A reassessment of trends and rural–urban/regional differences in the total fertility rate in China, 2000–2020: analyses of the 2020 national census data
Abstract The decline in the total fertility rate (TFR) is a key driver of population change and has important implications for population health and social development. However, China’s TFR has been a considerable controversy due to a lack of high-quality data. Therefore, this study used the 2020 na...
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| Format: | Article |
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Nature Portfolio
2024-04-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-59177-2 |
| _version_ | 1797209451657166848 |
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| author | Long Li Guangzhao Jin Xiaozhen Lai Rize Jing He Zhu |
| author_facet | Long Li Guangzhao Jin Xiaozhen Lai Rize Jing He Zhu |
| author_sort | Long Li |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The decline in the total fertility rate (TFR) is a key driver of population change and has important implications for population health and social development. However, China’s TFR has been a considerable controversy due to a lack of high-quality data. Therefore, this study used the 2020 national population census of China (NPCC) data and reverse survival method to reassess temporal trends in the TFRs and to reexamine rural–urban differences and regional variations in TFRs from 2000 to 2020 in China. Overall, there were significant gaps between the estimated and reported TFRs before 2020, and the estimated TFRs based on the 2020 NPCC data remained higher than the reported TFRs from government statistics. Although TFRs rebounded shortly in the years after the two-child policy, they have shown a wavelike decline since 2010. Additionally, the estimated TFRs fluctuated below 1.5 children per woman in urban areas compared to above 1.8 in rural areas, but the rural–urban differences continued to decrease. Regarding geographic regional variations, the estimated TFRs in all regions displayed a declining trend during 2010–2020, especially in rural areas. Large decreases of over 25% in TFRs occurred in the north, east, central, and northwest regions. In addition to changing the birth policy, the government and society should adopt comprehensive strategies, including reducing the costs of marriage, childbearing, and child education, as well as promoting work-family balance, to encourage and increase fertility levels. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-24T09:54:55Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-f7b583f71cdc4e9981001258b16fd9fa |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-24T09:54:55Z |
| publishDate | 2024-04-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj.art-f7b583f71cdc4e9981001258b16fd9fa2024-04-14T11:14:17ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222024-04-0114111410.1038/s41598-024-59177-2A reassessment of trends and rural–urban/regional differences in the total fertility rate in China, 2000–2020: analyses of the 2020 national census dataLong Li0Guangzhao Jin1Xiaozhen Lai2Rize Jing3He Zhu4Center for Population and Development Studies, Renmin University of ChinaCenter for Population and Development Studies, Renmin University of ChinaChina Center for Health Development Studies, Peking UniversitySchool of Public Administration and Policy, Renmin University of ChinaChina Center for Health Development Studies, Peking UniversityAbstract The decline in the total fertility rate (TFR) is a key driver of population change and has important implications for population health and social development. However, China’s TFR has been a considerable controversy due to a lack of high-quality data. Therefore, this study used the 2020 national population census of China (NPCC) data and reverse survival method to reassess temporal trends in the TFRs and to reexamine rural–urban differences and regional variations in TFRs from 2000 to 2020 in China. Overall, there were significant gaps between the estimated and reported TFRs before 2020, and the estimated TFRs based on the 2020 NPCC data remained higher than the reported TFRs from government statistics. Although TFRs rebounded shortly in the years after the two-child policy, they have shown a wavelike decline since 2010. Additionally, the estimated TFRs fluctuated below 1.5 children per woman in urban areas compared to above 1.8 in rural areas, but the rural–urban differences continued to decrease. Regarding geographic regional variations, the estimated TFRs in all regions displayed a declining trend during 2010–2020, especially in rural areas. Large decreases of over 25% in TFRs occurred in the north, east, central, and northwest regions. In addition to changing the birth policy, the government and society should adopt comprehensive strategies, including reducing the costs of marriage, childbearing, and child education, as well as promoting work-family balance, to encourage and increase fertility levels.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-59177-2 |
| spellingShingle | Long Li Guangzhao Jin Xiaozhen Lai Rize Jing He Zhu A reassessment of trends and rural–urban/regional differences in the total fertility rate in China, 2000–2020: analyses of the 2020 national census data Scientific Reports |
| title | A reassessment of trends and rural–urban/regional differences in the total fertility rate in China, 2000–2020: analyses of the 2020 national census data |
| title_full | A reassessment of trends and rural–urban/regional differences in the total fertility rate in China, 2000–2020: analyses of the 2020 national census data |
| title_fullStr | A reassessment of trends and rural–urban/regional differences in the total fertility rate in China, 2000–2020: analyses of the 2020 national census data |
| title_full_unstemmed | A reassessment of trends and rural–urban/regional differences in the total fertility rate in China, 2000–2020: analyses of the 2020 national census data |
| title_short | A reassessment of trends and rural–urban/regional differences in the total fertility rate in China, 2000–2020: analyses of the 2020 national census data |
| title_sort | reassessment of trends and rural urban regional differences in the total fertility rate in china 2000 2020 analyses of the 2020 national census data |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-59177-2 |
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