Factors influencing spontaneous hypothermia after emergency trauma and the construction of a predictive model
This study aimed to investigate spontaneous hypothermia among emergency trauma patients and develop a predictive model. A cohort of 162 emergency trauma patients was categorized into hypothermic (n = 61) and control (n = 101) groups, with trauma severity assessed using the modified Glasgow Coma Scal...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
De Gruyter
2024-04-01
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| Series: | Open Life Sciences |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1515/biol-2022-0862 |
| _version_ | 1797197640003223552 |
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| author | Feng Xia Zhu Fangxiang Qiao Anhua Li Wenfang Jiang Ying Han Zengtao Dong Lan |
| author_facet | Feng Xia Zhu Fangxiang Qiao Anhua Li Wenfang Jiang Ying Han Zengtao Dong Lan |
| author_sort | Feng Xia |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This study aimed to investigate spontaneous hypothermia among emergency trauma patients and develop a predictive model. A cohort of 162 emergency trauma patients was categorized into hypothermic (n = 61) and control (n = 101) groups, with trauma severity assessed using the modified Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS). Univariate analysis revealed significant differences between the groups in trauma severity, posture, garment wetness, warming measures, pre-hospital fluid resuscitation, and modified GCS scores (P < 0.05). The hypothermic group exhibited lower prothrombin time compared to the control group (P < 0.05). A logistic regression model was constructed, expressed as Y = 25.76 − 1.030X
1 + 0.725X
2 + 0.922X
3 − 0.750X
4 − 0.57X
6, and its fit was evaluated using the Hosmer–Lemeshow test. The receiver operating characteristic curve demonstrated an area under the curve of 0.871, with 81.2% sensitivity and 79.5% specificity. The Youden index identified the optimal predictive cut-off at its highest (0.58). Validation results included 86.21% sensitivity, 82.93% specificity, and 84.29% accuracy. Risk factors for spontaneous hypothermia after emergency trauma encompassed trauma severity, posture during consultation, clothing dampness upon admission, warming measures during transfer, pre-hospital fluid resuscitation, and modified GCS scores. The risk prediction model demonstrated high accuracy, enabling effective assessment of spontaneous hypothermia risk in emergency trauma patients and facilitating preventive measures. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-24T06:47:10Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-f6ade6d2ddd946c4b47ea67eaaaef74e |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2391-5412 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-24T06:47:10Z |
| publishDate | 2024-04-01 |
| publisher | De Gruyter |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Open Life Sciences |
| spelling | doaj.art-f6ade6d2ddd946c4b47ea67eaaaef74e2024-04-22T19:39:30ZengDe GruyterOpen Life Sciences2391-54122024-04-01191224710.1515/biol-2022-0862Factors influencing spontaneous hypothermia after emergency trauma and the construction of a predictive modelFeng Xia0Zhu Fangxiang1Qiao Anhua2Li Wenfang3Jiang Ying4Han Zengtao5Dong Lan6Emergency Department, Shanghai Chang Zheng Hospital, Shanghai200003, ChinaNursing Department, Shanghai Chang Zheng Hospital, Shanghai200003, ChinaNursing Department, Shanghai Chang Zheng Hospital, Shanghai200003, ChinaEmergency Department, Shanghai Chang Zheng Hospital, Shanghai200003, ChinaCerebrovascular Diseases Center, Department of Neurosurgery Renji Hospital, Shanghai201112, ChinaEmergency Department, Shanghai Chang Zheng Hospital, Shanghai200003, ChinaEmergency Department, Shanghai Chang Zheng Hospital, Shanghai200003, ChinaThis study aimed to investigate spontaneous hypothermia among emergency trauma patients and develop a predictive model. A cohort of 162 emergency trauma patients was categorized into hypothermic (n = 61) and control (n = 101) groups, with trauma severity assessed using the modified Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS). Univariate analysis revealed significant differences between the groups in trauma severity, posture, garment wetness, warming measures, pre-hospital fluid resuscitation, and modified GCS scores (P < 0.05). The hypothermic group exhibited lower prothrombin time compared to the control group (P < 0.05). A logistic regression model was constructed, expressed as Y = 25.76 − 1.030X 1 + 0.725X 2 + 0.922X 3 − 0.750X 4 − 0.57X 6, and its fit was evaluated using the Hosmer–Lemeshow test. The receiver operating characteristic curve demonstrated an area under the curve of 0.871, with 81.2% sensitivity and 79.5% specificity. The Youden index identified the optimal predictive cut-off at its highest (0.58). Validation results included 86.21% sensitivity, 82.93% specificity, and 84.29% accuracy. Risk factors for spontaneous hypothermia after emergency trauma encompassed trauma severity, posture during consultation, clothing dampness upon admission, warming measures during transfer, pre-hospital fluid resuscitation, and modified GCS scores. The risk prediction model demonstrated high accuracy, enabling effective assessment of spontaneous hypothermia risk in emergency trauma patients and facilitating preventive measures.https://doi.org/10.1515/biol-2022-0862emergency traumaspontaneous hypothermiainfluencing factorspredictive model |
| spellingShingle | Feng Xia Zhu Fangxiang Qiao Anhua Li Wenfang Jiang Ying Han Zengtao Dong Lan Factors influencing spontaneous hypothermia after emergency trauma and the construction of a predictive model Open Life Sciences emergency trauma spontaneous hypothermia influencing factors predictive model |
| title | Factors influencing spontaneous hypothermia after emergency trauma and the construction of a predictive model |
| title_full | Factors influencing spontaneous hypothermia after emergency trauma and the construction of a predictive model |
| title_fullStr | Factors influencing spontaneous hypothermia after emergency trauma and the construction of a predictive model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Factors influencing spontaneous hypothermia after emergency trauma and the construction of a predictive model |
| title_short | Factors influencing spontaneous hypothermia after emergency trauma and the construction of a predictive model |
| title_sort | factors influencing spontaneous hypothermia after emergency trauma and the construction of a predictive model |
| topic | emergency trauma spontaneous hypothermia influencing factors predictive model |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1515/biol-2022-0862 |
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