The 3‐Machines Energy Transition Model: Exploring the Energy Frontiers for Restoring a Habitable Climate
Abstract To stabilize the climate, we need to urgently decarbonize our society and remove excess CO2 from the atmosphere. Ambitions for the transformation are ultimately limited by bio‐physical constraints, which cannot be transgressed even if all economic and societal obstacles could be overcome. E...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2022-10-01
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| Series: | Earth's Future |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002875 |
| _version_ | 1811198486691971072 |
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| author | Harald Desing Andreas Gerber Roland Hischier Patrick Wäger Rolf Widmer |
| author_facet | Harald Desing Andreas Gerber Roland Hischier Patrick Wäger Rolf Widmer |
| author_sort | Harald Desing |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract To stabilize the climate, we need to urgently decarbonize our society and remove excess CO2 from the atmosphere. Ambitions for the transformation are ultimately limited by bio‐physical constraints, which cannot be transgressed even if all economic and societal obstacles could be overcome. Even though it is essential to know what transformation pathways are still feasible, there is a lack of studies and models exploring bio‐physical frontiers for climate action. In this paper, we take a first step to explore the energy frontier by introducing the “3‐machines energy transition model.” This simplified representation of the global energy system includes energy feedbacks and is constrained by the maximum renewable energy potential. Simulation experiments with the model show that with most ambitious actions global peak heating may exceed 1.5°C with a chance of 14%. Simultaneously, it is still energetically possible to return to 350 ppm this century, which is considered to be a safe level for atmospheric CO2 concentration. While these energy‐constrained transformation pathways show that the climate can still be stabilized with a fair chance, they also illustrate the urgency and far‐reaching change required in society. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-12T01:32:34Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-f7a87a916b694ed3b0a0ef5758b0e326 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2328-4277 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-12T01:32:34Z |
| publishDate | 2022-10-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Earth's Future |
| spelling | doaj.art-f7a87a916b694ed3b0a0ef5758b0e3262022-12-22T03:53:27ZengWileyEarth's Future2328-42772022-10-011010n/an/a10.1029/2022EF002875The 3‐Machines Energy Transition Model: Exploring the Energy Frontiers for Restoring a Habitable ClimateHarald Desing0Andreas Gerber1Roland Hischier2Patrick Wäger3Rolf Widmer4Empa ‐ Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science and Technology Technology and Society Laboratory St. Gallen SwitzerlandEmpa ‐ Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science and Technology Technology and Society Laboratory St. Gallen SwitzerlandEmpa ‐ Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science and Technology Technology and Society Laboratory St. Gallen SwitzerlandEmpa ‐ Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science and Technology Technology and Society Laboratory St. Gallen SwitzerlandEmpa ‐ Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science and Technology Technology and Society Laboratory St. Gallen SwitzerlandAbstract To stabilize the climate, we need to urgently decarbonize our society and remove excess CO2 from the atmosphere. Ambitions for the transformation are ultimately limited by bio‐physical constraints, which cannot be transgressed even if all economic and societal obstacles could be overcome. Even though it is essential to know what transformation pathways are still feasible, there is a lack of studies and models exploring bio‐physical frontiers for climate action. In this paper, we take a first step to explore the energy frontier by introducing the “3‐machines energy transition model.” This simplified representation of the global energy system includes energy feedbacks and is constrained by the maximum renewable energy potential. Simulation experiments with the model show that with most ambitious actions global peak heating may exceed 1.5°C with a chance of 14%. Simultaneously, it is still energetically possible to return to 350 ppm this century, which is considered to be a safe level for atmospheric CO2 concentration. While these energy‐constrained transformation pathways show that the climate can still be stabilized with a fair chance, they also illustrate the urgency and far‐reaching change required in society.https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002875climate crisisenergy transitionsystem dynamicsnegative emissions |
| spellingShingle | Harald Desing Andreas Gerber Roland Hischier Patrick Wäger Rolf Widmer The 3‐Machines Energy Transition Model: Exploring the Energy Frontiers for Restoring a Habitable Climate Earth's Future climate crisis energy transition system dynamics negative emissions |
| title | The 3‐Machines Energy Transition Model: Exploring the Energy Frontiers for Restoring a Habitable Climate |
| title_full | The 3‐Machines Energy Transition Model: Exploring the Energy Frontiers for Restoring a Habitable Climate |
| title_fullStr | The 3‐Machines Energy Transition Model: Exploring the Energy Frontiers for Restoring a Habitable Climate |
| title_full_unstemmed | The 3‐Machines Energy Transition Model: Exploring the Energy Frontiers for Restoring a Habitable Climate |
| title_short | The 3‐Machines Energy Transition Model: Exploring the Energy Frontiers for Restoring a Habitable Climate |
| title_sort | 3 machines energy transition model exploring the energy frontiers for restoring a habitable climate |
| topic | climate crisis energy transition system dynamics negative emissions |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002875 |
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