habitat conservation, especially of the suitable habitat in and around the Lamno, Balai Raja, Tesso Tenggara, Tesso Utara, Bukit Tigapuluh, Seblat, Padang Sugihan, and Bukit Barisan Selatan ranges, may improve the long‐term viability of this critically endangered species. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T15:30:37Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-f641c6c1a4004c26add19ff8c3b352e9 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-7758 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T15:30:37Z |
| publishDate | 2023-10-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Ecology and Evolution |
| spelling | doaj.art-f641c6c1a4004c26add19ff8c3b352e92023-10-27T04:40:51ZengWileyEcology and Evolution2045-77582023-10-011310n/an/a10.1002/ece3.10560Beyond protected areas: The importance of mixed‐use landscapes for the conservation of Sumatran elephants (Elephas maximus sumatranus)Muhammad Ali Imron0Danielle M. Glass1Muhammad Tafrichan2Ramiro D. Crego3Jared A. Stabach4Peter Leimgruber5Universitas Gadjah Mada Yogyakarta IndonesiaSmithsonian National Zoo & Conservation Biology Institute Conservation Ecology Center Front Royal Virginia USAUniversitas Gadjah Mada Yogyakarta IndonesiaSmithsonian National Zoo & Conservation Biology Institute Conservation Ecology Center Front Royal Virginia USASmithsonian National Zoo & Conservation Biology Institute Conservation Ecology Center Front Royal Virginia USASmithsonian National Zoo & Conservation Biology Institute Conservation Ecology Center Front Royal Virginia USAAbstract Elephants were once widely distributed across the Indonesian island of Sumatra but now exist in small, isolated populations. Using the best data available on elephant occurrence, we aimed to (a) predict potential habitat suitability for elephants (Elephas maximus sumatranus) across the island of Sumatra and (b) model landscape connectivity among the extant elephant populations. We used direct sightings and indirect observations of elephant signs, as well as six remotely sensed proxies of surface ruggedness, vegetation productivity and structure, and human land use and disturbance, to model habitat suitability in a Google Earth Engine (GEE) environment. We validated the habitat suitability prediction using 10‐fold spatial block cross validation and by calculating the area under the precision‐recall curve (AUC‐PR), sensitivity, and specificity for each model iteration. We also used a geolocation dataset collected from global positioning system (GPS) collars fitted on elephants as an independent validation dataset. Models showed good predictive performance with a mean AUC‐PR of 0.73, sensitivity of 0.76, and specificity of 0.68. Greater than 83% of the independent GPS collar geolocations were located in predicted suitable habitat. We found human modification, surface ruggedness, and normalized difference vegetation index to be the most important variables for predicting suitable elephant habitat. Thirty‐two percent, or 135,646 km2, of Sumatra's land area was predicted to be suitable habitat, with 43 patches of suitable habitat located across Sumatra. Areas with high connectivity were concentrated in the Riau and North Sumatra provinces. Though our analysis highlights the need to improve the quality of data collected on Sumatran elephants, more suitable habitat remains on Sumatra than is used by known populations. Targeted habitat conservation, especially of the suitable habitat in and around the Lamno, Balai Raja, Tesso Tenggara, Tesso Utara, Bukit Tigapuluh, Seblat, Padang Sugihan, and Bukit Barisan Selatan ranges, may improve the long‐term viability of this critically endangered species.https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.10560connectivityElephas maximus sumatranushabitat suitabilityhuman activityspecies distribution modelingsumatra |
| spellingShingle | Muhammad Ali Imron Danielle M. Glass Muhammad Tafrichan Ramiro D. Crego Jared A. Stabach Peter Leimgruber Beyond protected areas: The importance of mixed‐use landscapes for the conservation of Sumatran elephants (Elephas maximus sumatranus) Ecology and Evolution connectivity Elephas maximus sumatranus habitat suitability human activity species distribution modeling sumatra |
| title | Beyond protected areas: The importance of mixed‐use landscapes for the conservation of Sumatran elephants (Elephas maximus sumatranus) |
| title_full | Beyond protected areas: The importance of mixed‐use landscapes for the conservation of Sumatran elephants (Elephas maximus sumatranus) |
| title_fullStr | Beyond protected areas: The importance of mixed‐use landscapes for the conservation of Sumatran elephants (Elephas maximus sumatranus) |
| title_full_unstemmed | Beyond protected areas: The importance of mixed‐use landscapes for the conservation of Sumatran elephants (Elephas maximus sumatranus) |
| title_short | Beyond protected areas: The importance of mixed‐use landscapes for the conservation of Sumatran elephants (Elephas maximus sumatranus) |
| title_sort | beyond protected areas the importance of mixed use landscapes for the conservation of sumatran elephants elephas maximus sumatranus |
| topic | connectivity Elephas maximus sumatranus habitat suitability human activity species distribution modeling sumatra |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.10560 |
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