The airborne contagiousness of respiratory viruses: A comparative analysis and implications for mitigation
The infectious emission rate is a fundamental input parameter for airborne transmission risk assessment, but data are limited due to reliance on estimates from chance superspreading events. This study assesses the strength of a predictive estimation approach developed by the authors for SARS-CoV-2 a...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2022-11-01
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| Series: | Geoscience Frontiers |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674987121001493 |
| _version_ | 1797705821408198656 |
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| author | Alex Mikszewski Luca Stabile Giorgio Buonanno Lidia Morawska |
| author_facet | Alex Mikszewski Luca Stabile Giorgio Buonanno Lidia Morawska |
| author_sort | Alex Mikszewski |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The infectious emission rate is a fundamental input parameter for airborne transmission risk assessment, but data are limited due to reliance on estimates from chance superspreading events. This study assesses the strength of a predictive estimation approach developed by the authors for SARS-CoV-2 and uses novel estimates to compare the contagiousness of respiratory pathogens. We applied the approach to SARS-CoV-1, SARS-CoV-2, MERS, measles virus, adenovirus, rhinovirus, coxsackievirus, seasonal influenza virus and Mycobacterium tuberculosis (TB) and compared quanta emission rate (ERq) estimates to literature values. We calculated infection risk in a prototypical classroom and barracks to assess the relative ability of ventilation to mitigate airborne transmission. Our median standing and speaking ERq estimate for SARS-CoV-2 (2.7 quanta h−1) is similar to active, untreated TB (3.1 quanta h−1), higher than seasonal influenza (0.17 quanta h−1), and lower than measles virus (15 quanta h−1). We calculated event reproduction numbers above 1 for SARS-CoV-2, measles virus, and untreated TB in both the classroom and barracks for an activity level of standing and speaking at low, medium and high ventilation rates of 2.3, 6.6 and 14 L per second per person (L s–1 p–1), respectively. Our predictive ERq estimates are consistent with the range of values reported over decades of research. In congregate settings, current ventilation standards are unlikely to control the spread of viruses with upper quartile ERq values above 10 quanta h−1, such as SARS-CoV-2, indicating the need for additional control measures. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T05:42:05Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-f6df377b187b4ed790167cde30fbfbcd |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1674-9871 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T05:42:05Z |
| publishDate | 2022-11-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geoscience Frontiers |
| spelling | doaj.art-f6df377b187b4ed790167cde30fbfbcd2023-09-03T05:57:17ZengElsevierGeoscience Frontiers1674-98712022-11-01136101285The airborne contagiousness of respiratory viruses: A comparative analysis and implications for mitigationAlex Mikszewski0Luca Stabile1Giorgio Buonanno2Lidia Morawska3International Laboratory for Air Quality and Health, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia; CIUS Building Performance Lab, The City University of New York, New York, NY, USADepartment of Civil and Mechanical Engineering, University of Cassino and Southern Lazio, Cassino, FR, ItalyInternational Laboratory for Air Quality and Health, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia; Department of Civil and Mechanical Engineering, University of Cassino and Southern Lazio, Cassino, FR, ItalyInternational Laboratory for Air Quality and Health, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia; Global Centre for Clean Air Research (GCARE), Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and Physical Sciences, University of Surrey, Guildford GU2 7XH, United Kingdom; Corresponding author at: International Laboratory for Air Quality and Health, Queensland University of Technology, 2 George Street, Brisbane, Queensland 4001, Australia.The infectious emission rate is a fundamental input parameter for airborne transmission risk assessment, but data are limited due to reliance on estimates from chance superspreading events. This study assesses the strength of a predictive estimation approach developed by the authors for SARS-CoV-2 and uses novel estimates to compare the contagiousness of respiratory pathogens. We applied the approach to SARS-CoV-1, SARS-CoV-2, MERS, measles virus, adenovirus, rhinovirus, coxsackievirus, seasonal influenza virus and Mycobacterium tuberculosis (TB) and compared quanta emission rate (ERq) estimates to literature values. We calculated infection risk in a prototypical classroom and barracks to assess the relative ability of ventilation to mitigate airborne transmission. Our median standing and speaking ERq estimate for SARS-CoV-2 (2.7 quanta h−1) is similar to active, untreated TB (3.1 quanta h−1), higher than seasonal influenza (0.17 quanta h−1), and lower than measles virus (15 quanta h−1). We calculated event reproduction numbers above 1 for SARS-CoV-2, measles virus, and untreated TB in both the classroom and barracks for an activity level of standing and speaking at low, medium and high ventilation rates of 2.3, 6.6 and 14 L per second per person (L s–1 p–1), respectively. Our predictive ERq estimates are consistent with the range of values reported over decades of research. In congregate settings, current ventilation standards are unlikely to control the spread of viruses with upper quartile ERq values above 10 quanta h−1, such as SARS-CoV-2, indicating the need for additional control measures.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674987121001493SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) airborne transmissionQuanta emission rateVentilationMeaslesInfluenza |
| spellingShingle | Alex Mikszewski Luca Stabile Giorgio Buonanno Lidia Morawska The airborne contagiousness of respiratory viruses: A comparative analysis and implications for mitigation Geoscience Frontiers SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) airborne transmission Quanta emission rate Ventilation Measles Influenza |
| title | The airborne contagiousness of respiratory viruses: A comparative analysis and implications for mitigation |
| title_full | The airborne contagiousness of respiratory viruses: A comparative analysis and implications for mitigation |
| title_fullStr | The airborne contagiousness of respiratory viruses: A comparative analysis and implications for mitigation |
| title_full_unstemmed | The airborne contagiousness of respiratory viruses: A comparative analysis and implications for mitigation |
| title_short | The airborne contagiousness of respiratory viruses: A comparative analysis and implications for mitigation |
| title_sort | airborne contagiousness of respiratory viruses a comparative analysis and implications for mitigation |
| topic | SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) airborne transmission Quanta emission rate Ventilation Measles Influenza |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674987121001493 |
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