Coupled high-resolution GCM downscaling framework for projecting dynamics and drivers of ecosystem services in Pearl River Basin, China
The projection of future ecosystem service (ES) dynamics under SSP-RCP scenarios would be beneficial for the development of effective climate mitigation strategies for policymakers. However, current projection frameworks generally neglect the downscaling of high-resolution climate and land use data,...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2023-10-01
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| Series: | Ecological Indicators |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X23009123 |
| _version_ | 1827816140251856896 |
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| author | Zixuan Qi Yanpeng Cai Jingyu Lin Yulei Xie Linlin Yao Pan Zhang Yongyang Wang Hongjiang Guo |
| author_facet | Zixuan Qi Yanpeng Cai Jingyu Lin Yulei Xie Linlin Yao Pan Zhang Yongyang Wang Hongjiang Guo |
| author_sort | Zixuan Qi |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The projection of future ecosystem service (ES) dynamics under SSP-RCP scenarios would be beneficial for the development of effective climate mitigation strategies for policymakers. However, current projection frameworks generally neglect the downscaling of high-resolution climate and land use data, leading to uncertainties in the simulation of ESs under the SSP-RCP scenarios. To address this issue, this study proposes an integrated analysis framework to downscale climate and land use data. We first identified areas of high risk in terms of inadequate water-related ESs in the Pearl River Basin (PRB) of China. Subsequently, we analyzed key socio-environmental factors driving the dynamics of water-related ESs under future SSP-RCP scenarios. The results indicate that 1) water-related ESs in the PRB are expected to show an overall increasing trend, 2) the sub-watersheds located in the downstream is at a higher risk of experiencing insufficient supply capacity for water-related ESs, and 3) under the coupling effects of climate change, land use change, and socio-economic development, drastic changes in future land use are expected to have a stronger impact on watershed ESs than the climate (i.e., global warming). Our work provides valuable insights for policymakers and managers regarding future water and land resource planning. The proposed framework can be integrated with other hydrological or land surface models to project the spatial–temporal evolution characteristics of future watershed ESs with finer temporal resolution. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T00:10:41Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-f7d0eae95c2b4c1792cc0b68afcdfdd6 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1470-160X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T00:10:41Z |
| publishDate | 2023-10-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Ecological Indicators |
| spelling | doaj.art-f7d0eae95c2b4c1792cc0b68afcdfdd62023-09-16T05:29:54ZengElsevierEcological Indicators1470-160X2023-10-01154110770Coupled high-resolution GCM downscaling framework for projecting dynamics and drivers of ecosystem services in Pearl River Basin, ChinaZixuan Qi0Yanpeng Cai1Jingyu Lin2Yulei Xie3Linlin Yao4Pan Zhang5Yongyang Wang6Hongjiang Guo7Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Water Quality Improvement and Ecological Restoration for Watersheds, School of Ecology, Environment and Resources, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, China; Key Laboratory for City Cluster Environmental Safety and Green Development of the Ministry of Education, School of Ecology, Environment and Resources, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou, 510006, ChinaGuangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Water Quality Improvement and Ecological Restoration for Watersheds, School of Ecology, Environment and Resources, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, China; Key Laboratory for City Cluster Environmental Safety and Green Development of the Ministry of Education, School of Ecology, Environment and Resources, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou, 510006, China; Corresponding author.Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Water Quality Improvement and Ecological Restoration for Watersheds, School of Ecology, Environment and Resources, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, China; Key Laboratory for City Cluster Environmental Safety and Green Development of the Ministry of Education, School of Ecology, Environment and Resources, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou, 510006, ChinaGuangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Water Quality Improvement and Ecological Restoration for Watersheds, School of Ecology, Environment and Resources, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, China; Key Laboratory for City Cluster Environmental Safety and Green Development of the Ministry of Education, School of Ecology, Environment and Resources, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou, 510006, ChinaGuangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Water Quality Improvement and Ecological Restoration for Watersheds, School of Ecology, Environment and Resources, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, China; Key Laboratory for City Cluster Environmental Safety and Green Development of the Ministry of Education, School of Ecology, Environment and Resources, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou, 510006, ChinaGuangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Water Quality Improvement and Ecological Restoration for Watersheds, School of Ecology, Environment and Resources, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, China; Key Laboratory for City Cluster Environmental Safety and Green Development of the Ministry of Education, School of Ecology, Environment and Resources, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou, 510006, ChinaGuangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Water Quality Improvement and Ecological Restoration for Watersheds, School of Ecology, Environment and Resources, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, China; Key Laboratory for City Cluster Environmental Safety and Green Development of the Ministry of Education, School of Ecology, Environment and Resources, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou, 510006, ChinaGuangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Water Quality Improvement and Ecological Restoration for Watersheds, School of Ecology, Environment and Resources, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, China; Key Laboratory for City Cluster Environmental Safety and Green Development of the Ministry of Education, School of Ecology, Environment and Resources, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou, 510006, ChinaThe projection of future ecosystem service (ES) dynamics under SSP-RCP scenarios would be beneficial for the development of effective climate mitigation strategies for policymakers. However, current projection frameworks generally neglect the downscaling of high-resolution climate and land use data, leading to uncertainties in the simulation of ESs under the SSP-RCP scenarios. To address this issue, this study proposes an integrated analysis framework to downscale climate and land use data. We first identified areas of high risk in terms of inadequate water-related ESs in the Pearl River Basin (PRB) of China. Subsequently, we analyzed key socio-environmental factors driving the dynamics of water-related ESs under future SSP-RCP scenarios. The results indicate that 1) water-related ESs in the PRB are expected to show an overall increasing trend, 2) the sub-watersheds located in the downstream is at a higher risk of experiencing insufficient supply capacity for water-related ESs, and 3) under the coupling effects of climate change, land use change, and socio-economic development, drastic changes in future land use are expected to have a stronger impact on watershed ESs than the climate (i.e., global warming). Our work provides valuable insights for policymakers and managers regarding future water and land resource planning. The proposed framework can be integrated with other hydrological or land surface models to project the spatial–temporal evolution characteristics of future watershed ESs with finer temporal resolution.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X23009123Climate downscalingCMIP6Ecosystem servicesLand use downscalingSocioeconomic developmentSSP-RCPs |
| spellingShingle | Zixuan Qi Yanpeng Cai Jingyu Lin Yulei Xie Linlin Yao Pan Zhang Yongyang Wang Hongjiang Guo Coupled high-resolution GCM downscaling framework for projecting dynamics and drivers of ecosystem services in Pearl River Basin, China Ecological Indicators Climate downscaling CMIP6 Ecosystem services Land use downscaling Socioeconomic development SSP-RCPs |
| title | Coupled high-resolution GCM downscaling framework for projecting dynamics and drivers of ecosystem services in Pearl River Basin, China |
| title_full | Coupled high-resolution GCM downscaling framework for projecting dynamics and drivers of ecosystem services in Pearl River Basin, China |
| title_fullStr | Coupled high-resolution GCM downscaling framework for projecting dynamics and drivers of ecosystem services in Pearl River Basin, China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Coupled high-resolution GCM downscaling framework for projecting dynamics and drivers of ecosystem services in Pearl River Basin, China |
| title_short | Coupled high-resolution GCM downscaling framework for projecting dynamics and drivers of ecosystem services in Pearl River Basin, China |
| title_sort | coupled high resolution gcm downscaling framework for projecting dynamics and drivers of ecosystem services in pearl river basin china |
| topic | Climate downscaling CMIP6 Ecosystem services Land use downscaling Socioeconomic development SSP-RCPs |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X23009123 |
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