Extreme climate projections under representative concentration pathways in the Lower Songkhram River Basin, Thailand
This paper aims to assess changes in the extreme climate indices of the Lower Songkhram River Basin of Thailand under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios. A linear scaling method was used to correct climate data bias in three Regional Climate Models (RCMs) under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8....
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2021-02-01
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| Series: | Heliyon |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405844021002516 |
| _version_ | 1818350757046386688 |
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| author | Sumana Shrestha Raywadee Roachanakanan |
| author_facet | Sumana Shrestha Raywadee Roachanakanan |
| author_sort | Sumana Shrestha |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This paper aims to assess changes in the extreme climate indices of the Lower Songkhram River Basin of Thailand under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios. A linear scaling method was used to correct climate data bias in three Regional Climate Models (RCMs) under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Thereafter, extreme climate indices related to temperature and rainfall were analysed for the wet and dry seasons in upstream and downstream areas of the basin. A total of 14 climate indices were analysed for three time periods: the 2030s (2020–2044), 2055s (2045–2069), and 2080s (2070–2094) and compared with the baseline climate from 1980‒2004. The results show that considerable variability is expected in the extreme climate of the basin in future. The average annual and monthly maximum and minimum temperature is projected to increase, with a lesser increase in the near future and higher in the far future. Heat events (TXx, TXn) are projected to increase while the cold events (TNx, TNn) are projected to decrease in both dry and wet seasons upstream and downstream of the basin. The future average annual rainfall in the basin is projected to decrease under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios for all three periods. However, the variability in average monthly rainfall is expected to increase in the dry season (Jan–May) and decrease in the wet (Aug–Dec). The most intense rainfall in one day (RX1Day) and five consecutive days (RX5Day) in the wet season is observed to increase in future, with a higher increase in the near future and a lower increase in the far future. The very heavy rainfall days (R20) (the number of days receiving more than 20 mm/day in the basin) are observed to decrease in both wet and dry seasons under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios in both locations. The results of this study will be helpful for the planning and management of natural resources as well as disaster risk reduction in the Lower Songkhram River Basin. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-13T18:26:55Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-f6a6467624bb44b6a3e4a5609f87d9fb |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2405-8440 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-13T18:26:55Z |
| publishDate | 2021-02-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Heliyon |
| spelling | doaj.art-f6a6467624bb44b6a3e4a5609f87d9fb2022-12-21T23:35:34ZengElsevierHeliyon2405-84402021-02-0172e06146Extreme climate projections under representative concentration pathways in the Lower Songkhram River Basin, ThailandSumana Shrestha0Raywadee Roachanakanan1Corresponding author.; Faculty of Environment and Resource Studies, Mahidol University, Salaya Campus, Nakhon Pathom, 73170, ThailandFaculty of Environment and Resource Studies, Mahidol University, Salaya Campus, Nakhon Pathom, 73170, ThailandThis paper aims to assess changes in the extreme climate indices of the Lower Songkhram River Basin of Thailand under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios. A linear scaling method was used to correct climate data bias in three Regional Climate Models (RCMs) under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Thereafter, extreme climate indices related to temperature and rainfall were analysed for the wet and dry seasons in upstream and downstream areas of the basin. A total of 14 climate indices were analysed for three time periods: the 2030s (2020–2044), 2055s (2045–2069), and 2080s (2070–2094) and compared with the baseline climate from 1980‒2004. The results show that considerable variability is expected in the extreme climate of the basin in future. The average annual and monthly maximum and minimum temperature is projected to increase, with a lesser increase in the near future and higher in the far future. Heat events (TXx, TXn) are projected to increase while the cold events (TNx, TNn) are projected to decrease in both dry and wet seasons upstream and downstream of the basin. The future average annual rainfall in the basin is projected to decrease under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios for all three periods. However, the variability in average monthly rainfall is expected to increase in the dry season (Jan–May) and decrease in the wet (Aug–Dec). The most intense rainfall in one day (RX1Day) and five consecutive days (RX5Day) in the wet season is observed to increase in future, with a higher increase in the near future and a lower increase in the far future. The very heavy rainfall days (R20) (the number of days receiving more than 20 mm/day in the basin) are observed to decrease in both wet and dry seasons under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios in both locations. The results of this study will be helpful for the planning and management of natural resources as well as disaster risk reduction in the Lower Songkhram River Basin.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405844021002516Extreme eventsRainfallTemperatureClimate changeThailand |
| spellingShingle | Sumana Shrestha Raywadee Roachanakanan Extreme climate projections under representative concentration pathways in the Lower Songkhram River Basin, Thailand Heliyon Extreme events Rainfall Temperature Climate change Thailand |
| title | Extreme climate projections under representative concentration pathways in the Lower Songkhram River Basin, Thailand |
| title_full | Extreme climate projections under representative concentration pathways in the Lower Songkhram River Basin, Thailand |
| title_fullStr | Extreme climate projections under representative concentration pathways in the Lower Songkhram River Basin, Thailand |
| title_full_unstemmed | Extreme climate projections under representative concentration pathways in the Lower Songkhram River Basin, Thailand |
| title_short | Extreme climate projections under representative concentration pathways in the Lower Songkhram River Basin, Thailand |
| title_sort | extreme climate projections under representative concentration pathways in the lower songkhram river basin thailand |
| topic | Extreme events Rainfall Temperature Climate change Thailand |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405844021002516 |
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