Future changes in spring wheat yield in the European Russia as inferred from a large ensemble of high-resolution climate projections
An assessment is carried out of future changes in the agroclimatic conditions and crop productivity of spring wheat across the major grain-growing regions of European Russia. Calculations are conducted using a crop model driven by high-resolution, multiple realization regional climate change simulat...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2019-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf8be |
| _version_ | 1797748101058920448 |
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| author | Vera Pavlova Igor Shkolnik Anastasia Pikaleva Sergey Efimov Anna Karachenkova Vladimir Kattsov |
| author_facet | Vera Pavlova Igor Shkolnik Anastasia Pikaleva Sergey Efimov Anna Karachenkova Vladimir Kattsov |
| author_sort | Vera Pavlova |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | An assessment is carried out of future changes in the agroclimatic conditions and crop productivity of spring wheat across the major grain-growing regions of European Russia. Calculations are conducted using a crop model driven by high-resolution, multiple realization regional climate change simulations under the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario. It has been shown that this scenario can lead to a future decrease in the yield of spring wheat by 9.1 ± 2.3% (2030–2039), 10.3 ± 3.2% (2050–2059), and 18.9 ± 2.8% (2090–2099) as compared with the yield at the end of XX century. In the southeastern part of the region, where there are major spring wheat areas, the projected yield change is expected to be –6.7 ± 3.0% by 2050–2059 and −21.5 ± 3.1% by 2090–2099. Fertile lands in the Central Black-Earth region (southwest of Moscow) will suffer even more due to a significant increase in the aridity and decrease of the growing season. There the projected drop in yield is simulated to be 15.8 ± 5.1% by 2050–2059 and 32.9 ± 3.4% by 2090–2099. However, the major losses in total production (gross yield) are expected to occur in the Privolzhsky Federal District where the spring wheat areas amount to 87% of the total cultivated area in the region. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:00:09Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-f6e76a3f814b4afba5f999074d3d65bc |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:00:09Z |
| publishDate | 2019-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-f6e76a3f814b4afba5f999074d3d65bc2023-08-09T14:41:42ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262019-01-0114303401010.1088/1748-9326/aaf8beFuture changes in spring wheat yield in the European Russia as inferred from a large ensemble of high-resolution climate projectionsVera Pavlova0Igor Shkolnik1https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7779-0501Anastasia Pikaleva2Sergey Efimov3Anna Karachenkova4Vladimir Kattsov5National Research Institute of Agricultural Meteorology (NRIAM), Obninsk, Russia; Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory (MGO), St. Petersburg, RussiaVoeikov Main Geophysical Observatory (MGO), St. Petersburg, RussiaVoeikov Main Geophysical Observatory (MGO), St. Petersburg, RussiaVoeikov Main Geophysical Observatory (MGO), St. Petersburg, RussiaNational Research Institute of Agricultural Meteorology (NRIAM), Obninsk, RussiaVoeikov Main Geophysical Observatory (MGO), St. Petersburg, RussiaAn assessment is carried out of future changes in the agroclimatic conditions and crop productivity of spring wheat across the major grain-growing regions of European Russia. Calculations are conducted using a crop model driven by high-resolution, multiple realization regional climate change simulations under the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario. It has been shown that this scenario can lead to a future decrease in the yield of spring wheat by 9.1 ± 2.3% (2030–2039), 10.3 ± 3.2% (2050–2059), and 18.9 ± 2.8% (2090–2099) as compared with the yield at the end of XX century. In the southeastern part of the region, where there are major spring wheat areas, the projected yield change is expected to be –6.7 ± 3.0% by 2050–2059 and −21.5 ± 3.1% by 2090–2099. Fertile lands in the Central Black-Earth region (southwest of Moscow) will suffer even more due to a significant increase in the aridity and decrease of the growing season. There the projected drop in yield is simulated to be 15.8 ± 5.1% by 2050–2059 and 32.9 ± 3.4% by 2090–2099. However, the major losses in total production (gross yield) are expected to occur in the Privolzhsky Federal District where the spring wheat areas amount to 87% of the total cultivated area in the region.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf8beprobabilistic regional climate projectionlarge ensemblecrop simulation modelwheat yield |
| spellingShingle | Vera Pavlova Igor Shkolnik Anastasia Pikaleva Sergey Efimov Anna Karachenkova Vladimir Kattsov Future changes in spring wheat yield in the European Russia as inferred from a large ensemble of high-resolution climate projections Environmental Research Letters probabilistic regional climate projection large ensemble crop simulation model wheat yield |
| title | Future changes in spring wheat yield in the European Russia as inferred from a large ensemble of high-resolution climate projections |
| title_full | Future changes in spring wheat yield in the European Russia as inferred from a large ensemble of high-resolution climate projections |
| title_fullStr | Future changes in spring wheat yield in the European Russia as inferred from a large ensemble of high-resolution climate projections |
| title_full_unstemmed | Future changes in spring wheat yield in the European Russia as inferred from a large ensemble of high-resolution climate projections |
| title_short | Future changes in spring wheat yield in the European Russia as inferred from a large ensemble of high-resolution climate projections |
| title_sort | future changes in spring wheat yield in the european russia as inferred from a large ensemble of high resolution climate projections |
| topic | probabilistic regional climate projection large ensemble crop simulation model wheat yield |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf8be |
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