A Metapopulation Model for Preventing the Reintroduction of Bovine Viral Diarrhea Virus to Naïve Herds: Scotland Case Study
BackgroundBovine viral diarrhea (BVD) virus is one of the most problematic infectious pathogens for cattle. Since 2013, a mandatory BVD eradication program has successfully reduced the number of infected cattle living on Scottish farms; however, England remains at high prevalence and presents a risk...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2022-07-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Veterinary Science |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fvets.2022.846156/full |
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| author | Gavrila A. Puspitarani Gavrila A. Puspitarani Rowland R. Kao Ewan Colman |
| author_facet | Gavrila A. Puspitarani Gavrila A. Puspitarani Rowland R. Kao Ewan Colman |
| author_sort | Gavrila A. Puspitarani |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | BackgroundBovine viral diarrhea (BVD) virus is one of the most problematic infectious pathogens for cattle. Since 2013, a mandatory BVD eradication program has successfully reduced the number of infected cattle living on Scottish farms; however, England remains at high prevalence and presents a risk to Scotland through animal movement.MethodsWe analyze cattle movements in the UK from 2008 to 2017 and recorded incidence of BVD in Scotland from 2017 to 2020. To simulate BVD reintroduction into Scotland, we developed an epidemiological model that combines transmission between cattle and animal movements between farms. A total of four control strategies were implemented in the model: no intervention, import restriction, targeted vaccination, and combined strategy.ResultsDuring the course of the eradication scheme, movements into Scotland became increasingly distributed in regions close to the England–Scotland border. The prevalence of BVD in this region decreased at a slower rate than the rest of Scotland during the eradication scheme. Our model showed that the change in the prevalence is expected, given that the change in the patterns of movement and if vaccination is targeted to the border areas that decrease in the prevalence will be seen throughout the whole of Scotland.ConclusionScottish farms are susceptible to BVD virus reintroduction through animal imports from non-BVD-free nations with farms in border areas being the most vulnerable. Protecting the border regions provides direct and indirect protection to the rest of Scottish farms by interrupting chains of transmission. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-10T23:43:48Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-f7f2773f8fec47b791b100981b07c48f |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2297-1769 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-10T23:43:48Z |
| publishDate | 2022-07-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Veterinary Science |
| spelling | doaj.art-f7f2773f8fec47b791b100981b07c48f2022-12-22T01:28:59ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Veterinary Science2297-17692022-07-01910.3389/fvets.2022.846156846156A Metapopulation Model for Preventing the Reintroduction of Bovine Viral Diarrhea Virus to Naïve Herds: Scotland Case StudyGavrila A. Puspitarani0Gavrila A. Puspitarani1Rowland R. Kao2Ewan Colman3Roslin Institute, Royal (Dick) School of Veterinary Studies and the Roslin Institute, University of Edinburgh, Midlothian, United KingdomUnit Veterinary Public Health and Epidemiology, University of Veterinary Medicine, Vienna, AustriaRoslin Institute, Royal (Dick) School of Veterinary Studies and the Roslin Institute, University of Edinburgh, Midlothian, United KingdomRoslin Institute, Royal (Dick) School of Veterinary Studies and the Roslin Institute, University of Edinburgh, Midlothian, United KingdomBackgroundBovine viral diarrhea (BVD) virus is one of the most problematic infectious pathogens for cattle. Since 2013, a mandatory BVD eradication program has successfully reduced the number of infected cattle living on Scottish farms; however, England remains at high prevalence and presents a risk to Scotland through animal movement.MethodsWe analyze cattle movements in the UK from 2008 to 2017 and recorded incidence of BVD in Scotland from 2017 to 2020. To simulate BVD reintroduction into Scotland, we developed an epidemiological model that combines transmission between cattle and animal movements between farms. A total of four control strategies were implemented in the model: no intervention, import restriction, targeted vaccination, and combined strategy.ResultsDuring the course of the eradication scheme, movements into Scotland became increasingly distributed in regions close to the England–Scotland border. The prevalence of BVD in this region decreased at a slower rate than the rest of Scotland during the eradication scheme. Our model showed that the change in the prevalence is expected, given that the change in the patterns of movement and if vaccination is targeted to the border areas that decrease in the prevalence will be seen throughout the whole of Scotland.ConclusionScottish farms are susceptible to BVD virus reintroduction through animal imports from non-BVD-free nations with farms in border areas being the most vulnerable. Protecting the border regions provides direct and indirect protection to the rest of Scottish farms by interrupting chains of transmission.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fvets.2022.846156/fullmetapopulation modelbovine viral diarrheaprevention strategiesanimal movementsScotlandendemic livestock disease |
| spellingShingle | Gavrila A. Puspitarani Gavrila A. Puspitarani Rowland R. Kao Ewan Colman A Metapopulation Model for Preventing the Reintroduction of Bovine Viral Diarrhea Virus to Naïve Herds: Scotland Case Study Frontiers in Veterinary Science metapopulation model bovine viral diarrhea prevention strategies animal movements Scotland endemic livestock disease |
| title | A Metapopulation Model for Preventing the Reintroduction of Bovine Viral Diarrhea Virus to Naïve Herds: Scotland Case Study |
| title_full | A Metapopulation Model for Preventing the Reintroduction of Bovine Viral Diarrhea Virus to Naïve Herds: Scotland Case Study |
| title_fullStr | A Metapopulation Model for Preventing the Reintroduction of Bovine Viral Diarrhea Virus to Naïve Herds: Scotland Case Study |
| title_full_unstemmed | A Metapopulation Model for Preventing the Reintroduction of Bovine Viral Diarrhea Virus to Naïve Herds: Scotland Case Study |
| title_short | A Metapopulation Model for Preventing the Reintroduction of Bovine Viral Diarrhea Virus to Naïve Herds: Scotland Case Study |
| title_sort | metapopulation model for preventing the reintroduction of bovine viral diarrhea virus to naive herds scotland case study |
| topic | metapopulation model bovine viral diarrhea prevention strategies animal movements Scotland endemic livestock disease |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fvets.2022.846156/full |
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