Potential geographical distribution and environmental explanations of rare and endangered plant species through combined modeling: A case study of Northwest Yunnan, China
Abstract In recent decades, due to the effect of climate change and the interference of human activities, the species habitat index has fallen by 2%. Studying on the geographical distribution pattern and predicting the potential geographical distribution of species are of great significance for deve...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2021-10-01
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| Series: | Ecology and Evolution |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.7999 |
| _version_ | 1818558856221949952 |
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| author | Pengcheng Ye Guangfu Zhang Xiao Zhao Hui Chen Qin Si Jianyong Wu |
| author_facet | Pengcheng Ye Guangfu Zhang Xiao Zhao Hui Chen Qin Si Jianyong Wu |
| author_sort | Pengcheng Ye |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract In recent decades, due to the effect of climate change and the interference of human activities, the species habitat index has fallen by 2%. Studying on the geographical distribution pattern and predicting the potential geographical distribution of species are of great significance for developing scientific and effective biodiversity conservation strategies. Plenty of rare and endangered species that need immediate conservation are distributed in Northwest Yunnan. In this regard, this research is conducted in the purpose of predicting the potential geographical distribution of 25 rare and endangered plant species in Northwest Yunnan and analyzing the explanation capabilities of various environmental factors on the potential geographical distribution patterns of these species. Initially, the ecological niche model MaxEnt was employed to predict the potential geographical distribution of target species. Following that, the superposition method was applied to obtain the potential geographical distribution pattern of species richness on the spatial scale of the ecological niche model with a resolution of 0.05° × 0.05°. Ultimately, geographically weighted regression (GWR) model was adopted to investigate the explanation capabilities of various environmental parameters on the potential distribution patterns. The research results showed that the average value of the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) of each species was between 0.80 and 1.00, which indicated that the simulation accuracy of the MaxEnt model for each species was good or excellent. On the whole, the potential distribution area for each species was relatively concentrated and mainly distributed in the central‐western, central‐eastern and northern regions of Northwest Yunnan. In addition, the potential distribution areas of these species were between 826.33 km2 and 44,963.53 km2. In addition, the annual precipitation (Bio12), precipitation of coldest quarter (Bio19), and population density (Pop) made a greater contribution to the species distribution model, and their contribution values were 25.92%, 15.86%, and 17.95%, respectively. Moreover, the goodness‐of‐fit R2 and AIC value of the water model were 0.88 and 7,703.82, respectively, which indicated the water factor largely influenced the potential distribution of these species. These results would contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of the potential geographical distribution pattern and the distribution of suitable habitats of some rare and endangered plant species in Northwest Yunnan and would be helpful for implementing long‐term conservation and reintroduction for these species. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-14T00:17:45Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-f6ff007d1f724c23aa22c6cb65971e3b |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-7758 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-14T00:17:45Z |
| publishDate | 2021-10-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
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| series | Ecology and Evolution |
| spelling | doaj.art-f6ff007d1f724c23aa22c6cb65971e3b2022-12-21T23:25:26ZengWileyEcology and Evolution2045-77582021-10-011119130521306710.1002/ece3.7999Potential geographical distribution and environmental explanations of rare and endangered plant species through combined modeling: A case study of Northwest Yunnan, ChinaPengcheng Ye0Guangfu Zhang1Xiao Zhao2Hui Chen3Qin Si4Jianyong Wu5Nanjing Institute of Environmental Sciences Ministry of Ecology and Environment of the People’s Republic of China Nanjing ChinaJiangsu Key Laboratory of Biodiversity and Biotechnology School of Life Sciences Nanjing Normal University Nanjing ChinaNanjing Institute of Environmental Sciences Ministry of Ecology and Environment of the People’s Republic of China Nanjing ChinaNanjing Institute of Environmental Sciences Ministry of Ecology and Environment of the People’s Republic of China Nanjing ChinaNanjing Institute of Environmental Sciences Ministry of Ecology and Environment of the People’s Republic of China Nanjing ChinaNanjing Institute of Environmental Sciences Ministry of Ecology and Environment of the People’s Republic of China Nanjing ChinaAbstract In recent decades, due to the effect of climate change and the interference of human activities, the species habitat index has fallen by 2%. Studying on the geographical distribution pattern and predicting the potential geographical distribution of species are of great significance for developing scientific and effective biodiversity conservation strategies. Plenty of rare and endangered species that need immediate conservation are distributed in Northwest Yunnan. In this regard, this research is conducted in the purpose of predicting the potential geographical distribution of 25 rare and endangered plant species in Northwest Yunnan and analyzing the explanation capabilities of various environmental factors on the potential geographical distribution patterns of these species. Initially, the ecological niche model MaxEnt was employed to predict the potential geographical distribution of target species. Following that, the superposition method was applied to obtain the potential geographical distribution pattern of species richness on the spatial scale of the ecological niche model with a resolution of 0.05° × 0.05°. Ultimately, geographically weighted regression (GWR) model was adopted to investigate the explanation capabilities of various environmental parameters on the potential distribution patterns. The research results showed that the average value of the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) of each species was between 0.80 and 1.00, which indicated that the simulation accuracy of the MaxEnt model for each species was good or excellent. On the whole, the potential distribution area for each species was relatively concentrated and mainly distributed in the central‐western, central‐eastern and northern regions of Northwest Yunnan. In addition, the potential distribution areas of these species were between 826.33 km2 and 44,963.53 km2. In addition, the annual precipitation (Bio12), precipitation of coldest quarter (Bio19), and population density (Pop) made a greater contribution to the species distribution model, and their contribution values were 25.92%, 15.86%, and 17.95%, respectively. Moreover, the goodness‐of‐fit R2 and AIC value of the water model were 0.88 and 7,703.82, respectively, which indicated the water factor largely influenced the potential distribution of these species. These results would contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of the potential geographical distribution pattern and the distribution of suitable habitats of some rare and endangered plant species in Northwest Yunnan and would be helpful for implementing long‐term conservation and reintroduction for these species.https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.7999biodiversity conservationenvironmental explanationsgeographically weighted regressionhabitat suitabilityMaxEntNorthwest Yunnan |
| spellingShingle | Pengcheng Ye Guangfu Zhang Xiao Zhao Hui Chen Qin Si Jianyong Wu Potential geographical distribution and environmental explanations of rare and endangered plant species through combined modeling: A case study of Northwest Yunnan, China Ecology and Evolution biodiversity conservation environmental explanations geographically weighted regression habitat suitability MaxEnt Northwest Yunnan |
| title | Potential geographical distribution and environmental explanations of rare and endangered plant species through combined modeling: A case study of Northwest Yunnan, China |
| title_full | Potential geographical distribution and environmental explanations of rare and endangered plant species through combined modeling: A case study of Northwest Yunnan, China |
| title_fullStr | Potential geographical distribution and environmental explanations of rare and endangered plant species through combined modeling: A case study of Northwest Yunnan, China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Potential geographical distribution and environmental explanations of rare and endangered plant species through combined modeling: A case study of Northwest Yunnan, China |
| title_short | Potential geographical distribution and environmental explanations of rare and endangered plant species through combined modeling: A case study of Northwest Yunnan, China |
| title_sort | potential geographical distribution and environmental explanations of rare and endangered plant species through combined modeling a case study of northwest yunnan china |
| topic | biodiversity conservation environmental explanations geographically weighted regression habitat suitability MaxEnt Northwest Yunnan |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.7999 |
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