Modeling the dynamics and spatial heterogeneity of city growth
Abstract We propose a systems model for urban population growth dynamics, disaggregated at the county scale, to explicitly acknowledge inter and intra-city movements. Spatial and temporal heterogeneity of cities are well captured by the model parameters estimated from empirical data for 2005–2019 do...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2022-11-01
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| Series: | npj Urban Sustainability |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s42949-022-00075-9 |
| _version_ | 1797984105382543360 |
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| author | Sandro M. Reia P. Suresh C. Rao Satish V. Ukkusuri |
| author_facet | Sandro M. Reia P. Suresh C. Rao Satish V. Ukkusuri |
| author_sort | Sandro M. Reia |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract We propose a systems model for urban population growth dynamics, disaggregated at the county scale, to explicitly acknowledge inter and intra-city movements. Spatial and temporal heterogeneity of cities are well captured by the model parameters estimated from empirical data for 2005–2019 domestic migration in the U.S. for 46 large cities. Model parameters are narrowly dispersed over time, and migration flows are well-reproduced using time-averaged values. The spatial distribution of population density within cities can be approximated by negative exponential functions, with exponents varying among cities, but invariant over the period considered. The analysis of the rank-shift dynamics for the 3100+ counties shows that the most and least dense counties have the lowest probability of shifting ranks, as expected for ‘closed’ systems. Using synthetic rank lists of different lengths, we find that counties shift ranks gradually via diffusive dynamics, similar to other complex systems. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-11T06:57:21Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-f715058dec31459f865b97011ddd8bbf |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2661-8001 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-11T06:57:21Z |
| publishDate | 2022-11-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | npj Urban Sustainability |
| spelling | doaj.art-f715058dec31459f865b97011ddd8bbf2022-12-22T04:39:00ZengNature Portfolionpj Urban Sustainability2661-80012022-11-012111010.1038/s42949-022-00075-9Modeling the dynamics and spatial heterogeneity of city growthSandro M. Reia0P. Suresh C. Rao1Satish V. Ukkusuri2Lyles School of Civil Engineering, Purdue UniversityLyles School of Civil Engineering, Purdue UniversityLyles School of Civil Engineering, Purdue UniversityAbstract We propose a systems model for urban population growth dynamics, disaggregated at the county scale, to explicitly acknowledge inter and intra-city movements. Spatial and temporal heterogeneity of cities are well captured by the model parameters estimated from empirical data for 2005–2019 domestic migration in the U.S. for 46 large cities. Model parameters are narrowly dispersed over time, and migration flows are well-reproduced using time-averaged values. The spatial distribution of population density within cities can be approximated by negative exponential functions, with exponents varying among cities, but invariant over the period considered. The analysis of the rank-shift dynamics for the 3100+ counties shows that the most and least dense counties have the lowest probability of shifting ranks, as expected for ‘closed’ systems. Using synthetic rank lists of different lengths, we find that counties shift ranks gradually via diffusive dynamics, similar to other complex systems.https://doi.org/10.1038/s42949-022-00075-9 |
| spellingShingle | Sandro M. Reia P. Suresh C. Rao Satish V. Ukkusuri Modeling the dynamics and spatial heterogeneity of city growth npj Urban Sustainability |
| title | Modeling the dynamics and spatial heterogeneity of city growth |
| title_full | Modeling the dynamics and spatial heterogeneity of city growth |
| title_fullStr | Modeling the dynamics and spatial heterogeneity of city growth |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modeling the dynamics and spatial heterogeneity of city growth |
| title_short | Modeling the dynamics and spatial heterogeneity of city growth |
| title_sort | modeling the dynamics and spatial heterogeneity of city growth |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s42949-022-00075-9 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT sandromreia modelingthedynamicsandspatialheterogeneityofcitygrowth AT psureshcrao modelingthedynamicsandspatialheterogeneityofcitygrowth AT satishvukkusuri modelingthedynamicsandspatialheterogeneityofcitygrowth |