The relationship between sea surface temperature anomalies, wind and translation speed and North Atlantic tropical cyclone rainfall over ocean and land
There have been increasing losses from freshwater flooding associated with United States (US) landfalling hurricanes in recent years. This study analyses the relationship between sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA), wind and translation speed and North Atlantic tropical cyclone precipitation (T...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2023-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Communications |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/acb31c |
| _version_ | 1797844634954629120 |
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| author | Samantha Hallam Gerard D McCarthy Xiangbo Feng Simon A Josey Elizabeth Harris André Düsterhus Stephen Ogungbenro Joël J-M Hirschi |
| author_facet | Samantha Hallam Gerard D McCarthy Xiangbo Feng Simon A Josey Elizabeth Harris André Düsterhus Stephen Ogungbenro Joël J-M Hirschi |
| author_sort | Samantha Hallam |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | There have been increasing losses from freshwater flooding associated with United States (US) landfalling hurricanes in recent years. This study analyses the relationship between sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA), wind and translation speed and North Atlantic tropical cyclone precipitation (TCP) for the period 1998-2017. Based on our statistical analysis of observation data, for a 1 °C SST increase in the main development region (MDR), there is a 6% increase (not statistically significant) in the TCP rate (mmhr ^−1 ) over the Atlantic, which rises to over 40% over land (US states) and appears linked not only to the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship but also to the increase in tropical cyclone (TC) intensity associated with increasing SSTA. Total annual TCP is significantly correlated with the SST in the MDR. Over the Atlantic there is an increase of 116% and over land there is an increase of 140% in total TCP for a 1 °C rise in SST in the MDR. Again, this is linked to the increase in windspeed and the number of TC tracks which also rises with positive SSTAs in the MDR. Our analysis of landfalling TC tracks for nine US states provides a systematic review and highlights how TCP varies by US state. The highest number of landfalls per year are found in Florida, North Carolina and Texas. The median tropical cyclone translation speed is 20.3kmhr ^−1 , although this falls to 16.5 kmhr ^−1 over land and there is a latitudinal dependence on translation speed. Overall, we find a different TCP response to rising SST over the ocean and land, with the response over land over four times more than the Clausius-Clapeyron rate. The links between SSTA in the MDR and both TCP rate and annual total TCP provide useful insights for seasonal to decadal US flood prediction from TCs. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-09T17:25:30Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-f6a6f33196e147d4818a9d04060af46c |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2515-7620 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-09T17:25:30Z |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Communications |
| spelling | doaj.art-f6a6f33196e147d4818a9d04060af46c2023-04-18T14:10:19ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Communications2515-76202023-01-015202500710.1088/2515-7620/acb31cThe relationship between sea surface temperature anomalies, wind and translation speed and North Atlantic tropical cyclone rainfall over ocean and landSamantha Hallam0https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3418-2554Gerard D McCarthy1https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2363-0561Xiangbo Feng2https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4143-107XSimon A Josey3https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1683-8831Elizabeth Harris4https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0274-560XAndré Düsterhus5https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2192-175XStephen Ogungbenro6https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9959-4512Joël J-M Hirschi7https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1481-3697Irish Climate Analysis Research Units, Maynooth University , Ireland; National Oceanography Centre, European Way, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, United Kingdom; University of Southampton, National Oceanography Centre, European Way, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, United KingdomIrish Climate Analysis Research Units, Maynooth University , IrelandNational Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading , Reading, United KingdomNational Oceanography Centre, European Way, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, United KingdomUniversity of Southampton, National Oceanography Centre, European Way, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, United Kingdom; Ariel Re Bda Limited, 29 Richmond Road, Pembroke, HM 08, BermudaIrish Climate Analysis Research Units, Maynooth University , IrelandIrish Climate Analysis Research Units, Maynooth University , IrelandNational Oceanography Centre, European Way, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, United KingdomThere have been increasing losses from freshwater flooding associated with United States (US) landfalling hurricanes in recent years. This study analyses the relationship between sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA), wind and translation speed and North Atlantic tropical cyclone precipitation (TCP) for the period 1998-2017. Based on our statistical analysis of observation data, for a 1 °C SST increase in the main development region (MDR), there is a 6% increase (not statistically significant) in the TCP rate (mmhr ^−1 ) over the Atlantic, which rises to over 40% over land (US states) and appears linked not only to the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship but also to the increase in tropical cyclone (TC) intensity associated with increasing SSTA. Total annual TCP is significantly correlated with the SST in the MDR. Over the Atlantic there is an increase of 116% and over land there is an increase of 140% in total TCP for a 1 °C rise in SST in the MDR. Again, this is linked to the increase in windspeed and the number of TC tracks which also rises with positive SSTAs in the MDR. Our analysis of landfalling TC tracks for nine US states provides a systematic review and highlights how TCP varies by US state. The highest number of landfalls per year are found in Florida, North Carolina and Texas. The median tropical cyclone translation speed is 20.3kmhr ^−1 , although this falls to 16.5 kmhr ^−1 over land and there is a latitudinal dependence on translation speed. Overall, we find a different TCP response to rising SST over the ocean and land, with the response over land over four times more than the Clausius-Clapeyron rate. The links between SSTA in the MDR and both TCP rate and annual total TCP provide useful insights for seasonal to decadal US flood prediction from TCs.https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/acb31ctropical cyclone precipitationNorth Atlanticsea surface temperaturetropical cyclone translation speed |
| spellingShingle | Samantha Hallam Gerard D McCarthy Xiangbo Feng Simon A Josey Elizabeth Harris André Düsterhus Stephen Ogungbenro Joël J-M Hirschi The relationship between sea surface temperature anomalies, wind and translation speed and North Atlantic tropical cyclone rainfall over ocean and land Environmental Research Communications tropical cyclone precipitation North Atlantic sea surface temperature tropical cyclone translation speed |
| title | The relationship between sea surface temperature anomalies, wind and translation speed and North Atlantic tropical cyclone rainfall over ocean and land |
| title_full | The relationship between sea surface temperature anomalies, wind and translation speed and North Atlantic tropical cyclone rainfall over ocean and land |
| title_fullStr | The relationship between sea surface temperature anomalies, wind and translation speed and North Atlantic tropical cyclone rainfall over ocean and land |
| title_full_unstemmed | The relationship between sea surface temperature anomalies, wind and translation speed and North Atlantic tropical cyclone rainfall over ocean and land |
| title_short | The relationship between sea surface temperature anomalies, wind and translation speed and North Atlantic tropical cyclone rainfall over ocean and land |
| title_sort | relationship between sea surface temperature anomalies wind and translation speed and north atlantic tropical cyclone rainfall over ocean and land |
| topic | tropical cyclone precipitation North Atlantic sea surface temperature tropical cyclone translation speed |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/acb31c |
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