Influence of high-latitude warming and land-use changes in the early 20th century northern Eurasian CO2 sink
While the global carbon budget (GCB) is relatively well constrained over the last decades of the 20th century [ 1 ], observations and reconstructions of atmospheric CO _2 growth rate present large discrepancies during the earlier periods [ 2 ]. The large uncertainty in GCB has been attributed to the...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2018-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aac4d3 |
| _version_ | 1797748314842595328 |
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| author | Ana Bastos Anna Peregon Érico A Gani Sergey Khudyaev Chao Yue Wei Li Célia M Gouveia Philippe Ciais |
| author_facet | Ana Bastos Anna Peregon Érico A Gani Sergey Khudyaev Chao Yue Wei Li Célia M Gouveia Philippe Ciais |
| author_sort | Ana Bastos |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | While the global carbon budget (GCB) is relatively well constrained over the last decades of the 20th century [ 1 ], observations and reconstructions of atmospheric CO _2 growth rate present large discrepancies during the earlier periods [ 2 ]. The large uncertainty in GCB has been attributed to the land biosphere, although it is not clear whether the gaps between observations and reconstructions are mainly because land-surface models (LSMs) underestimate inter-annual to decadal variability in natural ecosystems, or due to inaccuracies in land-use change reconstructions. As Eurasia encompasses about 15% of the terrestrial surface, 20% of the global soil organic carbon pool and constitutes a large CO _2 sink, we evaluate the potential contribution of natural and human-driven processes to induce large anomalies in the biospheric CO _2 fluxes in the early 20th century. We use an LSM specifically developed for high-latitudes, that correctly simulates Eurasian C-stocks and fluxes from observational records [ 3 ], in order to evaluate the sensitivity of the Eurasian sink to the strong high-latitude warming occurring between 1930 and 1950. We show that the LSM with improved high-latitude phenology, hydrology and soil processes, contrary to the group of LSMs in [ 2 ], is able to represent enhanced vegetation growth linked to boreal spring warming, consistent with tree-ring time-series [ 4 ]. By compiling a dataset of annual agricultural area in the Former Soviet Union that better reflects changes in cropland area linked with socio-economic fluctuations during the early 20th century, we show that land-abadonment during periods of crisis and war may result in reduced CO _2 emissions from land-use change (44%–78% lower) detectable at decadal time-scales. Our study points to key processes that may need to be improved in LSMs and LUC datasets in order to better represent decadal variability in the land CO _2 sink, and to better constrain the GCB during the pre-observational record. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:03:09Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-f64a949bb2c44ea9af3347220f4edf4e |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:03:09Z |
| publishDate | 2018-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-f64a949bb2c44ea9af3347220f4edf4e2023-08-09T14:32:59ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262018-01-0113606501410.1088/1748-9326/aac4d3Influence of high-latitude warming and land-use changes in the early 20th century northern Eurasian CO2 sinkAna Bastos0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7368-7806Anna Peregon1Érico A Gani2Sergey Khudyaev3Chao Yue4https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0026-237XWei Li5https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2543-2558Célia M Gouveia6https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3147-5696Philippe Ciais7https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8560-4943Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement , LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France; Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Department of Geography , Luisenstr. 37, 80333 Munich, Germany; Author to whom any correspondence should be addressed.Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement , LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France; Institute of Soil Science and Agrochemistry , Siberian Branch Russian Academy of Sciences (SB RAS), Novosibirsk, 630090, Pr. Akademika Lavrentyeva, 8/2, RussiaInstituto Dom Luiz , Universidade de Lisboa, PortugalInstitute of Soil Science and Agrochemistry , Siberian Branch Russian Academy of Sciences (SB RAS), Novosibirsk, 630090, Pr. Akademika Lavrentyeva, 8/2, RussiaLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement , LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, FranceLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement , LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, FranceInstituto Dom Luiz , Universidade de Lisboa, Portugal; Instituto Português do mar e da atmosfera (IPMA) , Lisboa, PortugalLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement , LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, FranceWhile the global carbon budget (GCB) is relatively well constrained over the last decades of the 20th century [ 1 ], observations and reconstructions of atmospheric CO _2 growth rate present large discrepancies during the earlier periods [ 2 ]. The large uncertainty in GCB has been attributed to the land biosphere, although it is not clear whether the gaps between observations and reconstructions are mainly because land-surface models (LSMs) underestimate inter-annual to decadal variability in natural ecosystems, or due to inaccuracies in land-use change reconstructions. As Eurasia encompasses about 15% of the terrestrial surface, 20% of the global soil organic carbon pool and constitutes a large CO _2 sink, we evaluate the potential contribution of natural and human-driven processes to induce large anomalies in the biospheric CO _2 fluxes in the early 20th century. We use an LSM specifically developed for high-latitudes, that correctly simulates Eurasian C-stocks and fluxes from observational records [ 3 ], in order to evaluate the sensitivity of the Eurasian sink to the strong high-latitude warming occurring between 1930 and 1950. We show that the LSM with improved high-latitude phenology, hydrology and soil processes, contrary to the group of LSMs in [ 2 ], is able to represent enhanced vegetation growth linked to boreal spring warming, consistent with tree-ring time-series [ 4 ]. By compiling a dataset of annual agricultural area in the Former Soviet Union that better reflects changes in cropland area linked with socio-economic fluctuations during the early 20th century, we show that land-abadonment during periods of crisis and war may result in reduced CO _2 emissions from land-use change (44%–78% lower) detectable at decadal time-scales. Our study points to key processes that may need to be improved in LSMs and LUC datasets in order to better represent decadal variability in the land CO _2 sink, and to better constrain the GCB during the pre-observational record.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aac4d3Eurasiacarbon-cycleland-use changeclimate variability |
| spellingShingle | Ana Bastos Anna Peregon Érico A Gani Sergey Khudyaev Chao Yue Wei Li Célia M Gouveia Philippe Ciais Influence of high-latitude warming and land-use changes in the early 20th century northern Eurasian CO2 sink Environmental Research Letters Eurasia carbon-cycle land-use change climate variability |
| title | Influence of high-latitude warming and land-use changes in the early 20th century northern Eurasian CO2 sink |
| title_full | Influence of high-latitude warming and land-use changes in the early 20th century northern Eurasian CO2 sink |
| title_fullStr | Influence of high-latitude warming and land-use changes in the early 20th century northern Eurasian CO2 sink |
| title_full_unstemmed | Influence of high-latitude warming and land-use changes in the early 20th century northern Eurasian CO2 sink |
| title_short | Influence of high-latitude warming and land-use changes in the early 20th century northern Eurasian CO2 sink |
| title_sort | influence of high latitude warming and land use changes in the early 20th century northern eurasian co2 sink |
| topic | Eurasia carbon-cycle land-use change climate variability |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aac4d3 |
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