Regional disparities and seasonal differences in climate risk to rice labour
The 880 million agricultural workers of the world are especially vulnerable to increasing heat stress due to climate change, affecting the health of individuals and reducing labour productivity. In this study, we focus on rice harvests across Asia and estimate the future impact on labour productivit...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2021-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac3288 |
| _version_ | 1797747494012059648 |
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| author | Charles Simpson J Scott Hosking Dann Mitchell Richard A Betts Emily Shuckburgh |
| author_facet | Charles Simpson J Scott Hosking Dann Mitchell Richard A Betts Emily Shuckburgh |
| author_sort | Charles Simpson |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The 880 million agricultural workers of the world are especially vulnerable to increasing heat stress due to climate change, affecting the health of individuals and reducing labour productivity. In this study, we focus on rice harvests across Asia and estimate the future impact on labour productivity by considering changes in climate at the time of the annual harvest. During these specific times of the year, heat stress is often high compared to the rest of the year. Examining climate simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6), we identified that labour productivity metrics for the rice harvest, based on local wet-bulb globe temperature, are strongly correlated with global mean near-surface air temperature in the long term ( p ≪ 0.01, R ^2 > 0.98 in all models). Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C rather than 2.0 °C prevents a clear reduction in labour capacity of 1% across all Asia and 2% across Southeast Asia, affecting the livelihoods of around 100 million people. Due to differences in mechanization between and within countries, we find that rice labour is especially vulnerable in Indonesia, the Philippines, Bangladesh, and the Indian states of West Bengal and Kerala. Our results highlight the regional disparities and importance in considering seasonal differences in the estimation of the effect of climate change on labour productivity and occupational heat-stress. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:51:24Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-f7451ccf60494fe58d807503457c6e77 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:51:24Z |
| publishDate | 2021-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-f7451ccf60494fe58d807503457c6e772023-08-09T15:09:22ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262021-01-01161212400410.1088/1748-9326/ac3288Regional disparities and seasonal differences in climate risk to rice labourCharles Simpson0https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9356-5833J Scott Hosking1https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3646-3504Dann Mitchell2https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0117-3486Richard A Betts3https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4929-0307Emily Shuckburgh4https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9206-3444British Antarctic Survey , High Cross, Cambridge CB3 0ET, United Kingdom; Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, University College London , Central House, 14 Upper Woburn Place, London WC1H 0NN, United KingdomBritish Antarctic Survey , High Cross, Cambridge CB3 0ET, United Kingdom; The Alan Turing Institute , 96 Euston Rd, Somers Town, London NW1 2DB, United KingdomUniversity of Bristol , University Road, Clifton, Bristol BS8 1SS, United KingdomMet Office Hadley Centre , FitzRoy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, United Kingdom; University of Exeter Global Systems Institute , Laver Building, North Park Road, Exeter EX4 4QE, United KingdomDepartment of Computer Science and Technology, University of Cambridge , JJ Thomson Ave, Cambridge CB3 0FD, United KingdomThe 880 million agricultural workers of the world are especially vulnerable to increasing heat stress due to climate change, affecting the health of individuals and reducing labour productivity. In this study, we focus on rice harvests across Asia and estimate the future impact on labour productivity by considering changes in climate at the time of the annual harvest. During these specific times of the year, heat stress is often high compared to the rest of the year. Examining climate simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6), we identified that labour productivity metrics for the rice harvest, based on local wet-bulb globe temperature, are strongly correlated with global mean near-surface air temperature in the long term ( p ≪ 0.01, R ^2 > 0.98 in all models). Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C rather than 2.0 °C prevents a clear reduction in labour capacity of 1% across all Asia and 2% across Southeast Asia, affecting the livelihoods of around 100 million people. Due to differences in mechanization between and within countries, we find that rice labour is especially vulnerable in Indonesia, the Philippines, Bangladesh, and the Indian states of West Bengal and Kerala. Our results highlight the regional disparities and importance in considering seasonal differences in the estimation of the effect of climate change on labour productivity and occupational heat-stress.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac3288seasonalclimate changeagricultureheat stress |
| spellingShingle | Charles Simpson J Scott Hosking Dann Mitchell Richard A Betts Emily Shuckburgh Regional disparities and seasonal differences in climate risk to rice labour Environmental Research Letters seasonal climate change agriculture heat stress |
| title | Regional disparities and seasonal differences in climate risk to rice labour |
| title_full | Regional disparities and seasonal differences in climate risk to rice labour |
| title_fullStr | Regional disparities and seasonal differences in climate risk to rice labour |
| title_full_unstemmed | Regional disparities and seasonal differences in climate risk to rice labour |
| title_short | Regional disparities and seasonal differences in climate risk to rice labour |
| title_sort | regional disparities and seasonal differences in climate risk to rice labour |
| topic | seasonal climate change agriculture heat stress |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac3288 |
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