Phasing out coal for 2 °C target requires worldwide replication of most ambitious national plans despite security and fairness concerns
Ending the use of unabated coal power is a key climate change mitigation measure. However, we do not know how fast it is feasible to phase-out coal on the global scale. Historical experience of individual countries indicates feasible coal phase-out rates, but can these be upscaled to the global leve...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
IOP Publishing
2023-01-01
|
| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acadf6 |
| _version_ | 1827869745686249472 |
|---|---|
| author | Vadim Vinichenko Marta Vetier Jessica Jewell Lola Nacke Aleh Cherp |
| author_facet | Vadim Vinichenko Marta Vetier Jessica Jewell Lola Nacke Aleh Cherp |
| author_sort | Vadim Vinichenko |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Ending the use of unabated coal power is a key climate change mitigation measure. However, we do not know how fast it is feasible to phase-out coal on the global scale. Historical experience of individual countries indicates feasible coal phase-out rates, but can these be upscaled to the global level and accelerated by deliberate action? To answer this question, we analyse 72 national coal power phase-out pledges and show that these pledges have diffused to more challenging socio-economic contexts and now cover 17% of the global coal power fleet, but their impact on emissions (up to 4.8 Gt CO _2 avoided by 2050) remains small compared to what is needed for achieving Paris climate targets. We also show that the ambition of pledges is similar across countries and broadly in line with historical precedents of coal power decline. While some pledges strengthen over time, up to 10% have been weakened by the energy crisis caused by the Russo-Ukrainian war. We construct scenarios of coal power decline based on empirically-grounded assumptions about future diffusion and ambition of coal phase-out policies. We show that under these assumptions unabated coal power generation in 2022–2050 would be between the median generation in 2 °C-consistent IPCC AR6 pathways and the third quartile in 2.5 °C-consistent pathways. More ambitious coal phase-out scenarios require much stronger effort in Asia than in OECD countries, which raises fairness and equity concerns. The majority of the 1.5 °C- and 2 °C-consistent IPCC pathways envision even more unequal distribution of effort and faster coal power decline in India and China than has ever been historically observed in individual countries or pledged by climate leaders. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:48:28Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-f750119a52a74a469ad49ab55c5cb06b |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:48:28Z |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-f750119a52a74a469ad49ab55c5cb06b2023-08-09T15:20:33ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262023-01-0118101403110.1088/1748-9326/acadf6Phasing out coal for 2 °C target requires worldwide replication of most ambitious national plans despite security and fairness concernsVadim Vinichenko0https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7135-2618Marta Vetier1https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2349-6857Jessica Jewell2https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2846-9081Lola Nacke3https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0191-6902Aleh Cherp4https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9299-9792Department of Earth, Space and Environment, Chalmers University of Technology , Gothenburg, SwedenDepartment of Earth, Space and Environment, Chalmers University of Technology , Gothenburg, Sweden; Department of Environmental Sciences and Policy, Central European University , Vienna, AustriaDepartment of Earth, Space and Environment, Chalmers University of Technology , Gothenburg, Sweden; Centre for Climate and Energy Transformation, University of Bergen , Bergen, Norway; Advancing Systems Analysis, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis , Laxenburg, AustriaDepartment of Earth, Space and Environment, Chalmers University of Technology , Gothenburg, SwedenDepartment of Environmental Sciences and Policy, Central European University , Vienna, Austria; International Institute for Industrial Environmental Economics, Lund University , Lund, SwedenEnding the use of unabated coal power is a key climate change mitigation measure. However, we do not know how fast it is feasible to phase-out coal on the global scale. Historical experience of individual countries indicates feasible coal phase-out rates, but can these be upscaled to the global level and accelerated by deliberate action? To answer this question, we analyse 72 national coal power phase-out pledges and show that these pledges have diffused to more challenging socio-economic contexts and now cover 17% of the global coal power fleet, but their impact on emissions (up to 4.8 Gt CO _2 avoided by 2050) remains small compared to what is needed for achieving Paris climate targets. We also show that the ambition of pledges is similar across countries and broadly in line with historical precedents of coal power decline. While some pledges strengthen over time, up to 10% have been weakened by the energy crisis caused by the Russo-Ukrainian war. We construct scenarios of coal power decline based on empirically-grounded assumptions about future diffusion and ambition of coal phase-out policies. We show that under these assumptions unabated coal power generation in 2022–2050 would be between the median generation in 2 °C-consistent IPCC AR6 pathways and the third quartile in 2.5 °C-consistent pathways. More ambitious coal phase-out scenarios require much stronger effort in Asia than in OECD countries, which raises fairness and equity concerns. The majority of the 1.5 °C- and 2 °C-consistent IPCC pathways envision even more unequal distribution of effort and faster coal power decline in India and China than has ever been historically observed in individual countries or pledged by climate leaders.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acadf6coal phase-outpolicy diffusionenergy transitionsburden sharingfeasibility spaceclimate mitigation scenarios |
| spellingShingle | Vadim Vinichenko Marta Vetier Jessica Jewell Lola Nacke Aleh Cherp Phasing out coal for 2 °C target requires worldwide replication of most ambitious national plans despite security and fairness concerns Environmental Research Letters coal phase-out policy diffusion energy transitions burden sharing feasibility space climate mitigation scenarios |
| title | Phasing out coal for 2 °C target requires worldwide replication of most ambitious national plans despite security and fairness concerns |
| title_full | Phasing out coal for 2 °C target requires worldwide replication of most ambitious national plans despite security and fairness concerns |
| title_fullStr | Phasing out coal for 2 °C target requires worldwide replication of most ambitious national plans despite security and fairness concerns |
| title_full_unstemmed | Phasing out coal for 2 °C target requires worldwide replication of most ambitious national plans despite security and fairness concerns |
| title_short | Phasing out coal for 2 °C target requires worldwide replication of most ambitious national plans despite security and fairness concerns |
| title_sort | phasing out coal for 2 °c target requires worldwide replication of most ambitious national plans despite security and fairness concerns |
| topic | coal phase-out policy diffusion energy transitions burden sharing feasibility space climate mitigation scenarios |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acadf6 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT vadimvinichenko phasingoutcoalfor2ctargetrequiresworldwidereplicationofmostambitiousnationalplansdespitesecurityandfairnessconcerns AT martavetier phasingoutcoalfor2ctargetrequiresworldwidereplicationofmostambitiousnationalplansdespitesecurityandfairnessconcerns AT jessicajewell phasingoutcoalfor2ctargetrequiresworldwidereplicationofmostambitiousnationalplansdespitesecurityandfairnessconcerns AT lolanacke phasingoutcoalfor2ctargetrequiresworldwidereplicationofmostambitiousnationalplansdespitesecurityandfairnessconcerns AT alehcherp phasingoutcoalfor2ctargetrequiresworldwidereplicationofmostambitiousnationalplansdespitesecurityandfairnessconcerns |